Posts Tagged ‘US’

Many Reasons to Believe that the Economy will not Recover in a Short Time

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

The Unemployement and the Stock Market are rising for some time now. A new Stock Market Bubble is building up and will explode in the near future. The biggest Bubble is certainly the US Deficit Bubble.

The Stock Market Bubble and the Deficit Bubble will explode as soon as the major creditors (China, India, …) of the US will move out of the Dollar. This is happening already.

The Customers are the backbone of the Economy and the Leaders understand very well that the Economy is governed by Psychology. So Bad News is hidden en Good News is exaggerated. The Expectations of Analysts are always beaten and the downfall is falling slower than before.

The Economy is still in a terrible state and this state is getting worse every day. The unemployement is still rising and will rise for a very long time because companies are getting broke or are rationalizing everything that is possible.

They replace their employees by IT-Technology and Cheap Labor. The customers are not buying, they are saving more and more money for a rainy day or are paying back their debts.

Saving money will not stimulate the economy. It stimulates unemployment. The rising unemployement results in more foreclosures and problems with credit card debts. The Economic Downturn is just at its beginning.

Economist John Williams says that– if the unemployment rate was calculated as it was during the Great Depression the unemployment figures for July 2009 rose to 20.6%. According to an article summarizing the projections of former International Monetary Fund Chief Economist and Harvard University Economics Professor Kenneth Rogoff and University of Maryland Economics Professor Carmen Reinhart,… unemployment could rise to 22% within the next 4 years or so.”

The Scenario of the Current Downturn is highly comparable with the Scenario of the Great Depression with one exception. The current Downturn is much deeper than the other. We are approaching the Biggest Global Economic Crisis in Human History.

The current investors base their policy on positive news and ignore the bad news. They believe the economy will rise when the customer-confidence is rising or when the downfall of the economy is “slowing down” or “bottoming”. They don’t see that a slowing down of a downfall is still a downfall.

The investors, the Doves, act just like the behavioral economists predict they will act. They read the headlines, believe the Hawks and are not aware of the (Money) Illusion the Government, the Media and the Banks are creating. The Hawks know better. They buy Silver, Gold and certainly the best investment, Oil.

Nouriel Roubini has a more realistic view on the economy. In his article Ten Risks to Global Growth he analyses the risks that could block the recovery of the economy and his conclusion is highly pessimistic.

According to Roubini the major cause of the crisis is overspending. Overspending is a normal activity when the Kondratiev-Cycle is in the state of Autumn. The debts are always repayed in the next phase, Winter. In the Kondratiev Winter the economy is purged and cleansed. This phase started around 2000 and will be finished around 2013. In the Winter-State you have to stay in cash or invest is Gold and Silver.

At this moment the investors don’t know what currency they have to chose for their cash-reserves. Usually the Dollar was a Save Heaven but the current policy of the FED to expand the amount of Dollars to an almost unbelievable amount is seen as a huge risk.

The Creditors (China, India, ..) of the US are already creating an alternative currency and are secretly and slowly moving out of the Dollar. If the Trust in the Dollar has gone the US Economy will go bankrupt.

The big problem with the current Cycle is that we have moved to the Level of Earth. In the last downfall of the Kondratiev Cycle other parts of the world were decoupled. They moved in a complementary mode. The Down of one part of the Earth was compensated by an Up somewhere else.

At this moment the complementary parts are synchronized and act and react according to the same rhythm. This rhythm is related to a longer term cycle that almost nobody is aware of. This cycle with a periodicity of 250 years is called the Secular Cycle.

The current level of integration of the World Economy is very dangerous. The production-processes of the Earth are highly rationalized and integrated. When one process stops the rest of the processes also has to stop.

The very high level of rationalization causes cascades or avalanches. The fast and slow avalanches generate sudden bursts of unemployment and financial disasters. The Car Industry and the Financial Industry are good examples. At this moment the avalanches start new avalanches in completely different branches of the tree of the World Economy.

The Crisis in the Banking Industry puts a large part of the Corporate Sector under severe financial stress. Firms that in the past would have been able to roll over their loans, bonds and debts now face a liquidity crisis that may lead them into costly debt restructuring.

This will affect the Banking Industry and will also put a high strain on the Bailout capacity of the Governments who are not able to leant money or inflate money until eternity.

The only solution that is left is to Rationalize even more than the Companies were planning to do. Their only solution is to speed up the use of IT (Use the Internet) and fire the employees. It is very clear that the use of IT in Companies is still in its infancy. Many manual activities can be replaced by software. The total effect will be a worsening of the current crisis.

To stop the cascades governments are starting to Protect and Regulate their Economies. The Worldwide Cooperative Institutions are losing their grip and the Free Market Economy is on its return.

Big Companies are splitted according to the old Boundaries of Power. The expansion and integration of the EG is blocked because the member states suddenly have conflicting objectives. The Rich Countries don’t want to help the Poor Countries because the Rich Countries are getting poorer with the minute.

Not only the poor member states of the EG are getting into big trouble. The same applies to the Underdeveloped Countries. The poor Countries of the World are on their own. Everybody is in the Survival mode and The Fittest, The Rich, will as always Survive.

The world is not only hit by a Economic and a Cultural crisis. The world is also hit by a Climate Crisis. Although human activity plays an important (negative) role the Cycle of the Climate related to the activities of our Sun and the Movement of Earth in our System (the Precession Cycle) is much more important.

The current change in Climate is irreversible and will have a major effect on the world economy. Climate change and ecological misuse are the major factor why Societies collapse.

The last factor and perhaps most important factor is the Energy Consumption of the World. This consumption is not only affecting the Climate but it also facilitates a huge highly integrated Transport-System.

This System is the Backbone of the Integrated Value-Chains of the Western World. The Western World is completely dependent on the transport system for its Industrial Production and the Supply of Food.

The Transport System has a devastating effect on the poor countries in the World. To make enough money to survive they have to export their products to the Western Markets ignoring their own needs.

It is certain that the supply of oil and gas is lower than the increasing demand. The resources all over the world are going down. The total effect of this all will be a dramatic rise in price. This will affect the rich countries and in particular the US. They are already the major importer of energy in the World and when you import something you have to export something else to keep the financial balance in order.

As you already know the deficit of the US is spectacular and the only reason the US is not broke is the special role of the Dollar. If the economy recovers the demand and the prices will rise and the US Economy will slow down immediately.

What is Going to Happen?

Every scenario leads to a long term decline of the Economy, our Culture and our Civilization. The theory of the short term and long term cycles is right and it is very stupid to ignore these theories.

According to the Panarchy Model the world is too connected and this leads to an increasing rigidity in its goal to retain its state. The rigidity reduces resilience and the capacity of the system to absorb change, thus increasing the threat of abrupt change. The world is unable to cope with the changes of climate and culture that are happening now. Therefore we will see the collapse of the accumulated connections and the destruction of bound up knowledge and capital.

