Posts Tagged ‘kondratiev’

Many Reasons to Believe that the Economy will not Recover in a Short Time

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

The Unemployement and the Stock Market are rising for some time now. A new Stock Market Bubble is building up and will explode in the near future. The biggest Bubble is certainly the US Deficit Bubble.

The Stock Market Bubble and the Deficit Bubble will explode as soon as the major creditors (China, India, …) of the US will move out of the Dollar. This is happening already.

The Customers are the backbone of the Economy and the Leaders understand very well that the Economy is governed by Psychology. So Bad News is hidden en Good News is exaggerated. The Expectations of Analysts are always beaten and the downfall is falling slower than before.

The Economy is still in a terrible state and this state is getting worse every day. The unemployement is still rising and will rise for a very long time because companies are getting broke or are rationalizing everything that is possible.

They replace their employees by IT-Technology and Cheap Labor. The customers are not buying, they are saving more and more money for a rainy day or are paying back their debts.

Saving money will not stimulate the economy. It stimulates unemployment. The rising unemployement results in more foreclosures and problems with credit card debts. The Economic Downturn is just at its beginning.

Economist John Williams says that– if the unemployment rate was calculated as it was during the Great Depression the unemployment figures for July 2009 rose to 20.6%. According to an article summarizing the projections of former International Monetary Fund Chief Economist and Harvard University Economics Professor Kenneth Rogoff and University of Maryland Economics Professor Carmen Reinhart,… unemployment could rise to 22% within the next 4 years or so.”

The Scenario of the Current Downturn is highly comparable with the Scenario of the Great Depression with one exception. The current Downturn is much deeper than the other. We are approaching the Biggest Global Economic Crisis in Human History.

The current investors base their policy on positive news and ignore the bad news. They believe the economy will rise when the customer-confidence is rising or when the downfall of the economy is “slowing down” or “bottoming”. They don’t see that a slowing down of a downfall is still a downfall.

The investors, the Doves, act just like the behavioral economists predict they will act. They read the headlines, believe the Hawks and are not aware of the (Money) Illusion the Government, the Media and the Banks are creating. The Hawks know better. They buy Silver, Gold and certainly the best investment, Oil.

Nouriel Roubini has a more realistic view on the economy. In his article Ten Risks to Global Growth he analyses the risks that could block the recovery of the economy and his conclusion is highly pessimistic.

According to Roubini the major cause of the crisis is overspending. Overspending is a normal activity when the Kondratiev-Cycle is in the state of Autumn. The debts are always repayed in the next phase, Winter. In the Kondratiev Winter the economy is purged and cleansed. This phase started around 2000 and will be finished around 2013. In the Winter-State you have to stay in cash or invest is Gold and Silver.

At this moment the investors don’t know what currency they have to chose for their cash-reserves. Usually the Dollar was a Save Heaven but the current policy of the FED to expand the amount of Dollars to an almost unbelievable amount is seen as a huge risk.

The Creditors (China, India, ..) of the US are already creating an alternative currency and are secretly and slowly moving out of the Dollar. If the Trust in the Dollar has gone the US Economy will go bankrupt.

The big problem with the current Cycle is that we have moved to the Level of Earth. In the last downfall of the Kondratiev Cycle other parts of the world were decoupled. They moved in a complementary mode. The Down of one part of the Earth was compensated by an Up somewhere else.

At this moment the complementary parts are synchronized and act and react according to the same rhythm. This rhythm is related to a longer term cycle that almost nobody is aware of. This cycle with a periodicity of 250 years is called the Secular Cycle.

The current level of integration of the World Economy is very dangerous. The production-processes of the Earth are highly rationalized and integrated. When one process stops the rest of the processes also has to stop.

The very high level of rationalization causes cascades or avalanches. The fast and slow avalanches generate sudden bursts of unemployment and financial disasters. The Car Industry and the Financial Industry are good examples. At this moment the avalanches start new avalanches in completely different branches of the tree of the World Economy.

The Crisis in the Banking Industry puts a large part of the Corporate Sector under severe financial stress. Firms that in the past would have been able to roll over their loans, bonds and debts now face a liquidity crisis that may lead them into costly debt restructuring.

This will affect the Banking Industry and will also put a high strain on the Bailout capacity of the Governments who are not able to leant money or inflate money until eternity.

The only solution that is left is to Rationalize even more than the Companies were planning to do. Their only solution is to speed up the use of IT (Use the Internet) and fire the employees. It is very clear that the use of IT in Companies is still in its infancy. Many manual activities can be replaced by software. The total effect will be a worsening of the current crisis.

To stop the cascades governments are starting to Protect and Regulate their Economies. The Worldwide Cooperative Institutions are losing their grip and the Free Market Economy is on its return.

Big Companies are splitted according to the old Boundaries of Power. The expansion and integration of the EG is blocked because the member states suddenly have conflicting objectives. The Rich Countries don’t want to help the Poor Countries because the Rich Countries are getting poorer with the minute.

Not only the poor member states of the EG are getting into big trouble. The same applies to the Underdeveloped Countries. The poor Countries of the World are on their own. Everybody is in the Survival mode and The Fittest, The Rich, will as always Survive.

The world is not only hit by a Economic and a Cultural crisis. The world is also hit by a Climate Crisis. Although human activity plays an important (negative) role the Cycle of the Climate related to the activities of our Sun and the Movement of Earth in our System (the Precession Cycle) is much more important.

