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Many Reasons to Believe that the Economy will not Recover in a Short Time

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

The Unemployement and the Stock Market are rising for some time now. A new Stock Market Bubble is building up and will explode in the near future. The biggest Bubble is certainly the US Deficit Bubble.

The Stock Market Bubble and the Deficit Bubble will explode as soon as the major creditors (China, India, …) of the US will move out of the Dollar. This is happening already.

The Customers are the backbone of the Economy and the Leaders understand very well that the Economy is governed by Psychology. So Bad News is hidden en Good News is exaggerated. The Expectations of Analysts are always beaten and the downfall is falling slower than before.

The Economy is still in a terrible state and this state is getting worse every day. The unemployement is still rising and will rise for a very long time because companies are getting broke or are rationalizing everything that is possible.

They replace their employees by IT-Technology and Cheap Labor. The customers are not buying, they are saving more and more money for a rainy day or are paying back their debts.

Saving money will not stimulate the economy. It stimulates unemployment. The rising unemployement results in more foreclosures and problems with credit card debts. The Economic Downturn is just at its beginning.

Economist John Williams says that– if the unemployment rate was calculated as it was during the Great Depression the unemployment figures for July 2009 rose to 20.6%. According to an article summarizing the projections of former International Monetary Fund Chief Economist and Harvard University Economics Professor Kenneth Rogoff and University of Maryland Economics Professor Carmen Reinhart,… unemployment could rise to 22% within the next 4 years or so.”

The Scenario of the Current Downturn is highly comparable with the Scenario of the Great Depression with one exception. The current Downturn is much deeper than the other. We are approaching the Biggest Global Economic Crisis in Human History.

The current investors base their policy on positive news and ignore the bad news. They believe the economy will rise when the customer-confidence is rising or when the downfall of the economy is “slowing down” or “bottoming”. They don’t see that a slowing down of a downfall is still a downfall.

The investors, the Doves, act just like the behavioral economists predict they will act. They read the headlines, believe the Hawks and are not aware of the (Money) Illusion the Government, the Media and the Banks are creating. The Hawks know better. They buy Silver, Gold and certainly the best investment, Oil.

Nouriel Roubini has a more realistic view on the economy. In his article Ten Risks to Global Growth he analyses the risks that could block the recovery of the economy and his conclusion is highly pessimistic.

According to Roubini the major cause of the crisis is overspending. Overspending is a normal activity when the Kondratiev-Cycle is in the state of Autumn. The debts are always repayed in the next phase, Winter. In the Kondratiev Winter the economy is purged and cleansed. This phase started around 2000 and will be finished around 2013. In the Winter-State you have to stay in cash or invest is Gold and Silver.

At this moment the investors don’t know what currency they have to chose for their cash-reserves. Usually the Dollar was a Save Heaven but the current policy of the FED to expand the amount of Dollars to an almost unbelievable amount is seen as a huge risk.

The Creditors (China, India, ..) of the US are already creating an alternative currency and are secretly and slowly moving out of the Dollar. If the Trust in the Dollar has gone the US Economy will go bankrupt.

The big problem with the current Cycle is that we have moved to the Level of Earth. In the last downfall of the Kondratiev Cycle other parts of the world were decoupled. They moved in a complementary mode. The Down of one part of the Earth was compensated by an Up somewhere else.

At this moment the complementary parts are synchronized and act and react according to the same rhythm. This rhythm is related to a longer term cycle that almost nobody is aware of. This cycle with a periodicity of 250 years is called the Secular Cycle.

The current level of integration of the World Economy is very dangerous. The production-processes of the Earth are highly rationalized and integrated. When one process stops the rest of the processes also has to stop.

The very high level of rationalization causes cascades or avalanches. The fast and slow avalanches generate sudden bursts of unemployment and financial disasters. The Car Industry and the Financial Industry are good examples. At this moment the avalanches start new avalanches in completely different branches of the tree of the World Economy.

The Crisis in the Banking Industry puts a large part of the Corporate Sector under severe financial stress. Firms that in the past would have been able to roll over their loans, bonds and debts now face a liquidity crisis that may lead them into costly debt restructuring.

This will affect the Banking Industry and will also put a high strain on the Bailout capacity of the Governments who are not able to leant money or inflate money until eternity.

The only solution that is left is to Rationalize even more than the Companies were planning to do. Their only solution is to speed up the use of IT (Use the Internet) and fire the employees. It is very clear that the use of IT in Companies is still in its infancy. Many manual activities can be replaced by software. The total effect will be a worsening of the current crisis.

To stop the cascades governments are starting to Protect and Regulate their Economies. The Worldwide Cooperative Institutions are losing their grip and the Free Market Economy is on its return.

Big Companies are splitted according to the old Boundaries of Power. The expansion and integration of the EG is blocked because the member states suddenly have conflicting objectives. The Rich Countries don’t want to help the Poor Countries because the Rich Countries are getting poorer with the minute.

Not only the poor member states of the EG are getting into big trouble. The same applies to the Underdeveloped Countries. The poor Countries of the World are on their own. Everybody is in the Survival mode and The Fittest, The Rich, will as always Survive.

The world is not only hit by a Economic and a Cultural crisis. The world is also hit by a Climate Crisis. Although human activity plays an important (negative) role the Cycle of the Climate related to the activities of our Sun and the Movement of Earth in our System (the Precession Cycle) is much more important.

The current change in Climate is irreversible and will have a major effect on the world economy. Climate change and ecological misuse are the major factor why Societies collapse.

The last factor and perhaps most important factor is the Energy Consumption of the World. This consumption is not only affecting the Climate but it also facilitates a huge highly integrated Transport-System.

This System is the Backbone of the Integrated Value-Chains of the Western World. The Western World is completely dependent on the transport system for its Industrial Production and the Supply of Food.

The Transport System has a devastating effect on the poor countries in the World. To make enough money to survive they have to export their products to the Western Markets ignoring their own needs.

It is certain that the supply of oil and gas is lower than the increasing demand. The resources all over the world are going down. The total effect of this all will be a dramatic rise in price. This will affect the rich countries and in particular the US. They are already the major importer of energy in the World and when you import something you have to export something else to keep the financial balance in order.