The highly integrated structures of the Earth (the Cooperative Institutions, the Big Companies, Governments AND the Transport System) are bound to desintegrate. The impact on the local structures is immens. Communities will have to grow their own food, manufacture and repair their own tools, create their own currency etc etc on a local level again.

Most of these structures have outsourced these functions to places far away and don’t have the skills nor the resources to do this. The fittest, the Haws, will survive but it is unclear if the Doves will accept this situation forever. A Rise of the Masses just like the French Revolution in 1789 (almost 250 years ago!) is possible.

The world is moving to a very fast transformation. The only thing that can be said when we use the Panarchy Model is that it will move back to a stable state before the expansion started and start all over again. The Wisdom of the Old Civilizations that survived earlier Collapses is very valuable. These lessons are very easy to comprehend.

Civilizations die because the humans don’t want to Move with the Cycles, don’t Cooperate and don’t Respect Mother Nature. When Civilizations Collaps even the Hawks lose Everything!

LINKS

Peter Schiff, Why the US Economy will Collaps this Year

How the Fed is cheating the citizins. About Deflation.

Why the Labormarket is Much Worse than we Think

Why the Current Crisis is comparable with the Great Depression

About Behavioral Economics, Why Hawks always Win and Doves always Lose

Nouriel Roubini, Ten Risks to Global Growth

About The Kondratiev Winter and the Generations Theory

About the End of the US Dollar

Why the US Defense Budget will Destroy the US Economy

Peter Turchin, About Secular Cycles

The Complete Text of the Book of Turchin

About the Problems the Real Estate Market is Facing

Why Rationalization is the cause of the current Crisis

About Cascades and Avalanches

Jared Diamond, Why Societies Collapse

About the World Food Crisis

Jeff Rubin, Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller

About Peak Oil, The Model that Predicts the End of Oil and Gas

About the Psychological Defense System

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

Human beings and the other organisms always want to avoid pain. There are many mechanisms called the Psychological Defenses to do this. One of them, called Repression, blocks painful memories. People Repress the thought that Prices of Houses and Shares always go Up and Down, Excessive Borrowing is Dangerous and Politicians always act on the Short-Term.

When something happens that violates the Human Believe System humans don’t see or hear what is really happening. They start to Deny the Facts and look for arguments that support their denial. Politicians are experts in using the Human Defense System.

The Economic Cycle, The Kondratiev, the Cycle of Culture, The Cycle of the Climate, and the Long Term Cycles were in favour of a very Long Boom of Western Civilization but now all the Cycles are Moving Down.

The Kondratiev will be Moving Down until 2012, the Cycle of Western Culture is Moving Down and the Cycle of the East (China, India) is Moving UP, The Cycle of the Climate is moving to an Ice Age and last but not least the very long Cycle of the Precession is around 2012 moving into the Age of the Aquirius, the Waterbearer. According to very old (and new) prophecies Human Consciousness will move to a Higher Level.

The Big Trouble is that the temptation appears strong to continue to repress rather than to confront. While people seem eager to reduce debt and spending and reset the economy, governments respond to the excesses with more excesses, especially massive borrowing and spending. The same applies to the Climate Issue. Instead of confronting people with the spectacular Irriversible Changes that take place in the World Climate Politicians and Scientists suggest that the changes can be reverted by introducing Green Technology.

The best way to implement a huge change is to ACT immediatly and spend enough time to help the people to get accustomed to the Change.

We have to take the bitter pill first.

President Bush was an expert in the psychological defence of Projection. Bush used the Negative Side of the Current Situation and projected every possible cause on an outside Enemy, the Terrorists. Bush used Fear to motivate his Voters.

The new President Obama is doing the opposite. He always talks about a Bright Shared Future.  Instead of Fear Obama uses Hope.

Hope can turn into Disappointment when the Expectations are not realized. When the Expectations Fail People get Frustrated and move into the Negative, Agressive and Impulsive Mode of the Reptile Brain. Fear takes over again.

Obama and Bush are playing with a very important part of the Human Being called the Expectation.

The Expectation is the Human Calculator. It tries to predict the Future to avoid pain. The Emotions, The Imagination. the Senses and the Consciousness are the other parts of the Five Fold Human Being. The Senses face the Facts. The Emotions are looking for Shelter and Love. The Imagination wants to Create and the Consciousness manages the Four Parts and brings them in Balance.

If the Expectation is dominating the Human Being he experiences the Fear to lose Control. The best way to solve this problem is to Face the Facts.

Obama Rescues the World Economy in London, Heales the Nato Alliance in Strasbourg, gets rid of Nuclear Weapons in Prague and Reconciles Islam and the West in Ankara. Before that time he has already solved the problems in Afghanistan (When there is Peace everybody will Work Together), saved the US Economy (Increase the Budget), the World Climate (Invest in Green Technology) and the US Banking System (Bail Out).

When you define a Clear strategy you have to be Realistic.

The world is on many levels highly unbalanced. Everybody knows that an unbalanced state will always move to a balanced state in due time. The West has to accept that the East is trying to move to the same State as the West. The West also has to accept that this is simply impossible. The Earth is incapable to provide the necessary Energy and Food.

A Realistic Strategy is to Lower the West so the East is capable to Move Up.

In the West Politicians need Votes to stay in Power. To keep the majority of the Voters happy they have to Move UP the Economy. Almost nobody of the current leaders has the courage to tell the voters that the West is at the end of its Cycle and has to move Down. The effect of the current Policy is a continuation of the Status Quo.

To move out of the Status Quo Politicians are looking for extreme certainty when they decide to change their policies. They need the Rational Backup of the Scientists to show the voters that what they are Doing is the Right Thing to Do.

Science is unable to provide this certainty. The complexity of the Economic and the Ecological System of the Earth is so big that nobody is able to comprehend what is really happening and what will be the effect of a decision on the long term.

It is really not difficult to determine what has to happen. The only thing that is difficult is to sell the message to people that are denying reality and therefore cannot face the real problems.

To keep Hope Alive Obama has to Deny the Negative Aspects of Western Society. He has to show that everybody is moving in the Same Positive Direction. To avoid a Huge Conflict he has to Compromise with the Current Economic Power Structures in Western Society. They created the Crisis and are still capable to deepen the Crisis. He simply needs their Cooperation.

The big question is how far he will go in his cooperative actions. Someday he has to make a choice and every choice has its consequences.

If he balances the Budget the Economy will Crash.

If he abandons the Dollar and chooses for a “world currency” the Dollar will crash.

If he choses to protect his own Economy other Countries will do the same and the US Export will crash.

If he leaves the East others will take over the Power in this Region. The East is still needed to provide Energy.

Russia owns a lot of Energy, wants to become a World Power and is expanding its territory again. They are blackmaling Germany with their pipelines. The European Union has lost its cohesion. The Rich and the Poor countries have different aims. The Eastern Countries need the protection of the West to keep Russia within its boundaries. The Western Countries are not able to pay for the Eastern Counties. Almost all the members of the current EG are against the entrance of Turkey. Turkey will destroy the fragile balance in Europe. The US needs Turkey as an ally to keep a balance in the Moslim World.

