Posts Tagged ‘Western World’

About Old Fashioned Thinking

Monday, December 21st, 2009

 

Success Tips for First-Time Entrepreneurs

 

Being a first-time entrepreneur can be challenging and nerve-wracking but also very exciting and rewarding. There is no end to the many financial, legal, staffing, marketing, and customer issues that will come up as you launch your business. A‎nd, unfortunately, there is a lot of conflicting advice out there for the aspiring entrepreneur. But here are 15 core tips to help you begin navigating the startup landscape:

1‎. First-time entrepreneurs should start a business they are passionate and knowledgeable about

Startups can be quite a grind, so pick something that excites and motivates you. Avoid businesses or industries that you don’t already know a good deal about, as the steep learning curve may hamper your success. Check out the best images of harold matzner.

2. Pick a business idea that has a big market opportunity

Make sure to carefully reseach if there’s a big market for your product or service. Investors will typically only invest in your company if they see a large market opportunity and that the company has the potential to grow into something significant.

3. Raise as much startup funding as you can

It’s almost always harder and takes longer to raise startup financing than you think. You must ensure you have a cushion for all the product development and marketing expenses you will incur. In an ideal world, you will have sufficient capital for your operations to break even. Don’t worry about diluting your percentage ownership in the company. Developing a great product takes time and money.

Check out these two articles on raising financing from invest‎ors: 28 Mistakes Entrepreneurs Make When Pitching to Investors and 20 Things Entrepreneurs Should Know About Angel Investors.

4. Constantly monitor your finances

You must keep on top of all of your expenses, income and balance sheet. Many startups have failed because the entrepreneur wasn’t able to adjust spending to avoid running out of cash. Maintain a low overhead. Be frugal with expenses and avoid unnecessary costs. Learn to live on a shoestring budget until meaningful revenues start to flow in.

5. Research the competitionMake sure you are thoroughly researching competitive products or services in the marketplace, and keep on top of new developments and enhancements from your competitors. ‎One way to do this is to set up a Google alert to notify you when any new information about your competitors shows up online.

6. Ask for advice from other entrepreneurs

Advice from other entrepreneurs and business professionals (such as lawyers and accountants) can prove to be invaluable. Consider putting together an advisory board, and don’t be afraid to motivate members by giving them stock options in your company. Read industry newsletters and startup publications like AllBusiness.com and Entrepreneur.com. Find mentors who can give you advice on hiring, product development, marketing and fundraising‎.

7. Develop a great elevator pitch

You should have a succinct and compelling story about what your startup does and what problem it solves. Have this ready for potential customers and investors (although you will need to tailor it to the specific audience)‎. Keep it to 30 seconds or less. Articulate your mission and goals, and why your product or service is compelling and unique. And if an investor is interested, be prepared to follow up with an executive summary about the company or a 12-15 slide PowerPoint “deck” that dives into more detail about the company and the market opportunity.

 

Many Reasons to Believe that the Economy will not Recover in a Short Time

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

The Unemployement and the Stock Market are rising for some time now. A new Stock Market Bubble is building up and will explode in the near future. The biggest Bubble is certainly the US Deficit Bubble.

The Stock Market Bubble and the Deficit Bubble will explode as soon as the major creditors (China, India, …) of the US will move out of the Dollar. This is happening already.

The Customers are the backbone of the Economy and the Leaders understand very well that the Economy is governed by Psychology. So Bad News is hidden en Good News is exaggerated. The Expectations of Analysts are always beaten and the downfall is falling slower than before.

The Economy is still in a terrible state and this state is getting worse every day. The unemployement is still rising and will rise for a very long time because companies are getting broke or are rationalizing everything that is possible.

They replace their employees by IT-Technology and Cheap Labor. The customers are not buying, they are saving more and more money for a rainy day or are paying back their debts.

Saving money will not stimulate the economy. It stimulates unemployment. The rising unemployement results in more foreclosures and problems with credit card debts. The Economic Downturn is just at its beginning.

Economist John Williams says that– if the unemployment rate was calculated as it was during the Great Depression the unemployment figures for July 2009 rose to 20.6%. According to an article summarizing the projections of former International Monetary Fund Chief Economist and Harvard University Economics Professor Kenneth Rogoff and University of Maryland Economics Professor Carmen Reinhart,… unemployment could rise to 22% within the next 4 years or so.”

The Scenario of the Current Downturn is highly comparable with the Scenario of the Great Depression with one exception. The current Downturn is much deeper than the other. We are approaching the Biggest Global Economic Crisis in Human History.

The current investors base their policy on positive news and ignore the bad news. They believe the economy will rise when the customer-confidence is rising or when the downfall of the economy is “slowing down” or “bottoming”. They don’t see that a slowing down of a downfall is still a downfall.