The current change in Climate is irreversible and will have a major effect on the world economy. Climate change and ecological misuse are the major factor why Societies collapse.

The last factor and perhaps most important factor is the Energy Consumption of the World. This consumption is not only affecting the Climate but it also facilitates a huge highly integrated Transport-System.

This System is the Backbone of the Integrated Value-Chains of the Western World. The Western World is completely dependent on the transport system for its Industrial Production and the Supply of Food.

The Transport System has a devastating effect on the poor countries in the World. To make enough money to survive they have to export their products to the Western Markets ignoring their own needs.

It is certain that the supply of oil and gas is lower than the increasing demand. The resources all over the world are going down. The total effect of this all will be a dramatic rise in price. This will affect the rich countries and in particular the US. They are already the major importer of energy in the World and when you import something you have to export something else to keep the financial balance in order.

As you already know the deficit of the US is spectacular and the only reason the US is not broke is the special role of the Dollar. If the economy recovers the demand and the prices will rise and the US Economy will slow down immediately.

What is Going to Happen?

Every scenario leads to a long term decline of the Economy, our Culture and our Civilization. The theory of the short term and long term cycles is right and it is very stupid to ignore these theories.

According to the Panarchy Model the world is too connected and this leads to an increasing rigidity in its goal to retain its state. The rigidity reduces resilience and the capacity of the system to absorb change, thus increasing the threat of abrupt change. The world is unable to cope with the changes of climate and culture that are happening now. Therefore we will see the collapse of the accumulated connections and the destruction of bound up knowledge and capital.

The highly integrated structures of the Earth (the Cooperative Institutions, the Big Companies, Governments AND the Transport System) are bound to desintegrate. The impact on the local structures is immens. Communities will have to grow their own food, manufacture and repair their own tools, create their own currency etc etc on a local level again.

Most of these structures have outsourced these functions to places far away and don’t have the skills nor the resources to do this. The fittest, the Haws, will survive but it is unclear if the Doves will accept this situation forever. A Rise of the Masses just like the French Revolution in 1789 (almost 250 years ago!) is possible.

The world is moving to a very fast transformation. The only thing that can be said when we use the Panarchy Model is that it will move back to a stable state before the expansion started and start all over again. The Wisdom of the Old Civilizations that survived earlier Collapses is very valuable. These lessons are very easy to comprehend.

Civilizations die because the humans don’t want to Move with the Cycles, don’t Cooperate and don’t Respect Mother Nature. When Civilizations Collaps even the Hawks lose Everything!

LINKS

Peter Schiff, Why the US Economy will Collaps this Year

How the Fed is cheating the citizins. About Deflation.

Why the Labormarket is Much Worse than we Think

Why the Current Crisis is comparable with the Great Depression

About Behavioral Economics, Why Hawks always Win and Doves always Lose

Nouriel Roubini, Ten Risks to Global Growth

About The Kondratiev Winter and the Generations Theory

About the End of the US Dollar

Why the US Defense Budget will Destroy the US Economy

Peter Turchin, About Secular Cycles

The Complete Text of the Book of Turchin

About the Problems the Real Estate Market is Facing

Why Rationalization is the cause of the current Crisis

About Cascades and Avalanches

Jared Diamond, Why Societies Collapse

About the World Food Crisis

Jeff Rubin, Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller

About Peak Oil, The Model that Predicts the End of Oil and Gas

About the Psychological Defense System

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

Human beings and the other organisms always want to avoid pain. There are many mechanisms called the Psychological Defenses to do this. One of them, called Repression, blocks painful memories. People Repress the thought that Prices of Houses and Shares always go Up and Down, Excessive Borrowing is Dangerous and Politicians always act on the Short-Term.

When something happens that violates the Human Believe System humans don’t see or hear what is really happening. They start to Deny the Facts and look for arguments that support their denial. Politicians are experts in using the Human Defense System.

The Economic Cycle, The Kondratiev, the Cycle of Culture, The Cycle of the Climate, and the Long Term Cycles were in favour of a very Long Boom of Western Civilization but now all the Cycles are Moving Down.

The Kondratiev will be Moving Down until 2012, the Cycle of Western Culture is Moving Down and the Cycle of the East (China, India) is Moving UP, The Cycle of the Climate is moving to an Ice Age and last but not least the very long Cycle of the Precession is around 2012 moving into the Age of the Aquirius, the Waterbearer. According to very old (and new) prophecies Human Consciousness will move to a Higher Level.

The Big Trouble is that the temptation appears strong to continue to repress rather than to confront. While people seem eager to reduce debt and spending and reset the economy, governments respond to the excesses with more excesses, especially massive borrowing and spending. The same applies to the Climate Issue. Instead of confronting people with the spectacular Irriversible Changes that take place in the World Climate Politicians and Scientists suggest that the changes can be reverted by introducing Green Technology.

The best way to implement a huge change is to ACT immediatly and spend enough time to help the people to get accustomed to the Change.

We have to take the bitter pill first.

President Bush was an expert in the psychological defence of Projection. Bush used the Negative Side of the Current Situation and projected every possible cause on an outside Enemy, the Terrorists. Bush used Fear to motivate his Voters.

The new President Obama is doing the opposite. He always talks about a Bright Shared Future.  Instead of Fear Obama uses Hope.

Hope can turn into Disappointment when the Expectations are not realized. When the Expectations Fail People get Frustrated and move into the Negative, Agressive and Impulsive Mode of the Reptile Brain. Fear takes over again.

