Posts Tagged ‘kondratiev’

What is Happening in the Financial System

Friday, September 19th, 2008

The current Foundation of the World Financial System, the US Economy based on the Dollar, is in a Fatal Crisis. The Solution to the Current Crisis, Bailing Out, will finally Speed Up the Crisis. The real problem is moved to the Near Future, to another Level of Society (MiddleClass, the Poor) and to another part of the World. In the End it will fireback on the US itself and deepen the Recession that is already taking place.

Money represents a Value of Something. For a very long time money was based on the value of Gold. This foundation failed. The failure of the Gold Based Money system created the Great Depression and finally the Second World War. At this moment the Financial System is without any Foundation.

To prevent a Third World War the Bretton Woods Agreement was created in 1947. The foundation of the International Money System was based on the Dollar. In 1971 the US broke up the Agreement because it was unable to stabilize the International System. At that time the US was spending too much money to fight the war in Vietnam. It became a Debtor and remained a Debtor until today.

From that Time on the International Money System is Floating but the Foundation, the Dollar, is still used. The Euro is an alternative but it is almost impossible to move to the Euro without destroying the US Economy and the World Economy. Europe, China and even Russia are Forced to help the Biggest Debtor in the World to avoid the destruction of their own Financial System. In the mean time the Biggest Debtor in the World keeps on Spending. It is even Increasing its Spending Behavior.

Many people believe that the reason behind the Financial Crisis is the Credit Crunch. They believe mortgages are the cause of everything but the reason is much more complicated. The main reason are financial derivatives.

Derivatives are very complicated ways to gamble with money. They are so complicated that almost nobody is able to calculate the value of these financial instruments. They are so complicated that almost nobody is able to keep the books. The controllers of the banks lost the control a very long time ago.

 

Derivatives are the playingfield of dealers and the dealers are able to confuse almost everybody when they want to play their game. The effect of playing dealers has shown itself in many cases like the falldown of Barings. The Derivatives have transformed The Banking Industry into a Casino.

The US Government and its Allies are trying to avoid a new Great Depression by bailing out or protecting every US Bank, Insurance Company and other Company (Farmers, Chrysler, Boeing, Ford, ..) that is unable to pay its debts. The US Government is moving the huge and uncertain debt from the Market to the Government hoping the Market will Restore itself. They believe the Market is going Up and Down. Someday they will be able to Sell the current Debt with a Profit back to the Market.

The strange thing is that other countries are helping the US to protect their vital companies from a certain disaster. The US, the Protector of the Free Market, is protecting its Own market and the only reason why others are helping the US is to avoid a certain disaster on the level of the World. Strangely enough they are disturbing their own market to avoid the destruction of the market of their biggest competitor.

In the background investors, Countries and Companies are slowly moving out of the US Economy. The are investing in Europa (Warren Buffett) or are creating their own financial market and currency (China, Russia, India).Nobody believes the US will recover but they have to prevent a total meltdown.

China is even taking over control of the US Economy. With their enormouss funds they will be alble to “blackmail” the US. They are already doing this. The Chinese are in contrary to the US fighting the war with the Wapens of their Opponent. They know how to win without fighting.

What many peopl don’t realize is that the long term Economic Cycle (The Kondratiev) is going Down for about 26 years. We have entered a State of Compression in 2000. The Expansion of the World Economy during the last 26 years has stopped. We are just in the beginning of the Phase of Compression.

During the phase of compression the Baby Boomers will stop working. They have invested a lot of money to buy a pension. During the compression their pensions will evaporate. During the phase of compression many people will get old and ill. The Social System will be without any money to help them. Many people will move into a very angry state when they realize what really has happened.

During the Downfall The Debts will increase tremendously. The move from the Market to the Government (and the Tax Payer) is a temporary solution. Someday the Debts have to be repayed and the only thing US Govenment can do is to accept the fact that the US and the strongly related Western Economy will enter a state of Recession.

The Economic Activity will go Down but Social Activities will Move Up. When you are losing money somebody (Your Friends, Your Family, Your Community) has to help you.

What many people also don’t realize is that the very long time cycles are supporting the DownFall of the Economic System. The very long time cycles and especially the Cycle of the Precession is Jumping to a new Level. It is jumping to a higher level of Consciousness.

The current instability of the World System is not only visible in the Financial System. It shows itself in every System of the World. It shows itself in the Psychological System, the Cultural System, The Religiouss System, the Political System, the Ecological System, the Weather System and the Planetary System.

These Systems are highly interconnected. A Disaster in one of the Systems has an impact on all of the other Systems. When the Financial System is fixed, a Political Conflict (Russia) starts and the Financial System is unbalanced. When the Political System is stabilized a huge Earthquake or a giant Tornado will move the total System into unbalance. This will go on and on until everybody realizes that we are living in a Highly Interconnected Reality.

The only thing we can do is to act on the Level of Earth and Face Reality. We have to realize that all the Isolated Systems are One and the only thing we can do is to find Balance on Every Level.

We could start to Find Balance on the Level of the Human.

We could start to Reduce the Power of the Ego, Desire, by reducing our Needs.

We could start to Reduce the Power of our Expectation, our Thinking, and start to Trust the Other.

We could start to Empower our Imagination, Spirit, and Imagine a Shared Future.

We could start to Empower our Soul, Empathy, and start to Take Care of Others.

We could start to use our Consciousness and become Aware of what is really Happening.

Many people believe the current crisis will be a Fatal Crisis, a (Financial) Apocalyps. I don’t believe this will be the case.

Imagine a world were you are not Working all the time. Imagine a Life without Stress.

Imagine a World where You don’t have to Play Political Games to Survive.