China and India want to expand their economy. They have creaed a coalition (BRIG) with Russia, Latin-American Countries and African Countries (South-Africa!). In terms of population they represent the Majority of the World. Pakistan is still the biggest enemy of India. Some day there will be huge nuclear conflict and the US has to make a choice. If the US suppports India Pakistan as a state will be destroyed and the extreme muslims will take over the Power in the East. They will become a huge threat for the Eastern Borders of Russia.

It looks like the US has no choice to make friends and to stay friends with the Political Leaders that are still acting in the big Power-Plays of the World. All the Big Players are playing their own Game. They change their relationships without any problem when their own targest are violated.

If the new President keeps on playing the Game of Compromise he will lose his Voters soon and the Competitors, the Republicans, will be able to go on with their Strategy. They just wait and see to take over the Power.

William K. Black, the former Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention ,shows that Obama is helping the Financial Elite of the US to get out of Trouble. According to William Black they have committed Fraude at a scale nobody has seen before.

The US Government is creating a Huge Cover Up to avoid the End of Hope and the Beginning of a Revolution that could lead to extreme Violence by the People that are the real Victims, the US Citizins.

When you watch this video below you will experience a State of Anger and old memories about the way the Elites cover their asses will come back. You will be disappointed about the way Obama is handling the situation. If you don’t want to wake Up out of a the State of Repression I advice you not to watch or to Deny what William Black is trying to explain.

You could also Erase your Memory.

LINKS

About the Psychological Defenses System

About the New US Foreign Policy

How the Financial Elite Engineered the Great Depression

About Confrontations and Conflicts

About Projection and Introspection

How to define a Clear Strategy

How to Make Everybody Happy

Monday, December 8th, 2008

Obama wants to stimulate the US Economy by investing a Huge amount of Dollars in Infrastructure. He is not worried about the US Deficit. Big Spending is needed to create jobs and creating jobs is priority number one. If he is not worried about the Deficit I would advice him to change his plan and just give everybody in the US enough money to buy what they want. This would really boost the Economy in a very short time.

The US Deficit is rising and because of many factors (mainly the Baby Boomers) the deficit will rise to almost 53.000.000.000 US Dollars.

It is possible for the US to go on spending without taking care of its budget?

If nobody wants the US to pay back his debt Everything is Possible. If the US Citizens start to consume every country in the World will benefit because every country in the World wants to sell its products to the US.

Why don’t we give a lot of money to the Underdeveloped Countries too? Many people are starving to death.

He could do that too. Obama is the President of the US and the US is the biggest power in the World. He is able to do everything he wants to do and everybody will like his plan. If your are the President of the US you have to ACT BIG.

Why don’t we give everybody in the Whole World what they really want?

He could do this too. In a few years Everybody in the Whole Wide World will be Happy. This is really the Big Thing.

But wait.

The US is still the biggest Military Power in the World. The US is spending about $1 trillion per year to finance its Defense Budget. Obama wants to spend about $700 billion to boost the economy. When everybody is happy you don’t need an army. This would save $300 billion to help the poor people in the Word. If everybody is happy all the other countries don’t need an army too. This would save even more money. Making everybody in the World Happy is a good plan.

But wait.

If the US is not paying for an Army many people in the US and other countries will be out of work. It will also kill the Weapon Industry. They have to find another job. Perhaps they could find a job in Healthcare.

But wait.

If everybody is happy the amount of sick people will decrease. This will have an impact on the Pharmaceutical Industry and many other Industries. They have to find another job. Perhaps they could find a job in the Media.

But wait.

If everybody is happy the Media will lose jobs because Bad News is always Good News. They have to find another job. Perhaps they could find a job in Agriculture or Education.

But wait.

If people are happy they produce less children and we need the Children to give the Teachers something to do. We will need less food and if you work in Agriculture you don’t need much Education. They have to find another job.

Sorry. I will stop.

I don’t think it is a good plan to spend money to make everybody happy in the World. If everybody is happy the problems get bigger and bigger. I now understand why people are consuming. They are consuming because they are not happy. The US needs Enemies to keep the US Citizens Consuming.

But wait.

If the Enemies of the US are not happy they will ask the US to balance its budget. So someday Obama has to do something.

What?

Increase the Budget of the Army.

Good plan!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_TjBNjc9Bo ( A Video about the future US Deficit).

About the Grand Chessboard of Zbigniew Machiavelli

Monday, November 24th, 2008

I am afraid the big change of Obama will not change anything at all. It looks like the financial elite has placed a new pawn on the chessboard but the game and the players stay the same. The Geopolitical Players are defining a strategy to beat Russia and China.

Obama is surrounding himself with old fashioned politicians who are part of the old fashioned networks of the financial Elite. They are part of the famous World Conspiracy Groups like the Bilderberg Group, the Council of Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission.

Obama is announcing the old-fashioned New Deal of Franklin D. Roosevelt to save the US and will use the same money printing machine of the FED to finance his plan.

The big difference with the time of Roosevelt is that the US is completely broke and has to start to pay his debts. Obama is postponing this moment because he knows (and the Elite knows) that the US Citizens are not prepared to move back to a state of poverty.

To save and to create jobs Obama has to Protect the US Economy againts the outflow of jobs to the New Economies, China and India. The emerging state of economic protection will generate huge effects in the World. When the US starts to protect its market others will follow soon.

The big question is if every country in the world will support the new policy of the US. The United States is still befriended with the four oil-rich Gulf States.

The US has already asked them 300 billion dollars to prevent its financial meltdown. The US is still by far wasting the biggest amount biggest of energy in the world and the Arabs need the US to sell their oil.

The biggest adversaries of the US, China and Russia are united in what is called the Shanghai Cooperation. The cooperation is connected to India and Pakistan but also to countries like South Africa and Brazil (BRIC).

One of the important geo-political strategists of the US is Zbigniew Brzezinski. He was one of the advisors of Obama on foreign policy. Brzezinski was also National Security Adviser of President Carter, the creator of the Trilateral Commission and an Associate of Henry Kissinger.

A few citations: “…The last decade of the twentieth century has witnessed a tectonic shift in world affairs. For the first time ever, a non-Eurasian power has emerged not only as a key arbiter of Eurasian power relations but also as the world’s paramount power. The defeat and collapse of the Soviet Union was the final step in the rapid ascendance of a Western Hemisphere power, the United States, as the sole and, indeed, the first truly global power…”

About 75 per cent of the world’s people live in Eurasia, and most of the world’s physical wealth is there as well, both in its enterprises and underneath its soil. Eurasia accounts for 60 per cent of the world’s GNP and about three-fourths of the world’s known energy resources.”"The most immediate task is to make certain that no state or combination of states gains the capacity to expel the United States from Eurasia.”