As you already know the deficit of the US is spectacular and the only reason the US is not broke is the special role of the Dollar. If the economy recovers the demand and the prices will rise and the US Economy will slow down immediately.

What is Going to Happen?

Every scenario leads to a long term decline of the Economy, our Culture and our Civilization. The theory of the short term and long term cycles is right and it is very stupid to ignore these theories.

According to the Panarchy Model the world is too connected and this leads to an increasing rigidity in its goal to retain its state. The rigidity reduces resilience and the capacity of the system to absorb change, thus increasing the threat of abrupt change. The world is unable to cope with the changes of climate and culture that are happening now. Therefore we will see the collapse of the accumulated connections and the destruction of bound up knowledge and capital.

The highly integrated structures of the Earth (the Cooperative Institutions, the Big Companies, Governments AND the Transport System) are bound to desintegrate. The impact on the local structures is immens. Communities will have to grow their own food, manufacture and repair their own tools, create their own currency etc etc on a local level again.

Most of these structures have outsourced these functions to places far away and don’t have the skills nor the resources to do this. The fittest, the Haws, will survive but it is unclear if the Doves will accept this situation forever. A Rise of the Masses just like the French Revolution in 1789 (almost 250 years ago!) is possible.

The world is moving to a very fast transformation. The only thing that can be said when we use the Panarchy Model is that it will move back to a stable state before the expansion started and start all over again. The Wisdom of the Old Civilizations that survived earlier Collapses is very valuable. These lessons are very easy to comprehend.

Civilizations die because the humans don’t want to Move with the Cycles, don’t Cooperate and don’t Respect Mother Nature. When Civilizations Collaps even the Hawks lose Everything!

LINKS

Peter Schiff, Why the US Economy will Collaps this Year

How the Fed is cheating the citizins. About Deflation.

Why the Labormarket is Much Worse than we Think

Why the Current Crisis is comparable with the Great Depression

About Behavioral Economics, Why Hawks always Win and Doves always Lose

Nouriel Roubini, Ten Risks to Global Growth

About The Kondratiev Winter and the Generations Theory

About the End of the US Dollar

Why the US Defense Budget will Destroy the US Economy

Peter Turchin, About Secular Cycles

The Complete Text of the Book of Turchin

About the Problems the Real Estate Market is Facing

Why Rationalization is the cause of the current Crisis

About Cascades and Avalanches

Jared Diamond, Why Societies Collapse

About the World Food Crisis

Jeff Rubin, Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller

About Peak Oil, The Model that Predicts the End of Oil and Gas

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About Dark Matter

Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

In the beginning was the Void (Ø) and the Void was in Perfect Rest.

Suddenly a Burst of Creativity, a Huge Statistical Fluctuation of the Zero-Point-Field, generated the First Trinity (-0, Ø,+0). At that moment the Void (Ø) was transformed into the Egg of the Nothing (0) and the One (2**0 =1) was created.

In the next steps the Trinity expands into the Two (2**1= 2= 1+1,Ying/Yang), the Four Forces (2**2=4=3+1), the Seven Universes and the Seven Chakras (2**3= 8= 7+1)  and many other Levels ((2**n)-1).

The Trinity is always Balanced in the Middle. The Sum of its parts is always 0, the Intersection of its Sets is always Empty (Ø) and the Union of its Sets is always the Whole.

Every part of the expansion of the Whole is Distinct, not Overlapping. Every expansion of the Trinity has to obey the law of voiding which means that two forces or parts that are created by an enfolding of the Trinity have to be Complementary.

Many people use, the Duality, the Binary, as their basic reasoning system. They are convinced that the World is divided into the Good and the Bad, the Rich and the Poor, the Male and the Female, the Master and the Slave, the Capitalists and the Socialists or the Producers and the Consumers.

They have transformed the Triangle of the Trinity into a Hierarchy with the most Powerful Being at the Top of the Triangle.

When we look at the original concept of the Trinity, the Top of the Trinity is “nothing” and the Two at the Bottom of the Trinity are Mirrors. They are Two Sides of the Coin of the Trinity.

Capitalism (the Rich) and Socialism (the Poor) are both striving for dominance over the other. The Rich don’t want to loose their money and the Poor want to become Rich. When the Poor are Rich a new class is waiting to fight the dominance of the old Class. In the end the only thing that persists is the Struggle for Dominance.

What Went Wrong?

According to the old Myths the First Beings were Bisexual. They were able to reproduce themselves. At a certain point in time the Creator of Our Universe, the Demiurge, created a split between the Male and the Female. From that time on Males and Females are fighting for Dominance.

The Male is the power of Compression and the Female is the Power of Expansion. Compression and Expansion generate a Spiral, a Tornado. In the Center of the Tornado is the Void. The division between Male and Female is the Power behind the Movement of the Spiral, the Cycle of History, the Path of Destiny.

During the Splitting and Merging of the Trinities Seven Separate Mirror Universes were created. We are able to detect these Universes by the influence of one of the four Forces, Gravity. The Seven Separate Universes are responsible for 6/7 (85%) of the Gravity in Our Universe, the Dark Matter.

The Stages of the enfolding of the Trinities have been named in many cultures with many different names. The Jewish Mystics named the stages the Sephirot. Their model is about the Outside World, the Body of God. The Indian Scientists named them the Chakras.

They were focused on the Inside World, the Body of Man. The Jewish Model contains the first Two Stages (7+3=10 Sephirot), the Indian Model only contains the second stage (7 Chakra’s).The main reason is that we, the Humans, live Inside the first Trinity. The first Triniy, that came out of the Ein-Sof, the Void, consists of Chokmah (Time) and Binah (Space).

What is the Big Secret?

The Human is made in the Image of God. The Body of God, the Adam Kadmon, is reflected in the Body of Man. If the Body of God, The Universe, transforms the Body of Man follows. The Universe is transforming all the time but major transformations, changes of form (paradigm shifts) are rare.

The Universe is a Highly Ordered Repeating Structure that suddenly produces a Highly Violent Chaotic Event. This happens when a Transformation takes place. The General Structure is not Chaotic at all. The big problem is that most of the Humans don’t see the Beauty, the Symmetry, behind the Chaos.

What has Happened?