Imagine a world where You could enjoy Nature.

Imagine a World were You are able to Help without Being Payd.

Imagine a World were you are able to Create when You want to do this. Imagine a World without War and Violence. The only thing You have to do is Leave a Little Bit of Your Current Luxury behind.

If this happens the Downfall of the Bad Buck would be replaced by a tremendous Rise of Good Luck.

LINKS

How the Great Depression was created

About Derivatives, Accountants, Greed and other terrible problems in the Banking Industry

 

 

Prepare Yourself for a Spectaculair Change

Tuesday, October 16th, 2007

About A year ago I was writing a strategy for a company. Suddenly I got the idea I was writing something I had already written a long time ago. I got the feeling that “History was repeating itself”.

I started to investigate and suddenly I found a Pattern. The pattern I found was the Kondratiev Cycle.

Behind the Kondratiev Cycle another pattern appeared. Kondratiev related the cycle already to the Seasons. The Seasons where at time also a subject I was investigating.

I was very interested in Acupuncture and Chinese Philosophy. I already found a mapping of the World Views to the Seasons and the theory of narratives of Bahktin. With ease I could translated the themes of the Kondratiev Cycle to Major Narratives. I made a picture and started to calibrate. The dates I found where significant.

Another insight appeared when I started to have a look at the website of The Cycles Research Institute. This Institute has gathered a immense amount of data about cycles.

The most interesting document was a document of the Founder of the Institute (Dewey) where he tried to explain strange relationships between cycles that were “independent”. What he found was something he called Harmonics. Harmonics are created when waves are entangeld. They can be compared to overtones in Music.

The last and most dramatic insight came from Ray Tomes. He found a pattern behind the pattern of the harmonics Dewey discovered. This is his main conclusion “The Universe consists of a standing wave which develops harmonically related standing waves and each of these does the same“.

If you are interested in Religion you will you notice that he is writing a very old “mystical” statement. He is writing about what people in India call The Svara.

The proper translation of the word Svara is the current of life-wave. It is that wavy motion which is the cause of the evolution of cosmic undifferentiated matter into the differentiated universe, and the involution of this into the primary state of non-differentiation, and so on, inand out, for ever and ever. The Svara is the manifestation of the impression on matter of that power which in man is known to us as the power which knows itself“.

The pattern behind “History Repeating itself” was the Current of Life Wave.

What I also found out is that the numbers behind the pattern were related to multiples of 5. I started to calculate “Important dates” and “Major Overtones (Harmonics)” and went back as far as 5000 BC. The pattern fitted. I was completely overwhelmed by the regularity of the clocks and the many levels that were in Motion. The Universe was playing Music, The Music of the Spheres.

The last thing I did was to use the pattern and move forwards in Time. I found a remarkable date (2012). It was the date where many many cycles of history would harmonize (A major conjunction) and “start to swing back“. At that time I did not know about the predictions of the Maya’s and others. I learnt about that a year later.

I can tell you one thing.

Prepare yourself for a very spectaculair time ahead.

Nothing will stay the same.

Things you Cannot Buy

Wednesday, July 25th, 2007

To define a long term strategy, we have to predict the future. To predict the future we have to understand the past. The longer we look back, the better we can look forward.

Everything is determinated by cycles. A well know cycle is the Kondratiev. This is the cycle of Innovation. Its cycles-time is about 53 years.

Fifty years ago a new innovation in computing was emerging, the IBM 360. The 360, the All Purpose Computer, became a standard in computing.

A hundred years ago the big factories of Ford and Taylor were dominating the world. It is not difficult to see that the IBM 360 was the next step in the ideal of Taylor to produce a fully mechanized production-facility.

Funny enough the most important innovation of our time, The Internet, can be seen as an IBM 360 where the connectors between the processors (now called servers) are far away.

The capacity of the current network, transporting the standardized (XML-)messages from server to server is so enormous that is it almost possible to work real-time.

Does this mean that the next step of Innovation will be one central operating system that is controlling the Internet?

To find out what will happen we have to look at a new long term cycle, the cycle of Culture. Its periodicity is about 250 years. 250 years ago we are in the time of the French Revolution.

The bourgeoisie (the new entrepreneurs) hated the decadent Kings and the people took over the Power (Liberté, Égalité, and Fraternité). In the end the Centralized State, its centralized institutions, and finally the Centralized Companies were created. At this moment we are in a comparable situation.

The Central State en the big companies are, just like the Kings in the 18th Century, loosing their power. The People, now called customers, are looking for an alternative.

The big Companies are showing ‘decadent” behavior. They are wasting valuable resources ((tax) money) and are delivering a low quality of service. The customers (and the citizens) are highly dissatisfied. If nothing is done the possibility of a new Revolution is not zero.

In software, we see the rising of the Open-Source Movement. It is a rebellion against the power of the big software companies (especially Microsoft). We are in a time of reconstruction and it will take many years before the new stable infrastructure will arise (called Web 2.0).

Of course Google will be a certain winner. It will be one of the major worldwide Powers of IT for a long time. They are centralizing the Internet.

If we look for the short term we can use the Juglar cycle (10 years). This cycle predicts a movement from Individuality (I do it Myself) to the Collective (Let’s do it together). 

Collaboration will be a major issue the next ten years. Google is utilizing this trend by buying many companies that are offering “sharing services”.

The interesting question is Will Google win or will the Open Source Movement win?

My intuition tells it will be the last one. The Open Source Movement is much more flexible in their response. Google is rich and will become richer. The Open Source Movement is not based on money but on enthusiasm (Spirit) and E-motivation (Soul) and a very important point Craftsmanship. These are things you cannot buy.