The strategy and tactics of Brzezinski and his colleagues (Kissinger) have inspired every government of the US until now. It becomes very clear why there is a war in Afghanistan and why Irak had to be destroyed. The aim is to create one dominant power that is controlling the World called the United States.

The power of the Sovjet Union was destroyed by Financial Warfare and Political Instability (Kosovo) generated by the US and its allies (including the Netherlands!).

The Sovjet Union has recovered and has restored its old fashioned control structure. It is has started a new expansion strategy and slowly moving to the West. Putin knows that NATO is unable to resist his policy because the focus of NATO is in the East.

Putin also knows that the West (especiallyGermany) needs his huge resouces of oil and gaz. He knows that the Pipelines are the most strategic tools to manipulate the EG.

He also knows that Germany is deep within not an Adversary but a Companion. The only thing he has to do is break the EG. This will happen soon because of the big internal differences between the Rich and the Poor Countries.

China has become one of the most powerful nations in the World. An alliance between the two (and with Germany the tree) old fashioned adversaries of the US is a super treat for the dominance of the West.

It is very clear that the US is losing its strategic positions in every part of the world except the Middle East. In this area Iran is the most important adversary and it is very clear why the US together with its ally Israel is trying to play the same trick it used with Irak to start a new war.

What will happen?

The CIA will go on with its destabilization programs. They will create new enemys of the West to justify military activity (Afghanistan). Military activity always helps to stimulate the economy and keeps the focus of the citizens away from the real game.

Financial Warfare has proven to be a very effective tactic. The activities of the FED will be aimed at destabilizing China. Russia is already in trouble. The closure of the US Economy will stop the economic explosion of China. The only thing that is left for the BRIC-countries is to create an internal market and a common currency. Other countries in the world have to make a choice. Will they follow the leadership of the US or join the still growing economies of BRIC. In the End the Old fashioned Cold War between the US and the Communists (Russia/China/India,…) will start again.

The last and the most helpful activity to destroy the enemies and to speed up the economy will be an old fashioned (Third) World War. The battlefield of this war has to be far away from the US to avoid “nasty” consequences. Eastern Europe (Germany, Poland, …) is by far the best place to act. You have to do this without disturbing the relationship with EU. This is simple.

The big trouble is that Germany and Russia have already negociated a secret treaty. They have divided Europe into two territories that have a lot in common with the famous Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Hilter and Stalin. The only thing Germany has to do is to break the EG into two parts.  This will generate a high tension between the old adversaries Germany and France.  

The EU will be in big trouble because of the economic crisis and every country will act on its own as soon as the weak countries (Spain, Greece, Portugal, Eastern Europe) really get into trouble. They will protect their economies and this will destabilize the European Union. The only thing you have to do to is to tease the Russians. They just want to be respected as a Super Power. Isolate them and show them that they are a powerless nation and they will become terribly angry.

The geopolitical players and followers of Machiavelli (Kissinger, Brzezinski, Poetin) don’t care about human lifes. They don’t care about democracy. Their only aim is to stay in power and to increase their power.

Machiavelli became famous by his book the Prince. It is a political cookbook for politicians to stay in power. The most important lesson is deceit. The politician has to show all the positive qualities needed to be loved by the people. He has to be merciful, faithful, humane, frank, and religious, but he should only seem to have these qualities.

A politician cannot truly have these qualities because at times it is necessary to act against them. The only ethic that matters is one that is beneficial to the politician in dealing with the concerns of his state. If his country wants a redeemer he has to look like a redeemer but behind the scene everything is allowed. You have to admit Obama is a great Actor and the Role of the Redeemer fits him well.

To defeat your opponents you have to commit them to your cause. If you are blamed. They are blamed also. The best way to beat the Clintons is to make them your partner. Hillary understands and practiced Machiavelli.

Introducing change is the most stupid thing you can do. You have to make everybody believe that the old is new. Everybody believes the New Deal was succesful and Roosevelt was a succesful president. So why not copy his scenario and (re)play his role.

`We must bear in mind, then, that there is nothing more difficult and dangerous, or more doubtful of success, than an attempt to introduce a new order of things in any state. For the innovator has for enemies all those who derived advantages from the old order of things, whilst those who expect to be benefited by the new institutions will be but lukewarm defenders. This indifference arises in part from fear of their adversaries who were favoured by the existing laws, and partly from the incredulity of men who have no faith in anything new that is not the result of well-established experience. Hence it is that, whenever the opponents of the new order of things have the opportunity to attack it, they will do it with the zeal of partisans, whilst the others defend it but feebly, so that it is dangerous to rely upon the latter.”

When his Power is at stake the Prince has to start a war.

A PRINCE ought to have no other aim or thought, nor select anything else for his study, than war and its rules and discipline; for this is the sole art that belongs to him who rules, and it is of such force that it not only upholds those who are born princes, but it often enables men to rise from a private station to that rank. And, on the contrary, it is seen that when princes have thought more of ease than of arms they have lost their states. And the first cause of your losing it is to neglect this art; and what enables you to acquire a state is to be master of the art“.

The big problem are mercenaries. To fight a war you need warriors who are dedicated to You and Nobody Else. Always please the Military Elite.

He who holds his State by means of mercenary troops can never be solidly or securely seated. For such troops are disunited, ambitious, insubordinate, treacherous, insolent among friends, cowardly before foes, and without fear of God or faith with man. Whenever they are attacked defeat follows; so that in peace you are plundered by them, in war by your enemies. And this because they have no tie or motive to keep them in the field beyond their paltry pay

When you want to fight a war fight a war with people who are not thinking in terms of strategy. The Chinese are highly stategic. They practise the Art of War of Sun Tzu. When you apply Sun Tzu you never fight a war. You exhaust your opponent. The best way to create a war is to tease your opponent to destroy himself.

My advice

If the current pattern is sustained my advice would be to find a hiding place. This hiding place has to be outside the area of the big earthquakes. It also has to be rather close to the equator because we will soon experience a new Ice Age. You have to be able to grow your own food so you need seeds and soil. Avoid the contaminated area’s in the world. The last thing is to avoid the battle ground of the last big war (Germany, Poland, Sweden).

How about Spain or Portugal?

Of course I could be wrong. Perhaps he is the real redeemer and I am deceiting myself because I don’t believe in honest politicians anymore. The best thing to do not to wait and see but to Act. The Citizens of the World don’t need big government to get into action. Creating networks is simple and everything you need is somewhere already available (even money). It is all about making the right connection!

LINKS

About Financial Warfare

About the FED Conspiracy

 The Grand Chessboard — American Primacy And It’s Geostrategic Imperatives,” Zbigniew Brzezinski, Basic Books, 1997

The text of the Prince of Machiavelli

Why the Russians always win a war

About the coming Ice Age

About Financial Warfare

Saturday, October 25th, 2008

Banking originates around 3000 BC in Babylonia out of the activities of temples and palaces which provided safe places for the storage of valuables. Initially deposits of grain are accepted and later other goods including cattle, agricultural implements, and precious metals.