The investors, the Doves, act just like the behavioral economists predict they will act. They read the headlines, believe the Hawks and are not aware of the (Money) Illusion the Government, the Media and the Banks are creating. The Hawks know better. They buy Silver, Gold and certainly the best investment, Oil.

Nouriel Roubini has a more realistic view on the economy. In his article Ten Risks to Global Growth he analyses the risks that could block the recovery of the economy and his conclusion is highly pessimistic.

According to Roubini the major cause of the crisis is overspending. Overspending is a normal activity when the Kondratiev-Cycle is in the state of Autumn. The debts are always repayed in the next phase, Winter. In the Kondratiev Winter the economy is purged and cleansed. This phase started around 2000 and will be finished around 2013. In the Winter-State you have to stay in cash or invest is Gold and Silver.

At this moment the investors don’t know what currency they have to chose for their cash-reserves. Usually the Dollar was a Save Heaven but the current policy of the FED to expand the amount of Dollars to an almost unbelievable amount is seen as a huge risk.

The Creditors (China, India, ..) of the US are already creating an alternative currency and are secretly and slowly moving out of the Dollar. If the Trust in the Dollar has gone the US Economy will go bankrupt.

The big problem with the current Cycle is that we have moved to the Level of Earth. In the last downfall of the Kondratiev Cycle other parts of the world were decoupled. They moved in a complementary mode. The Down of one part of the Earth was compensated by an Up somewhere else.

At this moment the complementary parts are synchronized and act and react according to the same rhythm. This rhythm is related to a longer term cycle that almost nobody is aware of. This cycle with a periodicity of 250 years is called the Secular Cycle.

The current level of integration of the World Economy is very dangerous. The production-processes of the Earth are highly rationalized and integrated. When one process stops the rest of the processes also has to stop.

The very high level of rationalization causes cascades or avalanches. The fast and slow avalanches generate sudden bursts of unemployment and financial disasters. The Car Industry and the Financial Industry are good examples. At this moment the avalanches start new avalanches in completely different branches of the tree of the World Economy.

The Crisis in the Banking Industry puts a large part of the Corporate Sector under severe financial stress. Firms that in the past would have been able to roll over their loans, bonds and debts now face a liquidity crisis that may lead them into costly debt restructuring.

This will affect the Banking Industry and will also put a high strain on the Bailout capacity of the Governments who are not able to leant money or inflate money until eternity.

The only solution that is left is to Rationalize even more than the Companies were planning to do. Their only solution is to speed up the use of IT (Use the Internet) and fire the employees. It is very clear that the use of IT in Companies is still in its infancy. Many manual activities can be replaced by software. The total effect will be a worsening of the current crisis.

To stop the cascades governments are starting to Protect and Regulate their Economies. The Worldwide Cooperative Institutions are losing their grip and the Free Market Economy is on its return.

Big Companies are splitted according to the old Boundaries of Power. The expansion and integration of the EG is blocked because the member states suddenly have conflicting objectives. The Rich Countries don’t want to help the Poor Countries because the Rich Countries are getting poorer with the minute.

Not only the poor member states of the EG are getting into big trouble. The same applies to the Underdeveloped Countries. The poor Countries of the World are on their own. Everybody is in the Survival mode and The Fittest, The Rich, will as always Survive.

The world is not only hit by a Economic and a Cultural crisis. The world is also hit by a Climate Crisis. Although human activity plays an important (negative) role the Cycle of the Climate related to the activities of our Sun and the Movement of Earth in our System (the Precession Cycle) is much more important.

The current change in Climate is irreversible and will have a major effect on the world economy. Climate change and ecological misuse are the major factor why Societies collapse.

The last factor and perhaps most important factor is the Energy Consumption of the World. This consumption is not only affecting the Climate but it also facilitates a huge highly integrated Transport-System.

This System is the Backbone of the Integrated Value-Chains of the Western World. The Western World is completely dependent on the transport system for its Industrial Production and the Supply of Food.

The Transport System has a devastating effect on the poor countries in the World. To make enough money to survive they have to export their products to the Western Markets ignoring their own needs.

It is certain that the supply of oil and gas is lower than the increasing demand. The resources all over the world are going down. The total effect of this all will be a dramatic rise in price. This will affect the rich countries and in particular the US. They are already the major importer of energy in the World and when you import something you have to export something else to keep the financial balance in order.

As you already know the deficit of the US is spectacular and the only reason the US is not broke is the special role of the Dollar. If the economy recovers the demand and the prices will rise and the US Economy will slow down immediately.

What is Going to Happen?

Every scenario leads to a long term decline of the Economy, our Culture and our Civilization. The theory of the short term and long term cycles is right and it is very stupid to ignore these theories.