Obama and Bush are playing with a very important part of the Human Being called the Expectation.

The Expectation is the Human Calculator. It tries to predict the Future to avoid pain. The Emotions, The Imagination. the Senses and the Consciousness are the other parts of the Five Fold Human Being. The Senses face the Facts. The Emotions are looking for Shelter and Love. The Imagination wants to Create and the Consciousness manages the Four Parts and brings them in Balance.

If the Expectation is dominating the Human Being he experiences the Fear to lose Control. The best way to solve this problem is to Face the Facts.

Obama Rescues the World Economy in London, Heales the Nato Alliance in Strasbourg, gets rid of Nuclear Weapons in Prague and Reconciles Islam and the West in Ankara. Before that time he has already solved the problems in Afghanistan (When there is Peace everybody will Work Together), saved the US Economy (Increase the Budget), the World Climate (Invest in Green Technology) and the US Banking System (Bail Out).

When you define a Clear strategy you have to be Realistic.

The world is on many levels highly unbalanced. Everybody knows that an unbalanced state will always move to a balanced state in due time. The West has to accept that the East is trying to move to the same State as the West. The West also has to accept that this is simply impossible. The Earth is incapable to provide the necessary Energy and Food.

A Realistic Strategy is to Lower the West so the East is capable to Move Up.

In the West Politicians need Votes to stay in Power. To keep the majority of the Voters happy they have to Move UP the Economy. Almost nobody of the current leaders has the courage to tell the voters that the West is at the end of its Cycle and has to move Down. The effect of the current Policy is a continuation of the Status Quo.

To move out of the Status Quo Politicians are looking for extreme certainty when they decide to change their policies. They need the Rational Backup of the Scientists to show the voters that what they are Doing is the Right Thing to Do.

Science is unable to provide this certainty. The complexity of the Economic and the Ecological System of the Earth is so big that nobody is able to comprehend what is really happening and what will be the effect of a decision on the long term.

It is really not difficult to determine what has to happen. The only thing that is difficult is to sell the message to people that are denying reality and therefore cannot face the real problems.

To keep Hope Alive Obama has to Deny the Negative Aspects of Western Society. He has to show that everybody is moving in the Same Positive Direction. To avoid a Huge Conflict he has to Compromise with the Current Economic Power Structures in Western Society. They created the Crisis and are still capable to deepen the Crisis. He simply needs their Cooperation.

The big question is how far he will go in his cooperative actions. Someday he has to make a choice and every choice has its consequences.

If he balances the Budget the Economy will Crash.

If he abandons the Dollar and chooses for a “world currency” the Dollar will crash.

If he choses to protect his own Economy other Countries will do the same and the US Export will crash.

If he leaves the East others will take over the Power in this Region. The East is still needed to provide Energy.

Russia owns a lot of Energy, wants to become a World Power and is expanding its territory again. They are blackmaling Germany with their pipelines. The European Union has lost its cohesion. The Rich and the Poor countries have different aims. The Eastern Countries need the protection of the West to keep Russia within its boundaries. The Western Countries are not able to pay for the Eastern Counties. Almost all the members of the current EG are against the entrance of Turkey. Turkey will destroy the fragile balance in Europe. The US needs Turkey as an ally to keep a balance in the Moslim World.

China and India want to expand their economy. They have creaed a coalition (BRIG) with Russia, Latin-American Countries and African Countries (South-Africa!). In terms of population they represent the Majority of the World. Pakistan is still the biggest enemy of India. Some day there will be huge nuclear conflict and the US has to make a choice. If the US suppports India Pakistan as a state will be destroyed and the extreme muslims will take over the Power in the East. They will become a huge threat for the Eastern Borders of Russia.

It looks like the US has no choice to make friends and to stay friends with the Political Leaders that are still acting in the big Power-Plays of the World. All the Big Players are playing their own Game. They change their relationships without any problem when their own targest are violated.

If the new President keeps on playing the Game of Compromise he will lose his Voters soon and the Competitors, the Republicans, will be able to go on with their Strategy. They just wait and see to take over the Power.

William K. Black, the former Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention ,shows that Obama is helping the Financial Elite of the US to get out of Trouble. According to William Black they have committed Fraude at a scale nobody has seen before.

The US Government is creating a Huge Cover Up to avoid the End of Hope and the Beginning of a Revolution that could lead to extreme Violence by the People that are the real Victims, the US Citizins.

When you watch this video below you will experience a State of Anger and old memories about the way the Elites cover their asses will come back. You will be disappointed about the way Obama is handling the situation. If you don’t want to wake Up out of a the State of Repression I advice you not to watch or to Deny what William Black is trying to explain.

You could also Erase your Memory.

LINKS

About the Psychological Defenses System

About the New US Foreign Policy

How the Financial Elite Engineered the Great Depression

About Confrontations and Conflicts

About Projection and Introspection

How to define a Clear Strategy

About Very Long Term Cycles

Thursday, November 27th, 2008

Kondratiev did not look at very long term waves that span many generations. He also did not realize that the Kondratiev-Wave contains a Fractal pattern, the fractal of the Seasons.

A fractal-pattern repeats itself on many levels with different periodicity. If you understand the fractal pattern, the levels and the frequencies of the Harmonic Universe, it becomes very easy to predict the short and long term future. According to Kondratiev the Depression will end around 2012.

The harmonic levels interfere, creating resonances or overtones. The self-referencing harmonic structure of the Universe can be seen in Nature, Music (the Music of the Spheres) and Colours (The Seven Rays).