Before Creation the Void, the Zero-Point-Field was in a state of Rest. At a certain moment the statistical fluctuations of the Zero-Point- Field produced a Highly Exceptional Burst, a Supreme Act of Creation, the Big Bang.  At that moment  Time, Space and Space/Time were created.

The Second Enfolding, the creation of the Four Forces resulted in a Huge Expansion of Space/Time. In every step a new Level (Expansion of the Void, Space, Time, Space/Time, and Expansion of Space/Time) of the Enfolding is created. At this moment many billions years after the first enfolding the Universe consists of 42 levels.

Every Level is governed by his Own Clock. The Clocks at a lower levels tick with a higher Frequency than the Clocks at a higher level. Every Clock in the Universe is governed by the Bronze Mean. The Bronze Mean generates a Fractal Pattern called a Penrose Tiling or a Quasi Crystal. These patterns are examples of structures that are Structured AND Chaotic. They are Structured when you are Aware of the Symmetries, The Beauty, behind the Pattern.

In essence Nothing went wrong. The Body of God was Splitted, Merged and Replicated on many levels. The Bodies of the Humans went through the Seven Stages of the Second Cycle. The Good and the Bad, the Male and the Female, Production and Consumption all played their role in the enfolding of the Nothing, the Infinite Potential. At this moment we are approaching the Birth of a new Level (43).

What is Going to Happen?

We are Very Close to a Next Step of the Sequence of the Bronze Mean. This 43rd step will generate a new Level in the Universe and the Human Being. In the Universe the Seven Separate Universes will Unite. In the Human the Seven Chakra’s will Merge.

When the Seven Universes merge you will be able to communicate with Comparable Conscious Beings that have enfolded in the Mirror Universes. It will be possible to visit the other Universes with your own Personal Time/Space-Ship, the Light Body.

Every Universe is connected to a Chakra. So there is a Survivor Universe (Root Chakra, The Serpents) and a Universe full of very Wise Light Beings (The Third Eye). The opening of the Veil between the Universes could explain the many strange encounters with extraterrestials that is are currently taking place.

When the Chakra’s merge a Human becomes Enlightened. Enlightment comes with a deep insight in the beauty of the Whole and the experience of Union ( Love). When a Human is Enlightened the Ego dissolves into the Collective Unconsciousness.

What will Happen until the Transformation takes Place?

The Unconsciousness of every Human knows what is going to happen. It knows that we will enter a Chaotic Period in which the Old Structures will collapse to make place for the new ones. In the new State there is no place for the Ego.

Therefore the Ego will generate Fear, Doubt and Depression until the Human finally surrenders. Until that time many Ego’s will take care of themselves without taking Care of the Others. This wil create a very instable violent state. It is not hard to imagine that this will Deepen the Crisis.

Will Every Human participate in the Transformation?

This is not certain. The expansion of the Bronze Mean shows two possibilities. One of them is a Jump into a New Level. The other is a Harmonic Structure that could be called Paradise on Earth. The choice will be to Stay in Paradise or to Move to Heaven.

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How to get Very Rich during a Depression

Thursday, November 27th, 2008

The Kondratiev Wave predicts the long term behavior of the Economy. If you look at the Kondratiev Wave, the next stage after the Depression (Winter) is called Spring. Spring is the Time of the Seeds (new Ideas). They where harvested in Autumn. During the time of the Winter the seeds are dormant.

When the Harvest was rich, Winter is a time of Contemplation and Rest. Nature hibernates. Plants, Trees and many Animals sleep and are in the state of the Unconsciousness. When the Harvest was poor, Winter is a time of big trouble.

There will be shortages of Food and Fuel. When the Harvest was poor Winter is a time of Social Unrest and even Social Conflict. During the Kondratiev Winter Big Wars are fought and the Dark Side of the Unconscioussness shows itself in the extreme rise of Psychological Problems (Stress, Addictions, Paranoid) and Dark Religious Movements.

During Winter Shares, Paper money and other Imaginary forms of Wealth are worthless. When you want to buy something you have to deliver real value (Cash, Gold, Silver).

It is very clear that You can Make Big Money during a cold winter when you have gathered a huge pile of primary commodities (“raw materials”). During Winter raw materials are exchanged for other raw materials. When you don’t have access to these materials the only thing that is left for you is Charity.

When you are the owner of raw materials and you are making a lot of money you are Making Use of the Situation. During a cold winter you have to give to the poor and the sick. To make it very clear Making Big Money during a Depression is a Crime.

When you are Rich you can accumulate Social Value by giving away your Material Wealth to Others. During a Depression Material Wealth has to be transformed into Social Wealth to prevent a Social Conflict. This investment will pay back with a lot of social interest during Spring and Summer.

Unconditional Giving, Charity,  is a very old fashioned concept. At this moment we “give” a loan for equipment financing or whatever reason, and we “ask”  interest but “giving and asking” are really “demanding”. We want to make sure that what we give will be returned in the same state. More Money for Money, an Two Eyes for an One Eye.

When we don’t want to deepen the down path of the Depression we have to leave behind the Behavior of the Expansion phase of the Cycle, Summer. When the Economy expands it is “easy” to accumulate Wealth. Loans and interest are helpful to bridge a temporary dip in the flow of cash. Summer is a time of fast moving Ups and Downs in the Economy (Recessions).

It is not strange that we are copying the behavior of the Summer. Long Term Cycles just like very fast moving Cycles are not noticed by the Human. They are generational. The pattern repeats every 50 to 60 year so the people that must be Aware of the current situation are Old. They are the grandmothers and the grandfathers, the older people (>75).

Moving through a Depression needs Wisdom and a Long Term View. A Depression is the time to Listen to the Older Generation. Hopefully they have Learned from their Mistakes at that time.

LINK

About the Kondratiev

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About the Grand Chessboard of Zbigniew Machiavelli

Monday, November 24th, 2008

I am afraid the big change of Obama will not change anything at all. It looks like the financial elite has placed a new pawn on the chessboard but the game and the players stay the same. The Geopolitical Players are defining a strategy to beat Russia and China.

Obama is surrounding himself with old fashioned politicians who are part of the old fashioned networks of the financial Elite. They are part of the famous World Conspiracy Groups like the Bilderberg Group, the Council of Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission.