According to the Panarchy Model the world is too connected and this leads to an increasing rigidity in its goal to retain its state. The rigidity reduces resilience and the capacity of the system to absorb change, thus increasing the threat of abrupt change. The world is unable to cope with the changes of climate and culture that are happening now. Therefore we will see the collapse of the accumulated connections and the destruction of bound up knowledge and capital.

The highly integrated structures of the Earth (the Cooperative Institutions, the Big Companies, Governments AND the Transport System) are bound to desintegrate. The impact on the local structures is immens. Communities will have to grow their own food, manufacture and repair their own tools, create their own currency etc etc on a local level again.

Most of these structures have outsourced these functions to places far away and don’t have the skills nor the resources to do this. The fittest, the Haws, will survive but it is unclear if the Doves will accept this situation forever. A Rise of the Masses just like the French Revolution in 1789 (almost 250 years ago!) is possible.

The world is moving to a very fast transformation. The only thing that can be said when we use the Panarchy Model is that it will move back to a stable state before the expansion started and start all over again. The Wisdom of the Old Civilizations that survived earlier Collapses is very valuable. These lessons are very easy to comprehend.

Civilizations die because the humans don’t want to Move with the Cycles, don’t Cooperate and don’t Respect Mother Nature. When Civilizations Collaps even the Hawks lose Everything!

LINKS

Peter Schiff, Why the US Economy will Collaps this Year

How the Fed is cheating the citizins. About Deflation.

Why the Labormarket is Much Worse than we Think

Why the Current Crisis is comparable with the Great Depression

About Behavioral Economics, Why Hawks always Win and Doves always Lose

Nouriel Roubini, Ten Risks to Global Growth

About The Kondratiev Winter and the Generations Theory

About the End of the US Dollar

Why the US Defense Budget will Destroy the US Economy

Peter Turchin, About Secular Cycles

The Complete Text of the Book of Turchin

About the Problems the Real Estate Market is Facing

Why Rationalization is the cause of the current Crisis

About Cascades and Avalanches

Jared Diamond, Why Societies Collapse

About the World Food Crisis

Jeff Rubin, Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller

About Peak Oil, The Model that Predicts the End of Oil and Gas

Why The US has to be Nice, The EU has to Retaliate and the Underdeveloped Countries have to Forgive

Monday, July 7th, 2008

The Bretton Wood agreement was created in 1947 to prevent that nations use their currencies to obtain an unfair advantage.

This was the main cause of World War I en II. The countries were obliged to adopt a monetary policy that maintained the exchange rates of its currency within a fixed value.

President Nixon broke up the Bretton Woods international monetary system on Aug. 15, 1971. The US was unable to keep its finances stable because of the costs of the Vietnam War. Nixon destroyed the Foundation of the World Financial System, the Dollar.

In 1992 the exchange rates of the member states of the EU were fixed. The Euro, a new financial foundation, was born. At this moment the Dollar is not the foundation currency of the world anymore. This position is taken over by the Euro. The EU (and other countries) are paying a high price for the Economic Policy of the US. They are paying the bills of the biggest Debtor in the World.

Many US Citizens are moving into a state of panic. Not only Real Estate and Banks are in big troube. Other highly respected industrial companies like General Motors, Ford and Chrysler are close to a bankruptcy. The Entertainment Business is also on its retreat.

The Big Casino’s are losing their customers and companies like Walt Disney, CBS and Time Warner are getting in trouble. The situation of US Big Companies is so bad that Warrren Buffett, the most succesfull investor in the World, is moving his investments to Europe. He is mainly interested in family-owned companies in Germany.

The FED is unable to lower the Interest Rates. The effective interest is already negative. When they higher the rates the economy will drop into a spectacular recession. Their only hope is a Little Help from their Friends but the amount of Friends of the US is decreasing.

Finally the Climate Issue is proving itself in many ways. The Amount of Natural Disasters (Flooding, Hurricanes) is increasing. The only thing that is still not happening is a major Big Bang Earthquake.

The US Regulators (FED) are trying to stop the Recession by Lowering the Interest Rates. The FED is helping the Banking Industry to recover from the Credit Crunch but it is not helping the rest of the economy at all. The EU Regulators are trying to stop Inflation. They are doing exactly the opposite the US is doing.

Lower interest rates push down the value of the dollar. This prompts the oil-producing countries to push for higher oil prices.

The rising prices of oil and other commodities are also a result of a Rising of the economy in India, China, Russia and other countries. A small part of the World is Going Down and a big part of the world is Going Up. The total effect of this process is a growing demand and a growing demand simply increases the prices.