One of the most important cycles for this moment is not the Kondratiev but the Precession. It is a very long time cycle with a periodicity of about 25.000 years.

The Cycle played a very important role in Astrology. The precession predicts a very important transformation around 2012. This transformation coincides with the start of the Spring Phase in the Kondratiev Cycle.

Around 2012 the Very Long Term Precession Cycle synchronizes or conjuncts with the “long term” Kondratiev Cycle. The Cycles are “added up”. Around 2012 we will experience a Giant Jump into the State of the Imagination and Creation.

Another very Long Term Cycle is the Cycle of Culture. This Cycle has a periodicity of 1250 years. Strangely enough this cycle also moves into the Spring-State around 2012.

The coming Spring-state in 2012 will start with an Innovation the World has never seen before.

The states of the cycles, the Seasons, are related to “Themes” or “Meta Narratives” (Myths). The old Magi, the Astrologers, used these themes to explain what would happen to the layman.

They projected the Story of the Precession on the Movement of the Stars and the Constellations. The Story of the Precession, the Zodiac, can be found in many myths in many cultures. If you understand the Myths of the Zodiac you know what will happen on the very long term and why it is happening.

The same Meta-Stories, written in the language and the metaphors of the Middle Ages, were later projected in the Cathedrals of the Masons. If you walk the labyrinth you will be guided through all the stages.

The meta-stories always appear in literature, art and in our time in Movies and Games. The Theme of the current Season is easily identified when you understand the Meta-Patterns.

Michael Bahktin found the meta-patterns (Chronotopes) of the Magi in literature and Joseph Campbell found the same Meta-Narratives when he researched ancient Myths.

He called the meta-patterns the Hero with a Thousand Faces. What is going to happen in the Short Term is visible in your Dreams. Jung has spent all his life to find the pattern behind dreams (The Archetypes). The Archetypes can be easily mapped to the meta-patterns of the Hero, the Chronotope and the Zodiac.

When you reflect about your dreams, the movies you like or are afraid of, the books you read, the paintings you paint, the poems you write and even about the “slips of the tongue” you know what is going to happen in the short term. Your Unconsciousness knows everything and the only thing to do is find the key to understand what it is telling you.

The theme of the Quest for the Grail, the Infinite Resource, is the theme of our Time. This theme is not a coincidence. Coincidences (signs and signifiers) are also not happening for nothing. They are trying to tell us something. The Western Mind has lost its focus on Signs, Dreams and Coincidences. They are funny or interesting stuff to talk about. I advice you to take them seriously because the Winter of Kondratiev in combination with all the other conjunctions will finally force you to accept a World behind the World you are Seeing.

The World behind the World is already known by the Physicist. They understand that the World is a Self-Reference, a Fractal. They also know that Linear Time is an Illusion and that there are many Universes. These Universes are now highly mixing with our own Material Universe.

This happens when major waves conjunct. Suddenly people start to communicate with Ghosts, talk with Trees, are aware of Extra Terrestrials and have strange feelings about being in different times in history at the same place. Believe me You are not getting Crazy! You are moving like every Soul on Earth into the Great Conjunction.

The Cycle of Culture repeats itself just like the Kondratiev. We are not only going to repeat the Great Depression (Kondratiev) and the Phase of Aquarius (Precession). We are also repeating the Dark Middle Ages (2008-1250=758). Don’t you think our Time has a lot in common with this phase in Western History? It is not difficult to detect the new Witch-hunters (the Inquisition), the new Crusades (Iraq, Afghanistan), the new Plague (Aids) and the new global warming (The Medieval Warmth Period).

About the Spiral of Time

About the Kondratiev

About Joseph Campbell

About Bahktin

About the Middle Ages

About the Renaissance

About the Industrial Revolution

How to get Very Rich during a Depression

Thursday, November 27th, 2008

The Kondratiev Wave predicts the long term behavior of the Economy. If you look at the Kondratiev Wave, the next stage after the Depression (Winter) is called Spring. Spring is the Time of the Seeds (new Ideas). They where harvested in Autumn. During the time of the Winter the seeds are dormant.

When the Harvest was rich, Winter is a time of Contemplation and Rest. Nature hibernates. Plants, Trees and many Animals sleep and are in the state of the Unconsciousness. When the Harvest was poor, Winter is a time of big trouble.

There will be shortages of Food and Fuel. When the Harvest was poor Winter is a time of Social Unrest and even Social Conflict. During the Kondratiev Winter Big Wars are fought and the Dark Side of the Unconscioussness shows itself in the extreme rise of Psychological Problems (Stress, Addictions, Paranoid) and Dark Religious Movements.

During Winter Shares, Paper money and other Imaginary forms of Wealth are worthless. When you want to buy something you have to deliver real value (Cash, Gold, Silver).

It is very clear that You can Make Big Money during a cold winter when you have gathered a huge pile of primary commodities (“raw materials”). During Winter raw materials are exchanged for other raw materials. When you don’t have access to these materials the only thing that is left for you is Charity.

When you are the owner of raw materials and you are making a lot of money you are Making Use of the Situation. During a cold winter you have to give to the poor and the sick. To make it very clear Making Big Money during a Depression is a Crime.

When you are Rich you can accumulate Social Value by giving away your Material Wealth to Others. During a Depression Material Wealth has to be transformed into Social Wealth to prevent a Social Conflict. This investment will pay back with a lot of social interest during Spring and Summer.