In a later stage Silver and Gold were used to pay. From that time on Silver and Gold became weapons of war and a good reason to fight a war.

By 700 BC, the Lydians became the first in the Western world to make coins. Countries were soon minting their own series of coins with specific values. Some of the earliest known paper money dates back to China, where the issue of paper money became common from about AD 960 onwards.

Paper currency and non-precious coinage was backed by a government or bank’s promise to exchange it for a certain amount of silver or gold.

The last innovation in Money is called Fiat-Money. In this case the currency is not backed by anything but the promise of a country to enforce payment. Fiat-Money is the ultimate money generator. Governments are able to create infinite amounts of value without any guarantee.

 

The only guarantee is the performance of the economic system of the Country itself and the Power of the Government to force their citizens to pay the neccesary taxes. The Fiat-System has created an enormous amount of hyperinflated countries.

The US is one of the countries where paying taxes is seen as a sin. The only way to gurantee the Fiat Money is to generate a high level of inflation and/or a tremendous debt. At this moment the US is the biggest debtor in the world and it is not capable to pay his debts. The US is completely broke.

The US Fiat-System is the real cause of the current wordwide crisis. If this problem is not solved in due time all economic activity in the World will come to an end.

We will experience the same situation that existed in Germany between the two world wars (the Weimar Republic) and in many other countries were the value of money became hyperinflated. As you will see later the US Government is not able to control their own money supply.

Thomas Jefferson the third President of the US knew what would happen when the Fiat-System would be introduced in the US. This was his warning:

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks]… will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. …The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs“.

The most important practice to cheat with coins was to alter the quality or the quantity of the precious metals by reducing the weight, mixing precious metals with other metals and/or covering cheap metals with precious metals.

When paper money was introduced it became much easier to cheat. Paper Notes were copied and the kings and governments started to play with the stock of gold and silver that was needed to back the paper notes.

The precious metals also became a very important instrument of warfare. When the amount of precious metals went down the Kings were unable to pay their soldiers and had to stop fighting. Another tactic was to generate inflation or deflation. The economy of the enemy could be destroyed by influencing the economic cycle by manipulating the amount of precious metals or banknotes.

Financial manipulation or Financial Warfare on every scale is as old as the civilized world.

 Every country in the world is protecting its economy by intervening in the global currency market, the Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX). These interventions are performed by the Central Banks. Most of the Central Banks are controlled by Government. An exception is the US FED.

At this moment there are three groups of Central Banks, The US (Federal Reserve), The European Union (including the UK) and what I would call the China-connection. This last group contains Brasil, Russia, India (BRIC), and many more rising economies like Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. The China Connection is becoming one of the most powerful groups.

The first central bank of Europe was created by the Knight Templars. The medieval European Knight Templar were a medieval military and religious Order which officially came to a controversial and mysterious end on Friday, 13 October 1307 when the Roman Catholic Church closed them down, accusing their leaders of heresy and strange religious beliefs.

During the era of the Crusades the Templars possessed a huge multi-national empire, and until their demise they were arguably the most powerful organization on Earth. According to popular theory, the Templars went underground and formed the secret society of the Freemasons to preserve their secret tradition.

There is evidence that the Templars were the carriers of old mystical knowlegde related to the Gnostics. This was perhaps the real reason why they were destroyed by the Roman Church who did not like the Gnostic (Kadištu) Believe System.

The Knight Templar ran probably the best known early prototype of a central banking system, as their promises to pay were widely regarded, and many regard their activities as having laid the basis for the modern banking system. By 1200 they were in effect bankers to the kings of England and France. They became so powerful that they had to be distroyed.

The oldest central bank in the world is the Riksbank in Sweden, which was opened in 1668 with help from Dutch businessmen. This was followed in 1694 by the Bank of England at the request of the government to help pay for a war.

The US Federal Reserve (FED) was created by the US Congress through the passing of the Glass Owen-Bill, signed by President Woodrow Wilson on December 23, 1913.

The history of the FED reads like a detective story. Eustace Mullins spend almost his whole life to find out what is really happening behind the closed doors of the FED. His book was never published. That’s why it is now available for free on the Internet. It shows how the Financial Elite of the US manipulated the citizens and representatives of the US to accept the Glass Owen-Bill. My advice: Read it!

The most important fact you have to know is that the FED is not an independent bank controlled by government. It is controlled by the big banks of the US and behind the big banks of the US is a powerful elite. This Elite created and sustained the Great Depression. It also supported the Klu Klux Clan and the Fascists regimes of Germany and Italy. The most important power behind them was the House of Rotchild situated in London. The old Financial Elite never lost its power.

If you search on the Internet you will find that Free Masons, The House of Rotchild and the Knight Templar are combined into a huge conspiracy theory that even goes back in history to the Annunaki of Sumer (The Serpents). I don’t think the Knight Templar and the Free Masons are part of this conspiracy.

I do believe the conspiracy (if it exists) has something to do with the Annunaki and their Ancestors. The Annunaki were experts in deceiving people and keeping control over them. They “hated” the Female Power and changed many myths that showed that this Power could create a Paradise if we wanted it. Their very long term plan was to obtain control over the World. It looks like they are succeeding. There all kind of conspiracy theories that are trying to prove that important “blood-lines” of the Elite are related to the Annunaki.

According to many Myths (Hopi, Gnostics) the “good ones”, the Life-Designers, the Kadištut, that are trying to help mankind are related to the Pleiades. The Pleiadians don’t want to interfere because interference in another civilization is forbidden. We have to ask them for help.

The theory of Historical Cycles of Inflation and Deflation is a Very Old Theory. It was known by the Old Chinese Emperors and the Egyptian Pharaohs.

The theory behind Financial Manipulation and Financial Warfare is also a very old theory. It was practiced by all the old Kings. They knew that the control of the foundation of the Money System was crucial to stay in Power. They also knew that they could win a war by destroying the financial center of their enemies.

So everybody knows that when a small Elite in a huge Country has the power to issue money they are able to control the World. Everybody knows it is very difficult not to misuse a tremendous power (“absolute power corrupts absolutely”). That is why the Control of the Creation of Money has always been a central issue in many conflicts. In a democratic country this power is controlled by Government and Parliament.

The original members of the FED created and sustained the Great Depression. They must have been aware of the fact that they were destroying the economic system at that time. After the Great Depression they owned many companies and were in control of the media. This proves they knew how to make use of a chaotic, volatile, economic system.

The current members of the FED have created a new Great Depression. They were and are throwing trillions of dollars into the system increasing the debt of the US to a level never been seen. It will destroy the US Dollar and generate hyper-inflation. History shows that each time governments printed money in the past, the consequence was sky-high inflation.

The consequence is that the coming years, the prices of energy, food and metals will go through the roof. The US Citizen will become very poor but some people, the Elite, will get richer. The Story of the Great Depression is repeating itself and the strange thing is that everybody knew and knows why this is happening. Does that prove the Conspiracy Theories?