Obama is announcing the old-fashioned New Deal of Franklin D. Roosevelt to save the US and will use the same money printing machine of the FED to finance his plan.

The big difference with the time of Roosevelt is that the US is completely broke and has to start to pay his debts. Obama is postponing this moment because he knows (and the Elite knows) that the US Citizens are not prepared to move back to a state of poverty.

To save and to create jobs Obama has to Protect the US Economy againts the outflow of jobs to the New Economies, China and India. The emerging state of economic protection will generate huge effects in the World. When the US starts to protect its market others will follow soon.

The big question is if every country in the world will support the new policy of the US. The United States is still befriended with the four oil-rich Gulf States.

The US has already asked them 300 billion dollars to prevent its financial meltdown. The US is still by far wasting the biggest amount biggest of energy in the world and the Arabs need the US to sell their oil.

The biggest adversaries of the US, China and Russia are united in what is called the Shanghai Cooperation. The cooperation is connected to India and Pakistan but also to countries like South Africa and Brazil (BRIC).

One of the important geo-political strategists of the US is Zbigniew Brzezinski. He was one of the advisors of Obama on foreign policy. Brzezinski was also National Security Adviser of President Carter, the creator of the Trilateral Commission and an Associate of Henry Kissinger.

A few citations: “…The last decade of the twentieth century has witnessed a tectonic shift in world affairs. For the first time ever, a non-Eurasian power has emerged not only as a key arbiter of Eurasian power relations but also as the world’s paramount power. The defeat and collapse of the Soviet Union was the final step in the rapid ascendance of a Western Hemisphere power, the United States, as the sole and, indeed, the first truly global power…”

“About 75 per cent of the world’s people live in Eurasia, and most of the world’s physical wealth is there as well, both in its enterprises and underneath its soil. Eurasia accounts for 60 per cent of the world’s GNP and about three-fourths of the world’s known energy resources.”"The most immediate task is to make certain that no state or combination of states gains the capacity to expel the United States from Eurasia.”

The strategy and tactics of Brzezinski and his colleagues (Kissinger) have inspired every government of the US until now. It becomes very clear why there is a war in Afghanistan and why Irak had to be destroyed. The aim is to create one dominant power that is controlling the World called the United States.

The power of the Sovjet Union was destroyed by Financial Warfare and Political Instability (Kosovo) generated by the US and its allies (including the Netherlands!).

The Sovjet Union has recovered and has restored its old fashioned control structure. It is has started a new expansion strategy and slowly moving to the West. Putin knows that NATO is unable to resist his policy because the focus of NATO is in the East.

Putin also knows that the West (especiallyGermany) needs his huge resouces of oil and gaz. He knows that the Pipelines are the most strategic tools to manipulate the EG.

He also knows that Germany is deep within not an Adversary but a Companion. The only thing he has to do is break the EG. This will happen soon because of the big internal differences between the Rich and the Poor Countries.

China has become one of the most powerful nations in the World. An alliance between the two (and with Germany the tree) old fashioned adversaries of the US is a super treat for the dominance of the West.

It is very clear that the US is losing its strategic positions in every part of the world except the Middle East. In this area Iran is the most important adversary and it is very clear why the US together with its ally Israel is trying to play the same trick it used with Irak to start a new war.

What will happen?

The CIA will go on with its destabilization programs. They will create new enemys of the West to justify military activity (Afghanistan). Military activity always helps to stimulate the economy and keeps the focus of the citizens away from the real game.

Financial Warfare has proven to be a very effective tactic. The activities of the FED will be aimed at destabilizing China. Russia is already in trouble. The closure of the US Economy will stop the economic explosion of China. The only thing that is left for the BRIC-countries is to create an internal market and a common currency. Other countries in the world have to make a choice. Will they follow the leadership of the US or join the still growing economies of BRIC. In the End the Old fashioned Cold War between the US and the Communists (Russia/China/India,…) will start again.

The last and the most helpful activity to destroy the enemies and to speed up the economy will be an old fashioned (Third) World War. The battlefield of this war has to be far away from the US to avoid “nasty” consequences. Eastern Europe (Germany, Poland, …) is by far the best place to act. You have to do this without disturbing the relationship with EU. This is simple.

The big trouble is that Germany and Russia have already negociated a secret treaty. They have divided Europe into two territories that have a lot in common with the famous Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Hilter and Stalin. The only thing Germany has to do is to break the EG into two parts.  This will generate a high tension between the old adversaries Germany and France.  

The EU will be in big trouble because of the economic crisis and every country will act on its own as soon as the weak countries (Spain, Greece, Portugal, Eastern Europe) really get into trouble. They will protect their economies and this will destabilize the European Union. The only thing you have to do to is to tease the Russians. They just want to be respected as a Super Power. Isolate them and show them that they are a powerless nation and they will become terribly angry.

The geopolitical players and followers of Machiavelli (Kissinger, Brzezinski, Poetin) don’t care about human lifes. They don’t care about democracy. Their only aim is to stay in power and to increase their power.

Machiavelli became famous by his book the Prince. It is a political cookbook for politicians to stay in power. The most important lesson is deceit. The politician has to show all the positive qualities needed to be loved by the people. He has to be merciful, faithful, humane, frank, and religious, but he should only seem to have these qualities.

A politician cannot truly have these qualities because at times it is necessary to act against them. The only ethic that matters is one that is beneficial to the politician in dealing with the concerns of his state. If his country wants a redeemer he has to look like a redeemer but behind the scene everything is allowed. You have to admit Obama is a great Actor and the Role of the Redeemer fits him well.

To defeat your opponents you have to commit them to your cause. If you are blamed. They are blamed also. The best way to beat the Clintons is to make them your partner. Hillary understands and practiced Machiavelli.

Introducing change is the most stupid thing you can do. You have to make everybody believe that the old is new. Everybody believes the New Deal was succesful and Roosevelt was a succesful president. So why not copy his scenario and (re)play his role.