Unconditional Giving, Charity,  is a very old fashioned concept. At this moment we “give” a loan and we “ask”  interest but “giving and asking” are really “demanding”. We want to make sure that what we give will be returned in the same state. More Money for Money, an Two Eyes for an One Eye.

When we don’t want to deepen the down path of the Depression we have to leave behind the Behavior of the Expansion phase of the Cycle, Summer. When the Economy expands it is “easy” to accumulate Wealth. Loans and interest are helpful to bridge a temporary dip in the flow of cash. Summer is a time of fast moving Ups and Downs in the Economy (Recessions).

It is not strange that we are copying the behavior of the Summer. Long Term Cycles just like very fast moving Cycles are not noticed by the Human. They are generational. The pattern repeats every 50 to 60 year so the people that must be Aware of the current situation are Old. They are the grandmothers and the grandfathers, the older people (>75).

Moving through a Depression needs Wisdom and a Long Term View. A Depression is the time to Listen to the Older Generation. Hopefully they have Learned from their Mistakes at that time.

LINK

About the Kondratiev

Why a Depression Takes Thirteen Years

Wednesday, November 26th, 2008

The start and the end of the current depression was predicted a very long time (1922) ago by Nikolai Kondratiev. The Kondratiev Cycle is an economic cycle which lasts between 50 to 60 years.

Kondratiev predicted that the current Depression will start in 2000 and end around 13 years later. Kondratiev used the Seasons to name the phases of his Cycle. We are now in the phase of the Kondratiev Winter.

Spring is marked by economic expansion. Savings are at fairly high levels, and interest rates are low. Stocks and real estate are the most successful investments.

Summer is marked by high inflation, high interest rates and by volatility. Commodities, gold, and real estate do well during the summer.

Autumn is the happiest phase of the Cycle. This phase started about 1982 and ended around 2000. During Autumn paper financial investments like stocks and bonds always do best. It is characterized by speculative bubbles or manias in stocks, bonds, real estate, and collectibles. On the other hand, gold, silver, and commodities collapse. Unfortunately, the Autumn is also marked by a serious decrease in savings, and a dangerous and reckless increase in debt. The imbalances build up to the point where they cannot continue. That’s where we are now.

When Winter arrives the insane excesses of the Autumn are purged and cleansed. The ultimate result is a deflationary recession or depression. Debt is repudiated. There is usually a banking crisis. Bankruptcies and foreclosures increase, as does social discontent. During the Kondratiev Winter, gold and cash are the best investments.

It is very strange that almost nobody believes the Kondratiev Cycle is a tool to predict the Economy. If people would have believed the Cycle it would be very simple to move through the Depression. In the UP-state you have to save money to sustain the DOWN-state. When you don’t do this the DOWN-state will bring you in to big trouble. At this moment the World has used almost all his resources. We have saved almost nothing to move through the deep recession.

In 1931 the US Department of Commerce assigned Edward Dewey the task of discovering the cause and underlying dynamics of the Great Depression. The US Government created a special institute the Foundation for the Study of Economic Cycles. The US Government never took the research of the Institute for granted or used it for another purpose (Financial Warfare?).

The most interesting observation of Dewey is that Cycles restore themselves all the time and Cycles are influenced by other Cycles. They are entrained. We are not talking about a single isolated Economic cycle. The Universe is an Integrated Harmonic System. The Universe is a Wave that generates Waves that generates Waves. At this moment Physicists believe this is the case (String Theory, Plasma Theory).

To me it is unbelievable that Economists like Milton Friedman called the ongoing statistical research of Dewey and many related Cycle theorists “not scientific“. To me it is also unbelievable that almost nobody takes even a look at the enormous amount of data that is gathered. I believe ignoring the scientific facts of the Cycles is not only stupid but also a crime. It is a crime because by constantly ignoring and pushing the cycles the whole harmonic system (including your Body, the Weather, Society, Earth) gets out of balance.

The Cycle of Kondratiev is a “long-term” cycle but there are cycles with a much longer periodicity (The Precession). The “short-term” cycles of the Kondratiev Ride The Wave of the Very long term cycles. If a very long term cycle moves down the Kondratiev also moves down much deeper and much faster.

This is happening and we are totally not prepared to cope with the new phases of the “dominant” long term cycles. The Harmonic System is preparing to Jump to a new State of Balance. This State has been given many names like Time Wave Zero (Terrence McKenna) and Point Omega (Teilhard de Chardin).

In the old age the Scientists who studied the cycles were called Astrologers. They have gathered a lot of data about the Cycles. Just like Milton Friedman we think Astrology is not scientific but many people just ignore that we are now equipped with much better tools and theories to explain what is happening. The old Astrologers did a spectacular job without computers, telescopes and a highly developed mathematics.

If you read the Predictions of the Old Astrologers like The Maya and The Magi you have to understand that they wrote in the language and the metaphors of their time but their message is the same message McKenna and other Cycle-Theorist want to tell.

LINKS

About the Kondratiev Wave

The Case for Cycles, R.Dewey

About the Cycle of the Climate

About the Cycle of History

About  the Cycle of the Seasons

About the Very Long Cycle Theory of Terrence McKenna

About the Transformation Phase of the Cycle

About Spirit and Soul

Thursday, November 20th, 2008

Economic Cycles move Up and Down. We are now in a Down-state, a Recession. To stimulate consumers the Central Banks lower the interest and are pumping a tremendous amount of money into the economy.