The new Depression will almost certainly lead to World Government. It is the only way to go they claim to stop the Depression. All the structures to enforce World Government are already in place and most of them are already in control of the Financial Elite. Does this prove the Conspiracy Theories?

The big question is if the “Chinese-connection” will accept this. If not we will see a huge conflict in the near future. It will certainly start with a “financial” attack. The Chinese could wreck the US Economy by disconnecting the Yuan from the Dollar and/or sell their $2 trillion worth of treasury bonds. You see Financial Warfare is easy and you don’t need very destructive weapons to do it. Will this lead to World War III?, also a prediction of the Conspiracy Theories.

At this moment many strange and unpredictable interventions can be seen related to the Dollar vs the Euro. The Dollar is rising steadily. The rise of the Dollar has nothing to do with the real value of the Dollar. The Dollar is related to the US Economy and this economy is going down and the backing of the Dollar is not there. The US Debt is gigantic and wil rise.

The effect of the rising dollar is positive for the export of the EU to the US. This will have a negative effect on the US Economy. The most interesting effect will come when the Dollar suddenly will move back to its original value. This will generate a new crisis within the European Banking System and of course the EU Economy. Is somebody planning a financial attack on the EU??

To prove the conspiracy we have to see who will be the owner of the most important companies and media after the crisis has stopped (if it can be stopped). If a certain group has taken over a lot of companies we will know that they have done it again. If we have finally proved the conspiracy theories we will be too late.

The proof of the pudding is always in the eating. When you read this article of the New York Times you will see that the big “take-over” has already started. The Big Banks are not using the money of the Government at all to help their poor customers. They are using it to buy other “small” banks. If you read the article in the NY Times the strategy becomes very clear. They, the Elite, want to create three colossal global financial giants—Citigroup, JP MorganChase and, of course, Paulson’s own Goldman Sachs.

Why are they creating these entities? The first reason is of course that it is much easier for a cartel to manage three parts. The second reason is that this cartel will be one of the richest and powerful kartels in the world.

What could be the aim? The aim could be to destroy their European and other Wordwide Competitors. They will be helped by their friends of the world’s largest financial credit rating agencies—Moody’s and Standard & Poors end will be able to use the biggest Economy in the World to do this. It will create a “little bit of a problem to some of the poor citizins” of the US during the time of the depression but in the long term they all will profit in some way because the Power of the US will be completely restored. The US will finally rule the World.

The big question is if the citizens of the US (and other Western Countries) will accept this to happen. If they accept it we will know for certain that the Mind Control Systems, also a part of the Big Conspiracy, have done their work properly.

 

History is repeating itself but on a much larger scale. If the Annunaki exist they will be very proud about what it is happening. Finally they will be the Masters of a devasteted World called Earth.

Do you believe in the Conspiracy Theory?

I really don’t want to believe the Theory. I don’t want to become a paranoid. Is there any Light at the end of the Tunnel? Obama? It certainly is Time for a Change! Will he succeed to stop the power of the FED? If he leaves them in power we will know for sure he is “one of them” or he is very afraid to stop them.

Why? One of the interesting stories behind the Conspiracy Theories is the fact that the Presidents (Kennedy, Lincoln) who wanted to change the center of the Financial System, The FED, were assassinated.

LINKS

A History of Money

 

Why Fiat Money has created the current Crisis

 

About the FED and the Assassination of John F. Kennedy

 

About Financial Warfare

 

 About Financial Warfare

About Mind Control

About Mind Control

 

About Mind Control

How China could wreck the US Economy

About The US Financial Conspiracy against China

How the Financial Elite created the Great Depression

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About the Union of Socialistic States of America

Friday, October 10th, 2008

Government is Nationalizing the Banking Industry. This is just what Karl Marx wanted to do after the Proletariat had taken over Society. Is the US becoming a Communistic State?

When the Economy is Going Up Investors take on Risk. They start to Lend. The longer the Economy is going Up the more risk they take the more they lend until they’ve taken too much.

Eventually, they reach a point where the cash generated by their assets no longer is sufficient to pay off the mountains of debt they took on to acquire them. When this Happens we are at the Turning Point. From that time on the Economy is going Down.

The big problem is that you have to Pay Back the money you Lend with Interest. To Pay Back you have to Earn money. When the Economy is going Down you will earn less money so why should you lend money even when the interest rates are low?

When you expect that your income will go down you will reduce your spending behavior. You will certainly not lend money and the bank will not lend you money either because the banks want to be sure that you will be able to pay back the money and the interest. The Recession will deepen.

When Everybody Expects the Economy will move into a Recession the Economy will move into a Recession.

What You Expect to Happen will Happen.

The Central Banks are not only telling to watch out for a Deep Recession. They are telling we are moving into a Worldwide Recession. This is a completely new phenomenon.

When people believe a recession is near many of them will start to build up an emergency fund. The amount of money in the emergency funds will rise but to make money you have to invest money in something. Most of the time a part of the World is going Up and the other part is going Down. You just have to move your money to the place Where The Action is.

When the whole World is going into a recession nobody knows where to invest money.

We are not only encountering a Worldwide Recession, we are also encountering a “burn-out” of the Worldwide Financial Infrastructure. When you have created an Emergency Fund and the World Economy is going down and the Banking System is failing you really don’t know where to go.

The underlying assumption of all these models is the Power of the Market. The only thing Government has to do is to create the conditions and after some time the Market will restore itself.

Government is lending money for a very low price to the Financial Companies and they will propagate this advantage to their customers. The Customers will start to spend and the Economy will rise again but the Financial Institutions don’t propagate the advantage.

They add a Risk Premium to Save Money for Customers who are not able to Pay Back the Money. When Everybody believes the Whole World is Going Down this premium will be very high.

In essence Banks are Brokers. They have been very successful in bringing two parties (the Savers and the Spenders) together. The savers and the spenders are the Customers of the Bank. They are also the Customers of Government.

Why is Government helping the Financial Institutions and not the Customers of the Financial Institutions?

They believe the Market is able to recover by itself.

Why is the Market not able to recover?

The Market is an Illusion, a Theoretical Construction. The Market consists of Humans. When Humans believe a Theory (a Believe) they will act according to this Believe. If the Market will recover they will Wait until the Market will recover. If everybody Waits nobody Acts. Not-Acting leads to a Recession.

What is wrong with Economic Theory?

The Scientists believe Humans are Rational Beings but Humans are Emotional Beings. Most Humans are doing what other Humans are doing. When they don’t know what to do they just wait until the Markey recovers. The Fear of Losing drives Human Behavior. When this Fear Takes over Control Humans Act without Thinking. They Sell Everything they have to avoid a Higher Loss.

In essence the Government is confirming all the time that we are heading to a Huge Crisis. When we go on the way we are going the Crisis will be the Most Spectular Crisis the World has Ever Seen. The World Economy will come to a complete standstill.

Why is Government not Acting as a Broker?