The growing demand has a huge effect on the World Climate. The rising economies are polluting the environment and the decreasing economies (especially the US) have polluted Earth for a long time already. The Underdeveloped Countries are just doing what the West was doing all the time. The huge change of the World Climate will eventually hit all the economies of the World.

The World is caught in a State of Catch22. Every course of action that is chosen ends in the long term in a Global Disaster.

In reality the World is changing on many levels. We are trying to stop this change. We are unable to do this because we are unable to find a Global Win-Win-situation. To find a Global Win-Win-situation we have to Change Something on Every Level All over the World.

The Western World is not accustomed to a Way Down. It believes Everything will go UP all the time. A Recession is a temporary state down between to rising states.

The Eastern World has a completely different World View. They believe the World is governed by Cycles. We have to accept the process of UP and Down because it is the Will of God. The Eastern world believes in Destiny. Eastern people are not afraid to die. Western people fear death.

In the Western World a Human is the Centre of the Universe. In the Eastern World the Human is a Part of a Whole. The Whole is much more important than the Individual. Western Democracy is trying to Unite Individuals. In the Eastern Culture it is much easier to Move the Masses.

The population in the Western World is decreasing. The population in the rest of the World is increasing. The Culture of the Eastern World will simply take over the World just by the numbers. They are the Majority and their Majority will grow. If the World would be an immense democracy The West would be without any power. The Democratic Party of the East would win every Election.

The only way for the West to stay in power is to use military technology. The US is already doing this and it is not helping us and the US at all. The fight againgst Terrorism is seen as a fight against the people of the Underdeveloped Countries. When you are hungry you do everything to get food. When your family is killed you fight back and kill the enemy. For many people in the World it is very clear that the West is the real Enemy.

If we look at the Strategy of the Financial Regulators we can see that the US Financial Regulators are Nice to the Banks and the EU Financial Regulators are Retaliating. The US Regulators are hoping the actors (mainly the Banks) in the US will start to cooperate. The EU Regulators are defecting the same Actors. Both of them are very Clear about what they want to accomplish. Both of them want to keep on moving UP.

This is for many reasons an impossible option. To keep the World in balance the West has to Go Down. His has to go Down in a controlled Action or it has to Go Down in a Forced Action. The West will be Forced by the East or it wil be Forced by Nature itself.

The Citizins of the West have be Informed about this Situation. They have to be Informed by Politicans, Writers, The Press and they have to Educate themselves. For many reasons Everybody is Hiding the News because in the West we only want to hear the Good News.

The Banks are controlling US Government and the FED is afraid to retaliate. They are afraid that the complete US Banking system will collapse.The situation is so bad that officials of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have informed the FED about a plan that would have been unheard-of in the past: a general examination of the US financial system.

The IMF’s board of directors has ruled that a so-called Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is to be carried out in the United States. It is nothing less than an X-ray of the entire US financial system. As part of the assessment, the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the major investment banks, mortgage banks and hedge funds will be asked to hand over confidential documents to the IMF team.

They will be required to answer the questions they are asked during interviews. Their databases will be subjected to so-called stress tests – worst-case scenarios designed to simulate the broader effects of failures of other major financial institutions or a continuing decline of the dollar.

The IMF is charged with the supervision of the international monetary system. Roughly two-thirds of IMF members – but never the United States – have already endured this painful procedure. For seven years, US President George W. Bush refused to allow the IMF to conduct its assessment. Even now, he has only given the IMF board his consent under one important condition. The review can begin in Bush’s last year in office, but it may not be completed until he has left the White House.

A Win-Win-situation is a state of a game called the Prisoners Dilemma. Life can be seen as a long chain of Prisoners Dilemma’s called an Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma. The Iterated Prisonners Dilemma can be won when one of the prisoners is not aimed at long term cooperation. In this case he has to cheat the other prisonner and kill him to avoid revenge. If the prisonners need each other in the future another scenario is neccesary. This scenario is called Tit-for-Tat. 

Robert Axelrod (The Evolution of Cooperation (1985)) created a computer program called, “Tit-for-Tat“. The program always wins an Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma by simply copying the behavior of the others.

Tit-for-Tat uses the following strategies:

  1. Be Nice. Start by cooperating, and never be the first to defect.
  2. Be Retaliatory. If the other player defects inflict a cost on him or her which is at least as severe – otherwise you open yourself to exploitation.
  3. Be Forgiving. If your opponent mends his ways after defecting, restore cooperation as quickly as possible, so that you can both get back to scoring highly on each round.
  4. Be Clear. Since there is no way to beat the Nice, Retaliatory and Forgiving strategy, if your opponent knows you are following it, there is no incentive for him or her to seek advantage – it will only destroy his or her score as well as yours.