Pumping money generates inflation and when inflation happens prices start to rise again. What the economist wants to avoid is deflation.

When prices rise people will buy goods and invest money. When the prices go up you can make a profit. When prices rise you have to buy the goods on the short term because they will be much more expensive in the future. When consumers believe the economy will contract they will start to save money to cope with the problems they believe they will encounter in the future. They will also postpone the buying of (luxury) goods. When they postpone producers will lower their prices and when prices are lowered other prices will be lowered. This is called Deflation and Economists are terribly afraid Deflation will happen.

A state of contraction is just like a state of expansion highly related to Expectations and Expectations are a Self-Fulfilling Prophesy.  If the self-fulfilling prophesy of a down-fall is not broken the economy will shrink until eternity. To motivate consumers to believe in an Expanding Economy Economists tell scientific fairy-tales hoping people will start to believe things are going the right way again.

Social scientists know for a long time that the majority of the people are not rational at all. Humans act on impulse and explain their behavior later. Humans believe others who believe others who believe others. Most of the things that are happening in the Economy are very complex and we need a simple explanation of a trusted expert. At this moment there is one thing everybody believes. Things are going in the wrong direction and One Thing is for Sure.

Bad news travel very fast.

The current state of technology has speeded up the transport of bad news to almost the speed of light. The contraction of the current economy moves much faster than the comparable contraction during the Great Depression.

The economy is controlled by two variables, Production and Consumption.

In a balanced economy the two variables are voided. The consumer destroys (consumes, eats) the products of the producer. The destruction of the product starts a new production-cycle. When the production is not voided producers have to create an inventory and take stock or speed up production. Producers don’t like to take stock. Stock costs a lot of Money.

Producers are just like Consumers highly controlled by their Expectation of the Future. The big difference between the two is the reaction-time. Consumers are able to Act on Impulse. It takes a lot of time and coordination to produce. Producers have to control their impulsive emotions but to sell their products they have to stimulate the impulses of their customers.

In the current economy the time between production and destruction is extremely shortened.  To keep the customer satisfied new versions of products are produced almost on-demand (on impulse). To organize a demand-driven production-line the producer needs highly advanced logistic systems. One of the most important concepts of logistics is to optimize the Inventory. Inventory costs money and space. To produce a product the chains of suppliers are heavily integrated.

Nobody is taking stock and one disturbance in the production chain causes a disturbance in the complete chain. When the impulses of the consumers are suddenly stopped a complete chain slows down and production has to stop.

When the Banks are not able to finance a slowdown of the supply-chain the production has to stop even faster. Again the effect of bad news has a huge and fast impact on every producer in the world. At this moment all the interconnected wordwide supply-chains are collapsing

We are living in a time where negative impacts propagate with the Speed of Light. The political institutions are unable to react to the speed of change that is now changing the world in an instant.

People remember negative impacts much better than positive impacts. The expectation of the Human is constructed to avoid big trouble. The constant sequence of bad news lowers the trust in almost everything that was trusted before.

At this moment Advisors, Bankers, Politicians, the Stock exchange, the Banking System, the Political system, the Medical System, Pension Funds, Insurers, the World Economy, the Climate and much more are not Trusted anymore. Everything is interpreted out of a negative perspective. Not only the economy is contracting but also the trust in the now and the future is contracting. Not only the Economy is in a Depression, many people are Depressed.

Production and Consumption are two important variables but there are really five variables at stake.

The cycle of Expansion and Contraction is balanced by two other variable called Spirit and Soul. Soul is related to the Human Emotions. Spirit is related to Human Creativity. The Four variables move around a Center and this Center is moving around other Centers.

Spirit is the Creator of New Ideas. Ideas want to move Down. They want to be realized on Earth. It is very difficult to determine these ideas because Old Ideas want to be Replicated all the time. Old Ideas have to be destroyed to make place for the New ones. The only way to do this is to enforce Stress on the old replication-system. It is very clear that this is happening at this moment. The old solutions don’t work anymore.

Soul contains the Human Potential and this potential is basically unlimited. When the Soul is Stressed it Explodes and new Opportunities become visible. There are two types of Stress. The Stress to create something New, the Stress of the Artist who is desperately trying to Express something that is there but cannot be Grasped. The other type of Stress is caused by the constant pressure of something that is forcing the Human to do what he really don’t wants to do or is not capable of doing. Let us call this type of stress, Negative stress.

Soul and Spirit are connected to the Destructor and the Controller.

When the Negative Stressed Emotions connect to The Destroyer of the Senses the Human becomes Violent. Sadly enough the Destructive force of a World Wide War will certainly generate an Up-state of the Economy.

When the Negative Stressed Emotions connect to the Expectations of the Controller it will generate Fear. Fear is the Destructor of the Senses. It narrows the view of the Human and produces the simple insight of the Common Enemy. They (not we) are the cause of all evil. A long time ago the Jews were the scapegoat. Recently Islamic Terrorists were the most important enemy. At this moment the “Greedy Bankers”, the Capitalists are the cause of the big economic crisis. If we don’t watch out we are moving into a new Struggle of the Classes.

When people are Afraid they simply stop moving. They wait and see and start to look for protection. In this case Big Brother is always there to help them. Extreme fear generates the need for all kinds of weapons to prevent war and to stop or even destroy the Agressive Humans. The Stressed Emotions create Enemies, Protectors, Weapons and finally the perfect reason to Fight a War or start a Revolution. If we don’t watch out a Huge Violent Conflict is unavoidable.