`We must bear in mind, then, that there is nothing more difficult and dangerous, or more doubtful of success, than an attempt to introduce a new order of things in any state. For the innovator has for enemies all those who derived advantages from the old order of things, whilst those who expect to be benefited by the new institutions will be but lukewarm defenders. This indifference arises in part from fear of their adversaries who were favoured by the existing laws, and partly from the incredulity of men who have no faith in anything new that is not the result of well-established experience. Hence it is that, whenever the opponents of the new order of things have the opportunity to attack it, they will do it with the zeal of partisans, whilst the others defend it but feebly, so that it is dangerous to rely upon the latter.”

When his Power is at stake the Prince has to start a war.

“A PRINCE ought to have no other aim or thought, nor select anything else for his study, than war and its rules and discipline; for this is the sole art that belongs to him who rules, and it is of such force that it not only upholds those who are born princes, but it often enables men to rise from a private station to that rank. And, on the contrary, it is seen that when princes have thought more of ease than of arms they have lost their states. And the first cause of your losing it is to neglect this art; and what enables you to acquire a state is to be master of the art“.

The big problem are mercenaries. To fight a war you need warriors who are dedicated to You and Nobody Else. Always please the Military Elite.

“He who holds his State by means of mercenary troops can never be solidly or securely seated. For such troops are disunited, ambitious, insubordinate, treacherous, insolent among friends, cowardly before foes, and without fear of God or faith with man. Whenever they are attacked defeat follows; so that in peace you are plundered by them, in war by your enemies. And this because they have no tie or motive to keep them in the field beyond their paltry pay“

When you want to fight a war fight a war with people who are not thinking in terms of strategy. The Chinese are highly stategic. They practise the Art of War of Sun Tzu. When you apply Sun Tzu you never fight a war. You exhaust your opponent. The best way to create a war is to tease your opponent to destroy himself.

My advice

If the current pattern is sustained my advice would be to find a hiding place. This hiding place has to be outside the area of the big earthquakes. It also has to be rather close to the equator because we will soon experience a new Ice Age. You have to be able to grow your own food so you need seeds and soil. Avoid the contaminated area’s in the world. The last thing is to avoid the battle ground of the last big war (Germany, Poland, Sweden).

How about Spain or Portugal?

Of course I could be wrong. Perhaps he is the real redeemer and I am deceiting myself because I don’t believe in honest politicians anymore. The best thing to do not to wait and see but to Act. The Citizens of the World don’t need big government to get into action. Creating networks is simple and everything you need is somewhere already available (even money). It is all about making the right connection!

LINKS

About Financial Warfare

About the FED Conspiracy

 The Grand Chessboard — American Primacy And It’s Geostrategic Imperatives,” Zbigniew Brzezinski, Basic Books, 1997

The text of the Prince of Machiavelli

Why the Russians always win a war

About the coming Ice Age

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About the Struggle of the Classes

Monday, October 20th, 2008

E-cigarette aerosol contains fewer numbers and lower levels of most toxicants than does smoke from combustible tobacco cigarettes. Exposure to nicotine and to toxicants from the aerosolization of e-cigarette ingredients is dependent on user and device characteristics. Laboratory tests of e-cigarette ingredients, in vitro toxicological tests, and short-term human studies suggest that e-cigarettes are likely to be far less harmful than combustible tobacco cigarettes. However, the absolute risks of the products cannot be unambiguously determined at this time. Long-term health effects, of particular concern for youth who become dependent on such products, are not yet clear.

Although e-cigarette use might cause youth to transition to combustible tobacco products, it might also increase adult cessation of combustible tobacco cigarettes. The net public health effect, harm or benefit, of e-cigarettes depends on three factors: their effect on youth initiation of combustible tobacco products, their effect on adult cessation of combustible tobacco products, and their intrinsic toxicity. If e-cigarette use by adult smokers leads to long-term abstinence from combustible tobacco cigarettes, the benefit to public health could be considerable. Without that health benefit for adult smokers, e-cigarette use could cause considerable harm to public health in the short and long term due both to the inherent harms of exposure to e-cigarette toxicants and to the harms related to subsequent combustible tobacco use by those who begin using e-cigarettes in their youth. Find out the most unharmful products at vaprzon.

Population modeling is a useful strategy to help estimate the balance of potential benefits and harms from e-cigarettes in the short term before more definite scientific data are available. Factors that would promote the potential health benefits associated with these products include determining with more precision

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Suggested Citation:”Summary.” National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Public Health Consequences of E-Cigarettes. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24952.×

under which conditions e-cigarettes could serve as an effective smoking cessation aid, discouraging their use among youth through tobacco control strategies such as education and restrictions on products particularly appealing to youth, and increasing their safety through data-driven product engineering and design.

Millions of Americans use electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), even as rates of smoking1 combustible tobacco cigarettes continue to decline among youth and adults. In 2016, youth e-cigarette use was substantially higher than cigarette smoking or use of any other tobacco product. A common picture emerges from national surveys. Prevalence of use increases with age in children and youth. E-cigarette use also varies by gender, with typically greater use among boys than girls. E-cigarette use also varies by race and ethnicity, with higher rates of use among youth who identify as Hispanic and non-Hispanic white compared with black, Asian, and other races. Early results suggest that use stabilized or decreased in youth between 2015 and 2016, despite increases between 2011 and 2015 across a range of measures and surveys. Substantial proportions of youth report using non-nicotine electronic cigarettes. Rates of e-cigarette use among adults are relatively low when compared with youth e-cigarette use and to adult combustible tobacco cigarette smoking. Most adult e-cigarette users report currently using other tobacco products. Among adults, as among youth, patterns of use vary by demographic subgroups—age, gender, and race and ethnicity. E-cigarette use is generally greatest among young adults and decreases with age in adults. Few adults begin using e-cigarettes who are not already using combustible tobacco cigarettes.

Despite their popularity, little is known about their health effects, and perceptions of potential risks and benefits of e-cigarette use vary widely among the public, users of e-cigarettes, health care providers, and the public health community. For example, whether e-cigarette use confers lower risk of addiction compared with combustible tobacco cigarettes is one point of controversy. Electronic cigarettes contain constituents that are not inert and are likely to have some negative health effects on their own. However, because the known risks of combustible tobacco are so great, understanding the net public health effect of e-cigarettes requires understanding not only the inherent risks of e-cigarettes, but also the relationship between e-cigarette use and combustible tobacco cigarette use.