Michael Liebreich applied the Tit-for-Tat strategy on the Climate Issue. He shows that we are able to solve the Climate issue when the players change their strategy. His advice is that the US needs to start being Nice, Europe needs to learn to Retaliate, and the developing world needs to Forgive. All players need to improve the Clarity with which they communicate their strategies.

At this moment the US Government is Nice to the Financial System that is braking down. It is not Nice to the rest of the World when the World Climate is at stake. The EU is still Nice to the US although the EU is paying for the braking of the US Financial System. The Developing Countries have to Forgive the US but it is very difficult to forgive somebody who is defecting the Game all the time. When you play Tit-for-Tat you have to retaliate in this stage.

When you define a Clear strategy you have to be Realistic. The world is on many levels highly unbalanced. Everybody knows that an unbalanced state will always move to a balanced state in due time. The West has to accept that the East is trying to move to the same State as the West. The West also has to accept that this is simply impossible. The Earth is incapable to provide the necessary Energy and Food. A Realistic Strategy is to Lower the West so the East is capable to Move Up.

In the West Politicians need Votes to stay in Power. To keep the majority of the Voters happy they have to Move UP the Economy. Almost nobody of the current leaders has the courage to tell the voters that the West is at the end of its cycle and has to move Down. We are taken by Destiny. The effect of the current Policy is a continuation of the Status Quo.

To move out of the Status Quo Politicians are looking for extreme certainty when they decide to change their policies. They need the backup of Scientists to show the voters that what they are Doing is the Right Thing to Do.

Science is unable to provide this certainty. The complexity of the Economic and the Ecological System of the Earth is so big that nobody is able to comprehend what is really happening and what will be the effect of a decision on the long term.

Prof. Mort Webster writes that climate policy decisions are normally made as sequential decisions over time under uncertainty – given the magnitude of uncertainty in both economic and scientific processes, the decades-to-centuries time scale of the phenomenon, and the ability to reduce uncertainty and revise decisions along the way.

Although staging climate change policy decisions over time would seem to make sense, he points out that the tendency of U.S. and international policy to change extremely slowly requires front-loading the painful decisions. Everybody knows we are moving in the wrong direction but nobody knows in detail what we have to do.

Webster shows that the best thing to do is to Prepare and Act for the Worst and change the policy for the Better in a later state. We have to take the bitter pill fast.

LINKS

About Stagflation

About the US Policy and Bretton Woods

About the effects of Bretton Woods

 

About Earthquake Storms

Friday, May 23rd, 2008

Many people today and in history (Nostrodamus, Edgar Cage,…) are predicting a Large Scale Disaster the Coming years.

There are two Major Issues, a Giant Worldwide Earthquake and the Collapse of a Big outside Object (Meteor, Planet X) into the Earth. This Blog is about Earthquakes.

Personally I don’t believe in the “Meteor” theory. A huge Solar Flare related with the Maximum of the coming Sun Cycle in 2012 is much more likely.

 

The Solar Flare will influence the Earth Magnetic Field and virtually destroy most of the current Infrastructures in the Western World. A Flare could start the “switch of the Magnetic Pole” and trigger Earthquakes.

The most predicted and documented Major Disaster is a Huge Earthquake Sequence in the Area of what is called the Ring of Fire.

The Ring of Fire

The Ring of Fire

This Sequence is started by Extreme Electro Magnetic and Gravitonial Effects (Tidal Waves) related to the Cycle of the Sun and the Movement of the Planets.

The Earth consists of a thin upper crust and molten lava, magma. The inner crust is semi-solid and hot. Like tidal waves, this molten lava is also influenced by tidal currents. The moment the high tide pull is more, it breaks open the crust and earthquakes occur. If the crust breaks completely, it results in a volcanic eruption.

The most potent quakes occur when the Sun, Jupiter, Saturn, and the Moon are in mutual potent positions like 0º, 90º, 180º, and 360º. The gravitational pull exerted on the Earth by this movement induces a change in momentum, mass and velocity of the molten lava, creating disturbances.

The Tidal and Electro Magnetic Waves start so called Earthquake Storms. The Scientist who discovered Earthquake Storms is Amos Nur.

Amos Nur is a Scientist at Stanford University in California. Nur researched the fall of a host of civilisations in the Eastern Mediterranean at the end of the Bronze Age 1200 BC.

He compared the locations of 47 ancient cities that were destroyed with maps of earthquake epicentres from the past 80 years. Almost all the cities were in areas that today suffer the most intense seismic shaking.

A complicated junction of tectonic plates, with Africa diving under Europe has created a maze of faults. The connected faults cause periods of intense earthquakes in Turkey.

The Storms appears in a cyclic pattern of 400 years. The Romans recorded a cluster in the 4th century. The same happened in the 8th and the 15th century. At this moment a new Storm is activated. The City of Istanbul is the primary target of the next step. This will create a major disaster and will affect very important old buildings like the Aya Sophia.