When the Emotions connect to Spirit, Spirit will generate an Insight. When this Insight has appeared Spirit will Transform the Soul and the Human will be lifted to another Center, a new Frame of Reference, a new View on the outside World. In this case Spirit gives the Expectation Hope, a view on a Bright and Exciting Future. The Creative Spirit is the Powerful Force behind Enthusiasm and Motivation.

We are living in an Illusion. Money is an illusion, the Economy is an Illusion, The Banking System is an Illusion, and the Contraction of the Economy is an Illusion. If we keep on believing this Illusion, the Economy, will slowdown, until it finally stops. At that time we have to cooperate to survive.

We See what we want to see and when we See a Contraction, the Contraction will happen. Our Expectation creates the world it wants to see and when the Expectation is without Hope, the outside world becomes Hopeless.

We, the Humans, are perfectly capable to create a completely balanced economy if we listen to the other, exchange ideas, cooperate and start to implement the ideas.  We will always make mistakes but mistakes generate new ideas and the cycle of Innovation will start again.

LINKS

About the Struggle of the Classes

How to create Enemies

About Suffering

About Unlimited Energy

Why Free Will is an Illusion

How to Shape your Own Future

About Mind Control

About the Emotions

About the Observer

About Synchronicity

About Time

About Paranoids

About Creativity

About the Big Brother State

About the Placebo Effect

About Honesty

About the Soul

About the End of the Stock Market

Monday, October 6th, 2008

The Amsterdam Stock Exchange was the first stock exchange to introduce continuous trade in the early 17th century. The Dutch pioneered short selling and every other “modern” instrument. Until the sixties Government and the Big Companies were controlled by about 200 Rich Dutch Families (including the Royal Family). They controlled Society and took care of Stability.

In the 17th century the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was introduced by the Dutch Government. The VOC was the first multinational in the world and the first company to issue stock. It was the first mega corporation possessing quasi-governmental powers, including the ability to wage war, negotiate treaties, coin money, and establish colonies.

In the 17th century about 200 families, the so called Regenten, were in control of the Netherlands. The families promoted their members in every influential position available.

The Democracy of the Netherlands was in reality an Oligarchy. The “oligarchic way” of decision making, the Dutch Polder Model, is still the most important way to reach consensus in the Netherlands. Everything happens “behind closed doors”.

Until 1917 only the Rich people were allowed to Vote. The Rich Voted with their Money. In the beginning of the 20th century (1917) the universal suffrage for male citizens was introduced in the Netherlands. Two years later (1919) the female part of the country followed.

The Rich not only voted with their money they were also the most important owners of the Stocks. With the power of their stock and their money they helped their families to acquire important positions in the State and the Companies.

Until the Sixties the Rich maintained a very powerful social network based on reciprocity in the Netherlands. This network was not a local network. It was an international network. The influential Dutch Families were connected to comparable networks all over the world.

Around the Seventies the power of the Rich Families went down. They lost their influence in Parliament and in the Companies. The Flower Power Generation took over the Power at every Level of Society. After some time most of them lost their Ideals of Peace and Harmony.

They started to buy houses and shares and were helped by the Rising of the Economic Kondratiev Cycle. In contrary to the Regenten the Baby Boomers acted on their own. They were very Individualistic and never created a Social Network that could support Society.

Around 2000 the stock market started to vibrate and to go down. The same happened in politics. Many voters are now moving from party to party.

Who is controlling Society?

At this moment nobody is controlling Society. Society is taking its own course.

Who is controlling the Stock Market?

At this moment nobody is controlling the Stock Market. The Stock Market is taking its own course.

Not only the Stock Exchange but also the Political System and the Weather System are taking their own course.

Is there and end to this all?

I don’t think so.

Why?

We have entered the Downfall of the Kondratiev Cycle. During this Downfall the Old Institutions are destroyed and New Institutions take over the Power. We are in an “In Between State”. In this state everything is On the Move. Everything is Moving Up & Down, Left & Right. What many people don’t see that even the Center is Moving. The State and the Stock Exchange are not able to cope with the excessive amount of Movement.

What will happen at the End of the big Shake Up?

There are two possibilities. The first one is the return to an old center.  My guess is that we will move back to the State of the Renaissance.

The second possibility is “frightening” for many people. We will jump to an unknown state predicted by many Old Civilizations called the Fifth World or the Golden Age.

The Hopis call our time the “The Fourth Age of Man”. According to them the Earth has been wiped clean 3 times already. First by Fire, next by Ice, most recently by the great Flood approximately 11,000-12,000 years ago. We are now entering the last stage of the Fourth Age called “The great day of Purification“. This stage culminates either in total Rebirth or total Annihilation.

The Degree of Violence will be determined by the Degree of Inequity caused among the peoples of the world and in the Balance of Nature. In this crisis Rich and Poor will be forced to struggle as Equals in order to Survive. The beginning of the Fifth World will be heralded by the arrival of a being known as Pahana, or the lost “White Brother“.

If we believe the Prophecy of the Hopi and many other “Spiritual Movements (Gnostics, Sufi’s)” the only way that will save us from total annihilation is the Creation of Balance. We don’t have much time left. The Great day of Purification will happen at the End of 2012. At that time the “Lost White Brother” (The Center) will return.

Is it possible to Balance the Financial System?

 Yes, I think so.

The only thing we have to do is to Unite Shareholders, Customers and Workers and give them an Equal Share in a Company. They have to Share the Power, the Profit or Loss, the Spirit and the Soul. They have to become Enthousiastic about What is Happening (Spirit).