Furthermore, concerns have been raised that e-cigarettes will induce youth to begin using combustible tobacco cigarettes. E-cigarette use among youth and young adults is especially worrying if e-cigarettes cause

___________________

1 The committee uses the verb “smoke” to refer to use of combustible tobacco cigarettes and “vape” to refer to use of e-cigarettes. Similarly “smoker” refers to someone who uses combustible tobacco cigarettes.

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Suggested Citation:”Summary.” National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Public Health Consequences of E-Cigarettes. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24952.×

dependence or the normalization of smoking behavior, and subsequently lead youth and young adults to start smoking combustible tobacco cigarettes. This is of particular concern for youth who otherwise would never have smoked. Among adult populations, to the extent that e-cigarette use promotes either reduction or complete abstinence from combustible tobacco smoking, e-cigarettes may help to reduce health risks.

E-cigarettes are regulated as tobacco products2 by the Center for Tobacco Products of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convene a committee of experts to conduct a review of the emerging evidence about e-cigarettes and health, make recommendations for the improvement of this research, and highlight gaps that are a priority for future research. The Statement of Task can be found in Box S-1.

The committee undertook a comprehensive review of the scientific literature regarding key constituents in e-cigarettes, human health effects, initiation and cessation of combustible tobacco cigarette use, and harm reduction. The committee considered the quality of individual studies, as well as the totality of the evidence to provide structured and consistent conclusions on the strength of the evidence. See Box S-2 for a summary of the framework the committee used for those conclusions. The committee notes that the framework is a guide, but that a great deal of expert judgment—in the evaluation of individual studies and in bodies of evidence—is always involved. The Annex to this Summary includes a compilation of the conclusions grouped by level of evidence, whereas they are listed by type of outcome in the sections that follow.

CONSTITUENTS
E-cigarettes contain liquids (referred to as e-liquids) that are aerosolized upon operation of the device. E-liquids typically contain nicotine (although some users prefer zero-nicotine solutions), flavorings, and humectants. Nicotine is a well-understood compound with known central and peripheral nervous system effects. It causes dependence and addiction, and exposure to nicotine from e-cigarettes likely elevates the cardiovascular disease risk in people with pre-existing cardiovascular disease(s), but the cardiovascular risk in people without cardiovascular disease(s) is uncertain. Based on studies of long-term users of nicotine replacement
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Public Health Consequences of E-Cigarettes. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24952.

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About the End of the Stock Market

Monday, October 6th, 2008

The Amsterdam Stock Exchange was the first stock exchange to introduce continuous trade in the early 17th century. The Dutch pioneered short selling and every other “modern” instrument. Until the sixties Government and the Big Companies were controlled by about 200 Rich Dutch Families (including the Royal Family). They controlled Society and took care of Stability.

In the 17th century the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was introduced by the Dutch Government. The VOC was the first multinational in the world and the first company to issue stock. It was the first mega corporation possessing quasi-governmental powers, including the ability to wage war, negotiate treaties, coin money, and establish colonies.

In the 17th century about 200 families, the so called Regenten, were in control of the Netherlands. The families promoted their members in every influential position available.

The Democracy of the Netherlands was in reality an Oligarchy. The “oligarchic way” of decision making, the Dutch Polder Model, is still the most important way to reach consensus in the Netherlands. Everything happens “behind closed doors”.

Until 1917 only the Rich people were allowed to Vote. The Rich Voted with their Money. In the beginning of the 20th century (1917) the universal suffrage for male citizens was introduced in the Netherlands. Two years later (1919) the female part of the country followed.

The Rich not only voted with their money they were also the most important owners of the Stocks. With the power of their stock and their money they helped their families to acquire important positions in the State and the Companies.

Until the Sixties the Rich maintained a very powerful social network based on reciprocity in the Netherlands. This network was not a local network. It was an international network. The influential Dutch Families were connected to comparable networks all over the world.

Around the Seventies the power of the Rich Families went down. They lost their influence in Parliament and in the Companies. The Flower Power Generation took over the Power at every Level of Society. After some time most of them lost their Ideals of Peace and Harmony.

They started to buy houses and shares and were helped by the Rising of the Economic Kondratiev Cycle. In contrary to the Regenten the Baby Boomers acted on their own. They were very Individualistic and never created a Social Network that could support Society.

Around 2000 the stock market started to vibrate and to go down. The same happened in politics. Many voters are now moving from party to party.

Who is controlling Society?

At this moment nobody is controlling Society. Society is taking its own course.

Who is controlling the Stock Market?

At this moment nobody is controlling the Stock Market. The Stock Market is taking its own course.

Not only the Stock Exchange but also the Political System and the Weather System are taking their own course.

Is there and end to this all?

I don’t think so.

Why?

We have entered the Downfall of the Kondratiev Cycle. During this Downfall the Old Institutions are destroyed and New Institutions take over the Power. We are in an “In Between State”. In this state everything is On the Move. Everything is Moving Up & Down, Left & Right. What many people don’t see that even the Center is Moving. The State and the Stock Exchange are not able to cope with the excessive amount of Movement.

What will happen at the End of the big Shake Up?

There are two possibilities. The first one is the return to an old center.  My guess is that we will move back to the State of the Renaissance.

The second possibility is “frightening” for many people. We will jump to an unknown state predicted by many Old Civilizations called the Fifth World or the Golden Age.

The Hopis call our time the “The Fourth Age of Man”. According to them the Earth has been wiped clean 3 times already. First by Fire, next by Ice, most recently by the great Flood approximately 11,000-12,000 years ago. We are now entering the last stage of the Fourth Age called “The great day of Purification“. This stage culminates either in total Rebirth or total Annihilation.

The Degree of Violence will be determined by the Degree of Inequity caused among the peoples of the world and in the Balance of Nature. In this crisis Rich and Poor will be forced to struggle as Equals in order to Survive. The beginning of the Fifth World will be heralded by the arrival of a being known as Pahana, or the lost “White Brother“.

If we believe the Prophecy of the Hopi and many other “Spiritual Movements (Gnostics, Sufi’s)” the only way that will save us from total annihilation is the Creation of Balance. We don’t have much time left. The Great day of Purification will happen at the End of 2012. At that time the “Lost White Brother” (The Center) will return.