This could be a simple solution. Just put Your Money where the Action is and the Action in Society is performed by Entrepreneurs. Entrepeneurs are very different from Investors. Investors invest their money in Entrepeneurs. Entrepeneurs Act. They put Ideas into Practice.

Entrepeneurs are Practical people. They know that You have to Earn Money to Invest Money. Their big problem is the Cash Flow. Their Customers have to pay their bills. When Customers don’t pay their Bills they need the Support of a Bank. When Entrepeneurs want to lend money to balance their cash-flows lend money to Entrepeneurs directly.

When Customers want to lend money to pay their Bills lend them the money they really need. You don’t need Banks to do this.

Every Economic Scientist is agreeing on point. Small businesses are the Pillar of the Economy.

There are many reasons why Small Businesses are the Motor of the Economy. The owners are responsible for their own actions. They get broke when their Business Fails. In Big Business You are able to spend or waist money without any consequence. You even get money when you fail. When you own a Small Business you are unable to create big Staff Departments. Big Staff Departments waist money and play Political Games. Small Businesses are the most effective and efficient Economic Instruments. They are also the Source of Innovation.

Why is Government not Supporting Small Businesses?

Government always supported Small Businesses until the Big Malls and the Big Companies were created. The Big Companies are paying a Lot of Money to influence the Politicians. Politicians were able to make big money when they started to do what the Lobbyist were telling them to do. It is time we get rid of Politicians who only want to make big money. To be a Politician is an Honor. You are serving the Whole and not Yourself.

Is US Government doing what Karl Marx wanted to do?

This is the most interesting point. According to Karl Marx, the first action after the take over of the Proletariat would be to Nationalize Banks. There are more parallels with the USSR. The USSR Controlled and Manipulated the Media, Gathered a Lot of Data about his Citizens, Spend a lot of money to Build and Maintain an Army, Occupied many Countries, Created an Elite (The Communist Party) and controlled the State with a huge Almighty Secret Service.

Are we finally moving to the Union of Socialistic States of America (the USSA)? or even worse to World Government.

LINKS

The vision of Karl Marx

About the Broker State and Small Business

Why I have Decided to Leave ABN AMRO

Monday, September 29th, 2008

I am a customer of ABN AMRO for more than 40 years. Last Friday I received a letter from ABN AMRO. They told me that the local branch office of ABN AMRO will be closed and integrated into a local branch office of Fortis.

 One day later negotiations started to save Fortis from bankruptcy. Today I read that ABN AMRO has to be sold to another bank. This will not solve the problem at all. It will speed up the Process of Desintegration of the Banking Industry that has started ten years ago.

 Just one year ago I wrote three blogs about the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO. Based on my own experience with the Merger of ABN and AMRO I predicted a possible failure of this merger. I predicted a possible failure because I did not believe the Technical Infrastructure and the Culture of both banks could be easily matched. I was Right. The Credit Crunch was the Cause of the Downfall but the Culture and the IT-Systems were the real reason. The Aim of Management was to make Big Deals (to get Big Bonusses) and the Systems were unable to provide the Right Data.

I have been working in the Money Market for a long time. In my opinion the biggest problem in the Banking Industry is the relationship between the Accountable, Bookkeeping, Systems and the Activities of Dealers. A small part of the Dealers are and were taking Enormous Risks by creating very complicated financial constructions (Derivatives). The Auditors (and the Management) of Banks have lost Oversight a very long time ago. This problem increases in severity when banks are merged.

Every time when a New Technology is implemented the Quality of the ICT-systems deteriorates. This has happened so many times that nobody really understands what the IT-Systems are really doing. Every time when a merger is accomplished the financial data of a bank (or other company) deteriorate. Two of more deteriorated systems are connected creating a bigger mess. Every time when a merger is accomplished the people who have an understanding of the ICT-systems know less about the Systems.

When a Merger takes place the motivated and skillful employees leave the “sinking ship”. The people that remain become “apathic”. They perform their duty in a “nine to five”-mode. Innovation stops. External advisory companies (or worse) outside outsourcing companies take over the maintenance and the development of the software. The quality of the software deteriorates again. The problem increases when packages or software layers are implemented. This happened in every bank around the world.

When I worked with ABN AMRO the biggest mess in IT was always created in the US. The main reason was the “opportunistic” attitude of the Management or the entrepeneurs attitude of the Management. They experimented with everything they could find but never finished anything. The US Financial System was far behind the Dutch Financial System in terms of Products and Supervision. Everybody believed the US was the most innovative in everything but they were certainly not the most advanced in Banking and IT.

 ABN AMRO was one of the bad performers in the Consumer Banking Industry in the Netherlands. The personnel of the Bank were not motivated for a long time. The main reason was the Management. Everything was decided at the top in big Staff Departments. The Branches were forced to implement what they had designed.

 The Management of the Bank loved to do Big Deals with Big Companies. ABN and AMRO were Deal-Making companies and were forced to move into the Consumer Market when the employees of all the companies in the Netherlands were forced to open bank-accounts. The Customer was never priority number one.

The decision structure of the Bank was highly complex and changed all the time. Employees at the branches were not allowed to take initiative. When they had taken initiative it took a long time before the decision was made. Most of the time the answer was negative.

The forced merger with Fortis decreased the motivation of the employees. It increased the complexity of the IT-Systems and the decision structure.

Fortis needed money and many parts were sold to other banks. Every time the Organization and the ICT-systems of the bank had to be divided in many parts. Before this process was even settled a new split was announced. This process was repeated until today.

The Consumer Banking Division of ABN AMRO, the “beautiful pearl” Fortis was after, was carefully protected. The integration of this part with Fortis proceeded. Many people moved to Brussels to create and implement a plan. Many outside advisors earned a lot of money again. Nobody had any oversight. A few weeks ago somebody finally decided to merge the branch-offices. They created new organization structures, appointed new managers, talked with the employees and send an announcement to their customers. This announcement was received last Friday! Two days later all the projects have been stopped and the employees of Fortis are leaving ABN AMRO. Nobody knows what to do!

The financial people were constantly trying to understand what the Risks were. Everytime a new problem arose and the Board had to take action. The message to the outside world changed all the time and the investors lost their faith in Fortis. The End of the (Credit) Line was reached last Friday!

A few days ago somebody decided ABN AMRO had to be sold to another bank to create enough cash to pay the current debts. The process of integration has to be reversed and a new process of integration has to be started with another Bank.You don’t have to be an expert to understand what will happen. The end of this process will be Total Chaos.

I am not afraid I will lose my Savings. The Government will take care.

I am not afraid to lose my shares. I have sold them a long time ago.

I am not afraid the bookkeeping systems of the Bank will finally break down and ABN AMRO will deny I am a Customer or present completely different data about my savings-account.

I am sure many things will go wrong. During my time as a customer of ABN AMRO the amount of mistakes that were made increased. Most of the mistakes were small but some of them really cost me a lot of time and money.