They have to take care of Nature and the Other (Soul). If we do this we will recreate the Social Power Network of the Rich on a Different Scale (Earth) with other Participants. If we Help the Other we don’t need a Pension!

I am sure You want to put Your Savings into a Shared Enterprise. I am also sure that You will Never Regain the Money you will invest in Shares at the Stock Exchange. The Era of the Stock Exchange is Gone for Ever.

A Very Strange Way to Explain the Current Crisis

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

I wrote and thought a lot about Time and Time Travel. My investigations made it clear to me that Time Travel must be possible and is also happening. Most people are not aware of the Cyclic Patterns of Time.

They think Time is a Line extending into Infinity. The Cyclic Patterns are moving With the Clock and Counter the Clock. At this moment The Cycles are Reversing in Time. This explains the current Crisis.

The conclusion of my research in Time was that we are traveling through a Vibrating Static Structure, A Fluent Crystal, which contains a huge amount of possible paths. We have Free Choice to travel the many Paths but the Amount of Possible Choices is fixed.

When we are traveling and return at the same point we started our traveling, we have gone through a Cycle.

When you go to work in the morning and return at home in the evening and repeat this sequence day after day you are moving through a very simple cycle. When you Repeat the Same Mistakes all the Time you are moving through a Cycle. When you are Born and Die you are moving through a Cycle called Life.

Cycles can be very complex. They are sometimes so complex that you are not aware you are repeating the same pattern all the time. You are experiencing the Feeling of Freedom of Choice because you are not Observing Your Path.

When you are Capable of Observing Your Path the Cyclic Behavior Ends. You Watch the Cycle but you are not In the Cycle. You are freed from the Cycle when you don’t make a Choice at all. This is what the Chinese Masters call the Tao.

Cycles basically move in two directions. They move With the Clock and Counter the Clock. Our Clocks move With the Clock so we assume that Time is moving With the Clock. When we move Counter the Clock we are moving Back in Time.

Cycles With the Clock, are Positive, Generating, Cycles.

Cycles Counter the Clock , are Negative, Destructive, Cycles.

The direction of a rotation is called Spin.

If we combine two Cycles that are moving With AND Counter the Clock an interesting structure appears. This Structure is called the Moebius Ring and is often used to represent the Symbol of Infinity, the Lemniscate or Ourobouros (A Snake).

The Moebius Ring is a very interesting structure because it does not have an Above and an Under. When you are traveling the Boundary you are always traveling the Same Surface. The Moebius Ring is easily constructed by connecting the two ends of a strip of twisted paper.

To Change the Direction of a Cycle you have to introduce a Twist.

To Travel Time you to have to Twist Time.

The Twist is an interesting concept. One of the Questions you could ask is if You would experience a Twist when it happened. The answer is Yes and No. Yes, when the Twist is an Up or Down Peak (An Event). No, when the Twist is a smooth path.

The most interesting Peak Experience in Life is Death. At that time the Cycle of Life is closed and another Cycle with a different Spin starts. Many cultures believe the Cycle of Death is real. In Western Society many people believe the Cycle of Death is non existent. Scientists are spending a lot of time to prove that the moment of Death is the End of Everything.

History is moving through Cycles. At some point in time many people feel History is Repeating Itself. Most of the time people believe the Cycles are moving into a certain direction. They are moving UP and DOWN. When you look at the Economic Cycles the data show that the Economic Cycles are Moving UP.

In reality the UP Cycle behind the Economic Cycle is another Cycle that is in its UP-state. Behind this Cycle is another (Long-Term) Cycle and another Cycle and …but somewhere the Cycle of Cycles (A Spiral) is Closed in Itself (A Spiraling Spiral). Just like the Moebius Ring there is no Above and Under. We are (Time-)traveling a Boundary that is closed in itself.

I don’t think many people will disagree with the concept of Cycles in History. The Theory of Economic Cycles has proven itself without any Doubt.

I don’t think many people understand that Cycles are moving in two directions. They believe the Cycles are moving With the Clock. If you believe Cycles move With the Clock it is easy to see that the Seasons are a beautiful Metaphor to understand Cyclic Behavior.

But what will happen when the Cycles of History move Counter the Clock???

If we would move through time Counter the Clock History would repeat itself just like History is Repeating Itself when we move With the Clock but the Stages of the Cycle (The Seasons) would show themselves in a Different Order.

If the Cycle With the Clock is an UP Cycle, the Cycle Counter the Clock would be a Down Cycle.

If you read the references in this Blog you will see that Western Culture is (or was) moving Counter The Clock, a CYCLE of DESTRUCTION.

The Cycle of Destruction (Capitalism, Materialism) was seen as a positive Cycle by many People but now they are becoming Aware of Reality. Western Culture is destructing Nature. It is not only destructing Nature but it is also destructing Human Culture.

At a certain point in time the Cycle HAS TO REVERSE. This TWIST is a Peak Experience, a Major Crisis. I hope You now See what is really Happening. We are Reversing the Cycle and the new Cycle is a GENERATING CYCLE. We are really Moving UP into a new state of Consciousnesa. This new state is not the state people who love materialism and capitalism (and War and Destruction and Greed and Control and Desire and …) will like.

LINKS

About The Twist in History

 About the Twist in Literature

About Cyclic Behavior in History

About Cyclic Behavior in History

Using the Seasons to Understand Cycles