Is it possible to Balance the Financial System?

 Yes, I think so.

The only thing we have to do is to Unite Shareholders, Customers and Workers and give them an Equal Share in a Company. They have to Share the Power, the Profit or Loss, the Spirit and the Soul. They have to become Enthousiastic about What is Happening (Spirit).

They have to take care of Nature and the Other (Soul). If we do this we will recreate the Social Power Network of the Rich on a Different Scale (Earth) with other Participants. If we Help the Other we don’t need a Pension!

I am sure You want to put Your Savings into a Shared Enterprise. I am also sure that You will Never Regain the Money you will invest in Shares at the Stock Exchange. The Era of the Stock Exchange is Gone for Ever.

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How the Hedge Funds are Starving a 100 Million People

Friday, April 25th, 2008

The Banking Business has created the Credit-Crunch. The Banking Business has created the Great Depression. The Banking Business has created many Bubbles. The Banking Business has advised people to buy shares while they knew the shares were highly overvalued. Now the Banking Business is stimulating the Food Crisis in the World.

 Analysis being carried out by World Food Program (WFP) estimates that about 100 million people have been pushed deeper into poverty by the high food prices.

The “Silent Tsunami” will affect more people on every continent than the real Tsunami in 2004. It will destroy more livelihoods and the nutrition losses will hurt children for a lifetime.

Everybody believes that Prices Rise when there is a Shortage of Something. The highest bidder takes all.

The main cause of the World Wide Food Shortage is Western Way of Producing, Selling and Wasting Food. We are Manipulating the Market and The Consumer but we are also destroying nature by fertilizers and genetical manipulated seeds. We are also throwing away a enormouss amount of food.

The Multi-Natioals produce genetic manipulated seeds, artificial fertilizers and artificial food. They control the Transportation, the Media, The Financial streams and the Governments (The World Bank). The multi-national food companies are making record profits.
 
The profit of Monsanto has doubled. Similarly, the Mosaic Company, one of the world’s largest fertiliser companies, saw its income rise more than 12-fold. The prices of some kinds of fertiliser have more than tripled over the past year as demand has outstripped supply. As a result, plans to increase harvests in developing countries have been hit hard.

The Farmers at the beginning of the production lines are mostly poor. They will not profit from the rise of the prices of their products. This is not something new. The Poor get poorer and the Rich get richer. They are blocked to enter the Market. They are also blocked to produce their own natural fertilizers and their own natural seeds. Most of them are now unable to be self-sufficient. They have to buy food and y are unable to pay for it.

When you are very rich you can play with “the Fundamental Law of the Market“. You can buy a lot of goods, store them and create an artificial shortage. This game is called Speculation. The Multi-Nationals are creating an artificial shortage.

A very advanced Speculation Game is called Hedging.

When you are Hedging you use the Power of Money to Move the market UP to a certain point you want it to reach. If your hedge works out fine you leave the market when it Moves DOWN. At that time you let the “Bigger Fools” pay for the Downfall. At this moment the Tax-Payers are paying for the Downfall of the Speculators in the Housing Business. The Hedge Funds have already found a new Target, Hunger.

At this moment Hedge funds are Moving into the Food-business and they are making Big Money.

Commodity speculation spread long ago from standard products like oil and gold to anything edible and available for trade on the Chicago Futures Exchange. These days there are futures contracts for everything from wheat to oranges to pork bellies.

The futures market is a traditional tool for farmers to sell their harvests ahead of time. In a futures contract, quantities, prices and delivery dates are fixed, sometimes even before crops have been planted. Futures contracts allow farmers and grain wholesalers a measure of protection against adverse weather conditions and excessive price fluctuations. They can also help a farmer plan how much to plant for a given year.

But now speculators are taking advantage of this mechanism. They can buy futures contracts for wheat, for example, at a low price, betting that the price will go up. If the price of the grain rises by the agreed delivery date, they profit.

Some experts now believe these investors have taken over the market, buying futures at unprecedented levels and driving up short-term prices. Since last August, this mechanism has led to a doubling in the price of rice-including the 500,000 tons that the Philippine government plans to buy in early May to address its own shortage.

Experts are already discussing what they call a “Super Cycle,” set off by constantly growing demand in China, and by farmers unable, in the long term, to keep up with that demand as they sow their seed and harvest their crops. The planet has only a finite amount of land for farming.

Greg Warner has worked in the grain wholesaling business for more than two decades. His office sits a block away from the Chicago Futures Exchange. He’s an analyst with the firm AgResource, and he says what is happening now in the wheat market is unprecedented.

“What we normally have is a predictable group of sellers and buyers-mainly farmers and silo operators,” he says. But the landscape has changed since the influx of large index funds. Fund managers seek to maximize their profits using futures contracts, and prices, says Warner, “keep climbing up and up.”

He’s calculated that financial investors now hold the rights to two complete annual harvests of a type of grain traded in Chicago called “soft red winter wheat.”

Wagner is stunned by such developments. He sees them as evidence that capitalism is literally consuming itself.

One of the major players in this business is ABN AMRO. When somebody asked the manager of this business about ethics he answered that he was not interested in a discussion about this subject. “We are aware of the current discussions relating to agricultural commodities but we make the drills, but others have to do the drilling”.

The World Food Program is asking everybody to donate money. They need more money (775 million!) than the “real” Tsunami to solve the problems of the 100 million. The sad thing is that donating is helping the Hungry but is also helping the Rich. It helps them to sustain their Gamble.

In the end your donation will be payd to a very Rich Person who has enough money to buy an enormous amount of Food.

This also happens when Governement is “helping” the WFP. It is a very intelligent trick to move money from the Public Domain to the Private Domain. In the end You pay More and They Increase their Wealth. IT happened with the Credit Crunch. It happened with the Great Depression. It happens all the time.

Just like every Bubble the Food Bubble will also burst at a certain moment. It is not difficult to imagine when this will happen. It will happen when a very small part of the world is able to pay for the food.

The Bubble is already infecting the Economy of the Rich Countries. When a Very amount of people is able to buy Food the End State will be reached and the Prices will drop. At that moment The Hedge Funds will move into another area of (artificial) Shortage.