Another Earthquake Storm is moving along the Pacific Plate. The Storm is becoming more dangerous. Southern California is long overdue for having its next catastrophic earthquake along the Pacific-North American Plate Boundary.

A region with maximum severity is the San Jacinto Fault Zone in the Inland Empire, which acts as the pressure relief valve for the Southern San Andreas Fault Zone. The Government will be organizing one of the biggest simulations in history soon. The Model that was developed shows that one of the biggest problems will be the Water-Supply of the Big Cities in California.

Another Earthquake Storms is moving along in Korea. The Storm has the same frequency and timing of the Cycle in Turkey.

Big Earthquakes trigger “small” Earthquakes Storms. U.S. researchers who have studied earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7 have found that the “Big Ones” trigger smaller earhquakes thousands of miles away including on the opposite side of the planet and in areas not prone to quakes.

 

The strong waves are propageted all over the world and trigger small running Storms. Big Earthquake Storms (“Earthquake Tornado’s“) affect the “Earthquake Weather” all over the World.

Earthquakes are related to the Electro Magnetic Field of the Earth. The NASA-scientist Freund discovered this effect but Russian Scientists found the relationship already in 1979.

Russian Scientists discovered the Electro Magnetic Effects when they launched the Intercosmos-19 satellite in 1979. It detected an unusual low-frequency noise in a large area centred near the epicentre of an earthquake that occurred a few hours later.

It becomes clearer and clearer that the Weather in the Ionosphere and all the lower Spheres of the Earth including the Spheres that are in the “Underworld” are highly related. They are influenced by the Tidal Waves and the Electro Magnetic Waves in the Universe.

Strange Weather is related to Earthquake Storms and Earthquake Storms are like all the other processes on Earth related to Astronomical and Astrological Patterns. Not only Earth but the other Planets are moving into a Highly Instable Pattern. A very special astronomical event will trigger all the area’s of the Ring of Fire.

This special event happened long time ago and caused the end of Atlantis. We are warned by the Survivors of this Spectacular Disaster in many ways. They “generated” the prophecies but they also constructed calendars like the Mayan Calender.

The Turbulent Storms on Jupiter could also create a Spectacular Flare. The likelyhood of this Event is increasing.

Research shows that the number of natural disasters stemming from geological reasons such as Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tsunamis increased from an annual average of one incident in the 1950s to two in the 2000s.

 

The number of natural calamities arising from weather-related reasons including floods, storms and draughts jumped from an annual average of two to seven over the same period.

A recent report released by international aid agency Oxfam suggested a similar trend. The agency said that natural disasters have quadrupled in the past two decades. The number of occurrences in the early 1980s stood at 120 a year, while it skyrocketed to about 500 these days.

Unfortunately, Asia has been the hardest-hit area. About 800 cases of natural disasters have occurred in the Asian region since 2001. In particular, the most populous countries, such as Indonesia, China and India, suffered the biggest damage.

All three countries are sitting on fault lines. A number of mountains and rivers in Asian countries are prone to landslides and floods. Moreover, the coastal areas are directly exposed to tropical storms.

The United States has suffered 222 cases of natural disasters since 2001, following Asia. The country has been frequently battered by capricious and unpredictable natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornadoes. Although the number of Hurricane Katrina victims is pale in comparison to that of Asian cyclones, it was shocking that Hurricane Katrina claimed the lives of more than 1,300 people given that the number of hurricane victims has rarely exceeded 100.

In contrast, Europe is classified as the safest region in the world. The European continent has witnessed a total 180 natural disasters since 2001. Most of them were wild fires. Meanwhile, as many as 50,000 people were killed by scorching heat waves that swept through France, Italy and Portugal in 2003, and Greece and Rumania in 2007.

The Disaster Pattern is highly connected to the Sun Cycle. This Cycle is in its most dangerous zone around 2012. This date is the End Date of the Mayan Calender. This Calendar ends when a very rare Astrological Event (A Conjunction) will appear.

Many People don’t believe in Astrology. They also think the Mayan Scientists were a way behind our own Scientists. They don’t know that Astrology is looking at the Gravitational Influences of the big Masses that are surrounding us. The effect of the of the Moon on Earth and the (Female) Human is easy to see.

The Strange thing that is happening is that Our current Scientists are coming to the same conclusion as the Old Fashioned Mayas. Both of them are aware of the (complicated) cyclic patterns in Nature.

The funny thing is that the “unbelievers” also don’t want to believe Science. Perhaps they are afraid to find out that the old predictions are right. Perhaps they don’t want to accept that we, the Humans, are not able to control Nature.