I am afraid  nobody will be able to help me when things go wrong. I just want a little bit of Service. Nothing More. I have decided to leave ABN AMRO. I am moving to RABO-bank.

I hope they will not buy ABN AMRO or merge with another bank. If this happens I have to find another Bank but I really don’t know where to go. At that time I probably have to buy Gold or another Object that keeps its value a long time ago. I really don’t know what will be valuable in the future.

Perhaps I have to start a farm and grow my own food at a place that will not be affected by the rising of the sea-level or big tornado’s or big earthquakes or heavy rain or intense drought or intense cold when the Ice-Age starts.

LINKS

 About the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO (Culture)

About the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO (Software)

About the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO (The Bank of the Heart)

About the Crisis in IT (About Software Layers)

About the Crisis in IT (About Outsourcing)

 About the Crisis in IT (About ERP Packages)

About the Crisis in the Banking Industry (Avalanches)

About the Crisis in the Banking Industry (Fraud)

 

 

 

 

 

 

What is Happening in the Financial System

Friday, September 19th, 2008

The current Foundation of the World Financial System, the US Economy based on the Dollar, is in a Fatal Crisis. The Solution to the Current Crisis, Bailing Out, will finally Speed Up the Crisis. The real problem is moved to the Near Future, to another Level of Society (MiddleClass, the Poor) and to another part of the World. In the End it will fireback on the US itself and deepen the Recession that is already taking place.

Money represents a Value of Something. For a very long time money was based on the value of Gold. This foundation failed. The failure of the Gold Based Money system created the Great Depression and finally the Second World War. At this moment the Financial System is without any Foundation.

To prevent a Third World War the Bretton Woods Agreement was created in 1947. The foundation of the International Money System was based on the Dollar. In 1971 the US broke up the Agreement because it was unable to stabilize the International System. At that time the US was spending too much money to fight the war in Vietnam. It became a Debtor and remained a Debtor until today.

From that Time on the International Money System is Floating but the Foundation, the Dollar, is still used. The Euro is an alternative but it is almost impossible to move to the Euro without destroying the US Economy and the World Economy. Europe, China and even Russia are Forced to help the Biggest Debtor in the World to avoid the destruction of their own Financial System. In the mean time the Biggest Debtor in the World keeps on Spending. It is even Increasing its Spending Behavior.

Many people believe that the reason behind the Financial Crisis is the Credit Crunch. They believe mortgages are the cause of everything but the reason is much more complicated. The main reason are financial derivatives.

Derivatives are very complicated ways to gamble with money. They are so complicated that almost nobody is able to calculate the value of these financial instruments. They are so complicated that almost nobody is able to keep the books. The controllers of the banks lost the control a very long time ago.

 

Derivatives are the playingfield of dealers and the dealers are able to confuse almost everybody when they want to play their game. The effect of playing dealers has shown itself in many cases like the falldown of Barings. The Derivatives have transformed The Banking Industry into a Casino.

The US Government and its Allies are trying to avoid a new Great Depression by bailing out or protecting every US Bank, Insurance Company and other Company (Farmers, Chrysler, Boeing, Ford, ..) that is unable to pay its debts. The US Government is moving the huge and uncertain debt from the Market to the Government hoping the Market will Restore itself. They believe the Market is going Up and Down. Someday they will be able to Sell the current Debt with a Profit back to the Market.

The strange thing is that other countries are helping the US to protect their vital companies from a certain disaster. The US, the Protector of the Free Market, is protecting its Own market and the only reason why others are helping the US is to avoid a certain disaster on the level of the World. Strangely enough they are disturbing their own market to avoid the destruction of the market of their biggest competitor.

In the background investors, Countries and Companies are slowly moving out of the US Economy. The are investing in Europa (Warren Buffett) or are creating their own financial market and currency (China, Russia, India).Nobody believes the US will recover but they have to prevent a total meltdown.

China is even taking over control of the US Economy. With their enormouss funds they will be alble to “blackmail” the US. They are already doing this. The Chinese are in contrary to the US fighting the war with the Wapens of their Opponent. They know how to win without fighting.

What many peopl don’t realize is that the long term Economic Cycle (The Kondratiev) is going Down for about 26 years. We have entered a State of Compression in 2000. The Expansion of the World Economy during the last 26 years has stopped. We are just in the beginning of the Phase of Compression.

During the phase of compression the Baby Boomers will stop working. They have invested a lot of money to buy a pension. During the compression their pensions will evaporate. During the phase of compression many people will get old and ill. The Social System will be without any money to help them. Many people will move into a very angry state when they realize what really has happened.

During the Downfall The Debts will increase tremendously. The move from the Market to the Government (and the Tax Payer) is a temporary solution. Someday the Debts have to be repayed and the only thing US Govenment can do is to accept the fact that the US and the strongly related Western Economy will enter a state of Recession.

The Economic Activity will go Down but Social Activities will Move Up. When you are losing money somebody (Your Friends, Your Family, Your Community) has to help you.

What many people also don’t realize is that the very long time cycles are supporting the DownFall of the Economic System. The very long time cycles and especially the Cycle of the Precession is Jumping to a new Level. It is jumping to a higher level of Consciousness.

The current instability of the World System is not only visible in the Financial System. It shows itself in every System of the World. It shows itself in the Psychological System, the Cultural System, The Religiouss System, the Political System, the Ecological System, the Weather System and the Planetary System.

These Systems are highly interconnected. A Disaster in one of the Systems has an impact on all of the other Systems. When the Financial System is fixed, a Political Conflict (Russia) starts and the Financial System is unbalanced. When the Political System is stabilized a huge Earthquake or a giant Tornado will move the total System into unbalance. This will go on and on until everybody realizes that we are living in a Highly Interconnected Reality.

The only thing we can do is to act on the Level of Earth and Face Reality. We have to realize that all the Isolated Systems are One and the only thing we can do is to find Balance on Every Level.

We could start to Find Balance on the Level of the Human.

We could start to Reduce the Power of the Ego, Desire, by reducing our Needs.

We could start to Reduce the Power of our Expectation, our Thinking, and start to Trust the Other.

We could start to Empower our Imagination, Spirit, and Imagine a Shared Future.

We could start to Empower our Soul, Empathy, and start to Take Care of Others.

We could start to use our Consciousness and become Aware of what is really Happening.

Many people believe the current crisis will be a Fatal Crisis, a (Financial) Apocalyps. I don’t believe this will be the case.

Imagine a world were you are not Working all the time. Imagine a Life without Stress.

Imagine a World where You don’t have to Play Political Games to Survive.

Imagine a world where You could enjoy Nature.

Imagine a World were You are able to Help without Being Payd.

Imagine a World were you are able to Create when You want to do this. Imagine a World without War and Violence. The only thing You have to do is Leave a Little Bit of Your Current Luxury behind.

If this happens the Downfall of the Bad Buck would be replaced by a tremendous Rise of Good Luck.

LINKS

How the Great Depression was created

About Derivatives, Accountants, Greed and other terrible problems in the Banking Industry