The poor people in the West are already unable to pay for the food. At a certain moment the Middle Class will feel the effects. When the Poor People in the Rich Countries will experience a Food Shortage they will Riot.

Just like the poor people in the Underdeveloped Countries are Rioting. When the Riots start in the Getto’s of the Big Cities the Rich will become Afraid. They will Ask for Protection of the Police or the Military. In the end they have to surround there homes with walls and create there own food supplies.

The rising prices not only affect the Poor. They also affect the Policy of the FED to stop the Credit Crunch. Higher prices stimulate Inflation and Inflation can only be stopped by an Increase of the Interest Rates. Higher Interest Rates will deepen the state of Depression.

Is this what the Investors really want?

The Ethics are not of My Concern. They are the Business of Somebody Else.

We Produce Weapons but we are not responsible for the Use of the Weapons.

We Fight a War but we are not responsible for the Killing of Innocent people.

We Advice people but we are not responsible for What we are Advicing them.

We Pollute the World but somebody else has to Clean Up.

We Use all the Resources of the Earth but somebody else has to Take Care of our Children.

In the advanced Western Civilization we just look at the Profit. Investors are playing their hedge in the Global Casino and just don’t realize that they are gambling away the daily food supply of the world’s poorest people.

In the old, “Savage”, civilizations the Decision Makers had to Evaluate their Decisions on the effect of Seven Generations. They Knew they needed Nature, their Neighbours and their Offspring to Survive.

Funny.

Every Company has turned itself into a Green Company. They want to “Save the Earth”.

Are the Poor People on this Earth not Included in their Policy?

I know Why. You Know Why. Money makes the World go Round?

My Advice:

Always Take Responsibility for Every Action.

We are all Part of an Ecology and someday the Ecology will React and You will encounter the same things Others are Experiencing.

Do You want to Live in an Environment where You are deprived of Food? I don’t think so. Nobody Wants that.

REFLECT BEFORE YOU ACT.

LINKS

About Ethics in Banking

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Why are all the Bees dying?

Tuesday, March 4th, 2008
Haagen-Dazs is warning that a creature as small as a honeybee could become a big problem for the premium ice cream maker’s business. At issue are the disappearing bee colonies in the United States, a situation that continues to mystify scientists and frighten food-makers.
 
That’s because, according to Haagen-Dazs, one-third of the U.S. food supply – including a variety of fruits, vegetables and even nuts – depends on pollination from bees.It is now estimated that nearly half of Italy’s 50 billion bee population died last year. Meanwhile, the situation in the U.S., where up to 70% of honey bees have already died, is far worse than in Italy. The worldwide bee epidemic has also hit France, Germany, Britain, Brazil, Australia, and Canada.

Bees are responsible for the pollination of fruits, nuts, vegetables; such as, carrots, cucumbers, broccoli, onions, pumpkins, squash, apples, blueberries, avocados, almonds or cherries. Many animals and insects are dependent on these products. In the end the only thing that is left for us to eat is grain and seafood.

The wheat supplies around the world are at their lowest level in thirty years and the demand for seafood is also much bigger than the amount of fish that is produced. The effect is a permanent rise of the prices. At the end only the Rich people (We) are able to buy food. The rest of the World has to find other solutions. Don’t you think this will create a lot of conflicts?

Scientists are “mystified” by what they call Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD).

 Bees use the sky and the earth’s magnetic field to navigate. They communicate this information to their mates by the famous bees’ waggle dance on the honeycomb. Researchers at Landau University in Germany designed a simple experiment. They exposed bee-hives to the radiation of DECT-stations. Of course they also used a control group that was not exposed. For two microwave-exposed hives no bees at all returned. To one hive only six returned.

I think it is strange that a simple explanation is not accepted. When bees vanish there can be only one reason. They move out and are unable to find their way back. Because their navigation system depends on “the sky and the earth magnetic field” there must be something wrong with this field.

 Honeybees are one of the most sensitive indicator species for all the environmental pollution and dangerous technologies we perpetrate.

When honeybees disappear, we too, shall follow in due time.I have written more than once about the big changes that are taking place in the Magnetic Field of the Earth. Some changes are caused by external influences (the Sun Cycle) but most of the changes are caused by ourselves. We are polluting the sea, the earth and the sky.

Not only the telecommunication-industry is producing electro-magnetic pollution. The Military (US, Russia, China) have produced very powerfull Electro-Magnetic Weapons. This network is build by the US-Army is now covering the US. It produces so called ELF (Extreem Low Frequency) waves. It is proved that these network change the Magnetic Orientation with 10 degrees. ELF networks are also capable of influencing the Emotions.

I know that the policy-makers are aware of the problems. They know already for a very long time about the hazards. They don’t know what to do because we are now about a 100% dependent on the “mobile”-infrastructure. They don’t want to admit they told “lies” to the public.

It is a well known fact that when many people are compromised they just wait and see and hope for something that will save from a downfall when everybody starts to realize we are moving into a fatal disaster and they knew it all the time (!).

Not only the politicians are not acting. The users (Civilians and Soldiers) are also watching and using their beautifull gadgets. They are addicted and don’t realize that electro-magnetic infrastructures are also killing the Immune-system and affect our Emotional States.

The Military don’t mind about this. Destructing the Enemy is their Goal.

When you read this Blog please realize that You are again informed about a new step in the Destruction of Your own Environment.

If we go on this way we will be sick (Auto-Immune Diseases), poor and hungry (Shortage of Food) in due time.

 We will be poor because the financial system is crashing because of the spectacular amount of financial speculation. Speculation in Commodities is one part of a very big picture that shows that the Financial Industry is gambling on a very large scale. Speculation is one the most important factors for the rise of all the prices in commodities.

Sometimes we have to stop something and start all-over again. I am afraid we have to stop mobile communication almost immedeatly and move back to the old way of telecommunication using cables. I am sure we will find low-intensity solutions for Mobile Communication. There is really no need to send Movies and Pictures by the mobile network.There is abundance of Glass Fiber!

We also have to stop all the large scale “experiments” with Electro Magnetic Fields that are going on in the Weapon Industry. There is no need for more advanced highly destructive weapons. 

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