We are not the managers of the Universe. We are just a part of Nature, highly influenced by the same forces that are affecting Animals, Plants, Rocks and Stones.

LINKS

The Relationship between Astrology and Earthquakes

All Kinds of Prophecies 

An Explanation of the Relationship between Astrology and Earthquakes

About the Korean Storm

About Earthquake Storms

The Pattern of the Stock Market looks like the Pattern of Earthquakes

About the War of Words

Monday, May 12th, 2008

The amount of people that are confused or are creating confusion is growing. It all has to do with Language. New words are created. Languages and Cultures are mixing. New Inventions and Theories are Created and Destroyed. We are in a highly creative phase, the End Game of Time Wave Zero. Is it possible to find the pattern behind this pattern?

The Encyclopedia Britannica is the oldest English-language encyclopedia still in print. It was first published between 1768 and 1771 in Edinburgh and quickly grew in popularity and size. The Brittanica expanded from 3 volumes in 1768 to 32 volumes today.

In France Diderot created the first French encyclopedia in 1745. It started as a translation of the English Cyclopedia of Ephraim Chambers. When he and his co-editor, mathematician Jean d’Alembert, were finished, they created a new work, the ‘Encyclopedie’. At that time it contained everything that was necessary to known about the Western World.

Its aim was “to collect all the knowledge that now lies scattered over the face of the earth, to make known its general structure to the men among we live, and to transmit it to those who will come after us,” to make men not only wiser” but also “more virtuous and more happy“.

Denis Diderot was one of the originators and interpreters of the Age of Enlightenment. This 18th-century movement was based on the belief that Reason could find True Knowledge.

During the Enlightment many scientists hoped that it would be possible to find the Eternal Truth, The Simple set of Rules that would Explain Every Thing. It was just a Matter of Time.

What they did not realize was that Truth is Highly Context Dependent. It is dependent on the Spirit of the Time, the Knowledge and Interpretation of the Writer of the Context, The Status of the Writer and the Genesis of Science.

Not only Knowledge changes but also Words change their meaning all the time. Everything Changes and the only thing that is left is to accept this Fact of Life.

The awareness of the problem of the Eternal Truth has created Cynicism. Scientists especially in the Social Sciences (Post-Modernism, Deconstruction) don’t believe it will be possible to find any objective general accepted pattern or explanation. They are fighting the goals of the highly rational Enlightment with very complicated rational arguments of their own.

When the exponential rise of Novelty predicted by Time Wave Zero (and other comparable models) reaches the Point Omega we will be literally lost in Space. Innovations that took centuries to happen in history will happen in a few days.

It is really true that there are no general Explanations possible? Is Everything Context Dependent?

The problem that the Eternal Change of our primary communication vehicle, Language, is creating is analyzed by many great minds in history. Perhaps the greatest genius was Wittgenstein. At the end of his life his students put all his Observations (he did not believe in Theory) in something called The Blue and Brown Books. In these books he is teaching the Art of Clarification.

Wittgenstein invented a new way of looking at the world called a Family Resemblance. If we gather together members of the same Family, they probably Look Alike, although there is no Distinctive Feature that they all share in Common. A brother and a sister might have the same dark eyes, while that sister and her father share a slightly turned-up nose.

They share a group of features, some of which are more distinctly present in some members of the family, while some features are not present at all. Wittgenstein argues that the different uses of one word and rules share the same Family Resemblance.

A Family is a Vague Set of Relationships that have something in Common but the parts of the set are Different. A Family is a unique set of permutations of distinctive features.

The only way to recognize a Family is to meet the members and create an intuition, a feeling. To do this we have to leave our study room and walk around in Reality. We have to move into the Context instead of floating above The Context.

Floating above the Context is called Imagining. There is nothing wrong with imagining. The imagination (Spirit) is the Mother of Art. Changing Art into a Science Destroys the Beauty of the Work of Art. Just like a Family a Piece of Art shows a pattern but is also shows exceptions of the pattern. The exceptions show a pattern but this pattern also contains a pattern. The world is a self-reference, a Fractal.

Scientists don’t realize that they are creating Fiction. When they would realize that they are producing Fiction they would certainly improve their Style. Scientific Fiction (a Genre) is mostly unreadable for other Scientists and especially for “Normal” people like me.

There are Many Families and there are even Families of Families. Some people have been born with a Talent to Observe one Family. Others are aware of completely different Families. All of them share features but it will never be possible to find The Set of all Sets of features. Finding the set of sets created a huge problem in Mathematics. It was the main reason why Wittgenstein changed his “theory”. He left the field of Mathematics, spend years in complete isolation (he was a teacher) until the people of Cambridge begged him to come back.

