Posts Tagged ‘Dewey’

Why a Depression Takes Thirteen Years

Wednesday, November 26th, 2008

The start and the end of the current depression was predicted a very long time (1922) ago by Nikolai Kondratiev. The Kondratiev Cycle is an economic cycle which lasts between 50 to 60 years.

Kondratiev predicted that the current Depression will start in 2000 and end around 13 years later. Kondratiev used the Seasons to name the phases of his Cycle. We are now in the phase of the Kondratiev Winter.

Spring is marked by economic expansion. Savings are at fairly high levels, and interest rates are low. Stocks and real estate are the most successful investments.

Summer is marked by high inflation, high interest rates and by volatility. Commodities, gold, and real estate do well during the summer.

Autumn is the happiest phase of the Cycle. This phase started about 1982 and ended around 2000. During Autumn paper financial investments like stocks and bonds always do best. It is characterized by speculative bubbles or manias in stocks, bonds, real estate, and collectibles. On the other hand, gold, silver, and commodities collapse. Unfortunately, the Autumn is also marked by a serious decrease in savings, and a dangerous and reckless increase in debt. The imbalances build up to the point where they cannot continue. That’s where we are now.

When Winter arrives the insane excesses of the Autumn are purged and cleansed. The ultimate result is a deflationary recession or depression. Debt is repudiated. There is usually a banking crisis. Bankruptcies and foreclosures increase, as does social discontent. During the Kondratiev Winter, gold and cash are the best investments.

It is very strange that almost nobody believes the Kondratiev Cycle is a tool to predict the Economy. If people would have believed the Cycle it would be very simple to move through the Depression. In the UP-state you have to save money to sustain the DOWN-state. When you don’t do this the DOWN-state will bring you in to big trouble. At this moment the World has used almost all his resources. We have saved almost nothing to move through the deep recession.

In 1931 the US Department of Commerce assigned Edward Dewey the task of discovering the cause and underlying dynamics of the Great Depression. The US Government created a special institute the Foundation for the Study of Economic Cycles. The US Government never took the research of the Institute for granted or used it for another purpose (Financial Warfare?).

The most interesting observation of Dewey is that Cycles restore themselves all the time and Cycles are influenced by other Cycles. They are entrained. We are not talking about a single isolated Economic cycle. The Universe is an Integrated Harmonic System. The Universe is a Wave that generates Waves that generates Waves. At this moment Physicists believe this is the case (String Theory, Plasma Theory).

To me it is unbelievable that Economists like Milton Friedman called the ongoing statistical research of Dewey and many related Cycle theorists “not scientific“. To me it is also unbelievable that almost nobody takes even a look at the enormous amount of data that is gathered. I believe ignoring the scientific facts of the Cycles is not only stupid but also a crime. It is a crime because by constantly ignoring and pushing the cycles the whole harmonic system (including your Body, the Weather, Society, Earth) gets out of balance.

The Cycle of Kondratiev is a “long-term” cycle but there are cycles with a much longer periodicity (The Precession). The “short-term” cycles of the Kondratiev Ride The Wave of the Very long term cycles. If a very long term cycle moves down the Kondratiev also moves down much deeper and much faster.

This is happening and we are totally not prepared to cope with the new phases of the “dominant” long term cycles. The Harmonic System is preparing to Jump to a new State of Balance. This State has been given many names like Time Wave Zero (Terrence McKenna) and Point Omega (Teilhard de Chardin).

In the old age the Scientists who studied the cycles were called Astrologers. They have gathered a lot of data about the Cycles. Just like Milton Friedman we think Astrology is not scientific but many people just ignore that we are now equipped with much better tools and theories to explain what is happening. The old Astrologers did a spectacular job without computers, telescopes and a highly developed mathematics.

If you read the Predictions of the Old Astrologers like The Maya and The Magi you have to understand that they wrote in the language and the metaphors of their time but their message is the same message McKenna and other Cycle-Theorist want to tell.

LINKS

About the Kondratiev Wave

The Case for Cycles, R.Dewey

About the Cycle of the Climate

About the Cycle of History

About  the Cycle of the Seasons

About the Very Long Cycle Theory of Terrence McKenna

About the Transformation Phase of the Cycle

Prepare Yourself for a Spectaculair Change

Tuesday, October 16th, 2007

About A year ago I was writing a strategy for a company. Suddenly I got the idea I was writing something I had already written a long time ago. I got the feeling that “History was repeating itself”.

I started to investigate and suddenly I found a Pattern. The pattern I found was the Kondratiev Cycle.

Behind the Kondratiev Cycle another pattern appeared. Kondratiev related the cycle already to the Seasons. The Seasons where at time also a subject I was investigating.

I was very interested in Acupuncture and Chinese Philosophy. I already found a mapping of the World Views to the Seasons and the theory of narratives of Bahktin. With ease I could translated the themes of the Kondratiev Cycle to Major Narratives. I made a picture and started to calibrate. The dates I found where significant.

Another insight appeared when I started to have a look at the website of The Cycles Research Institute. This Institute has gathered a immense amount of data about cycles.

The most interesting document was a document of the Founder of the Institute (Dewey) where he tried to explain strange relationships between cycles that were “independent”. What he found was something he called Harmonics. Harmonics are created when waves are entangeld. They can be compared to overtones in Music.

The last and most dramatic insight came from Ray Tomes. He found a pattern behind the pattern of the harmonics Dewey discovered. This is his main conclusion “The Universe consists of a standing wave which develops harmonically related standing waves and each of these does the same“.

If you are interested in Religion you will you notice that he is writing a very old “mystical” statement. He is writing about what people in India call The Svara.

The proper translation of the word Svara is the current of life-wave. It is that wavy motion which is the cause of the evolution of cosmic undifferentiated matter into the differentiated universe, and the involution of this into the primary state of non-differentiation, and so on, inand out, for ever and ever. The Svara is the manifestation of the impression on matter of that power which in man is known to us as the power which knows itself“.

The pattern behind “History Repeating itself” was the Current of Life Wave.

What I also found out is that the numbers behind the pattern were related to multiples of 5. I started to calculate “Important dates” and “Major Overtones (Harmonics)” and went back as far as 5000 BC. The pattern fitted. I was completely overwhelmed by the regularity of the clocks and the many levels that were in Motion. The Universe was playing Music, The Music of the Spheres.

The last thing I did was to use the pattern and move forwards in Time. I found a remarkable date (2012). It was the date where many many cycles of history would harmonize (A major conjunction) and “start to swing back“. At that time I did not know about the predictions of the Maya’s and others. I learnt about that a year later.

I can tell you one thing.

Prepare yourself for a very spectaculair time ahead.

Nothing will stay the same.