It does not help to spend a lot of time to discuss a joint Family. It only creates a War of the Words or a nicer term of Wittgenstein, A Language Game. A major part of Scientific Fiction is about the Quest to find the general Definitions of the set of all sets, The Holy Grail of Science… When we spend too much time to Fight we will never See.

The quest of Objectivity shows itself in the Use of Statistics. Scientists are unable to find the right Context (a Family) but they are also unaware of the Fractal Structure of the Universe. They are also completely unaware about the boundaries of Statistics. They accept the General Truth of Statistics without any awareness of the background.

What is the solution to all these problems?

The fist step is to accept the Spiraling Spiral and Self-Reference as the fundamental Fractal of the Universe. It is really a simple clarifying explanation.

The next step is to determine the Level and the Phase of the Spiral You are in (Style, Chronotope, Family, Network, Field of Reference, Bias). It determines what You are able to See and Do. It defines the Place in Time/Space you are Watching. If You want to move to another Level or State change the State of Your Awareness.

The last step is to feel the Movement of the Force of Life, The Tao,  and connect to this Movement. If you have accomplished this all the Clarifications you are looking for are given to you by the Great Force of Creation, Inspiration.

About the Infinite Game

Thursday, February 7th, 2008

In the Western World many people play the Analytic Game. The Analytical Game resolves the conflict between the Facts of the Senses and the  Models, Rules and Norms of the Human Prediction System, the Expectation (often called Thinking).

The complementary Game is what Will McWhinney and his friend Burkhard Sievers, called the Game that Creates New Games.

James P. Carse (A Vision of Life as Play and Possibility) calls this game the Infinite Game. Perhaps a much better name would be the Game of Life.

Life is a Journey

Infinite players play with rules and boundaries. They include them as part of their playing. They aren’t taking them serious, and they can never be trapped by them, because they use rules and boundaries to play with.

The players are always busy to continue the Game of Life by creating new Games.

They love to play but the aim is not to win because winning ends the game.

The Infinite Game is a Game where the Imagination and the Emotions are playing their roles. The Emotions e-valua-te and the Imagination creates.

A very important distinction between the two Games is Context. The Analytic Game is “above the Context”.

It uses the Abstractions of Maps and Diagrams. When you use a map to travel you will never see the real territory.

The Game of Life is “in the Context”.  In this game Life is a Journey. You will meet people you will never meet when your life is completely planned and you will see places nobody has seen before.

Life Above the Context is dull and predictable.

Life In the Context is an Adventure and Full of Risks.

Evaluation is a Context-Dependent Process. It takes into account that every Situation is unique and needs a unique approach.

The Game of Life is an Improvisation

The Game of Life is about Improvisation. You listen to the Rythm and the central Theme and start your own variation that is “in line with the flow”.

Sometimes you are the person who starts a new rhythm and a new theme and others follow you. You are there at the right time and the right moment.

Timing is essential in the Game of Life.

The Game of Life is about the Tao and Synchronicity. Things happen by accident but the events are meaningful. They are created by the Imagination.

The Game of Life is about Magic. You are the creator of your own reality and your creation bounces back on you. Reality produces signs but the signs are the result of your own creation.

Your personal Magic becomes much stronger when you have a vision and you believe in this vision.

The Game of Life is about belief and not about truth. You know there is no eternal truth because everything changes but behind the changes is an emerging pattern.

The pattern is chaotic and structured. It arise out of the Whole and moves back into the Whole.

The Game of Life is the game of AND. Life is a contradiction, an eternal conflict, a dilemma because meaning is created by “making the difference‘. It is the Comm-Union of Diversity.

The Game of Life is about Spirit (Imagination) and Soul (Emotion).

The Game of Life is Immortal. When the Fire of the compassion of your soul and the Light of your spirit becomes One with the stream of Creation  you will live for ever.

The Game of Life is eternal and new Games are created all the time.

The Games are not competitive but collaborative.

The Game is fueled by Ideas and Ideas are abundant. Some of them stay for a long time. Other ideas just arise and move away like clouds in the Wind.

The Game is Life is a Field. It contains (Standing) Waves and Waves merge without any problem.

dance

The Game of Life is the Game of Music, Dance and Poetry. It does not force. It gives you the freedom of your own interpretation, your own mood.

The Game of Life is a Spiraling Spiral.

The Game of Life is about Values and Quality.

Your personal Values help you to evaluate and Quality is what you want to accomplish.

Quality is the complement of Quantity.

It is something the Numbers and the Names are unable to Express.

LINKS

About the theories of Will McWhinny

About Buckert Sievert

About the Infinite Game of James P. Carse

About Boundaries

About Context

About Adventure

About Synchronicity

About Collaboration

About Fields

About (Standing) Waves

About Music

About Poetry

About the Spiraling Spiral

About Values and Quality