Posts Tagged ‘reptile brain’

About Behavioral Economics: Why Hawks Always Win and Doves Always Lose

Friday, May 29th, 2009

horusThe belief in Rational Decision Making has been the focus of Economic Theory for a very long time.

Although everybody knew that Humans are Highly Impulsive and Emotional, Economists based their theoretical models of the Market on a Rational Human Being who is always able to Calculate the best Alternative possible. This Theory is wrong. The Economic Behavior is controlled by the Emotions.

The current economic crisis shows that the old Rational Theory is not applicable and the attention for alternative theories of Economic Behavior is rising. These theories are called Behavioral Economics.

An important paper in the development of behavioral economics was written by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979 (Prospect Theory, Analysis of Decision Under Risk). Kahneman was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his research in Prospect Theory.

According to Prospect Theory, Humans attach much greater weight to future losses than to future gains related to their personal reference point. When you expect a certain gain in the future and this gain is lower than you expect the gain is experienced as a loss.

Kahmeman and Tversky became the experts on Cognitive Bias. A Bias is a “not-rational” mostly fast response to a stressful situation. In this case the Human System uses old structures (The Reptile Brain) that were created a very long time ago when the human lived in a completely different environment. The Reptile Brain uses many shortcuts to save time.

Social and cognitive psychologists have identified a number of predictable errors in the ways that humans judge situations and evaluate risks. Biases have been documented both in the laboratory and in the real world. For example, people are prone to exaggerating their strengths: About 80 percent of us believe that our driving skills are better than average.

In 2009 Kahneman and Renshon wrote a paper called Hawkish Biases. It is an attempt to unite the many Cognitive Biases into one Model. The model shows that Humans are highly Confused Predators (Hawks).

As a Predator they protect their Territory with every means possible. They are Confused because they are capable to Observe and Reason about their own behavior and the behavior of others.

Humans need the “Illusion of Control” to sustain their own Identity. Every time something happens they are looking for reasons to believe that they are the Primary Actor in their own context. They don’t want to believe that Other Human Beings are also Active Agents.

If they would believe this was the case their “Unrealistic Optimism” could change into “Realistic Pessimism”. Unrealistic Optimism makes managers, politicians and generals receptive to advisors who offer highly favorable estimates of the outcomes. Such a predisposition, often shared by leaders on both sides of a conflict, is likely to produce a disaster.

When a Human is Depressed by Realism he Loses his Face and moves down in the Picking Order of the Territory.

Humans believe that every other Human is always capable to see their Weaknesses (“the Illusion of Transparency“) just like they are convinced that the intentions of others are always clear to them (“the Fundamental Attribution Error“). To hide their Weaknesses they have to wear a Mask and Play the Strong Leader of the Pack. They have to Keep Up their Appearances.

doveHumans base their theory of the other on inferences about historical behavior and completely forget Situational aspects. When a context is hostile the other must be hostile too. When others behave differently from their expectations they suddenly introduce situational factors to sustain their believe system.

Humans need to sustain their believe-system because this system is the foundation of their personality. Their view on the World has to stay constant because when it changes too fast they will get into big psychological problems. When people get older their believe-system becomes very rigid.

Humans value their own possessions much higher as the possessions of others (“The Endowment Effect”). They even consider possible, imaginary, possessions as real possessions if they are convinced there is an easy way to get them.

If they lose a real or imaginary possession they take tremendous risks to get their possessions back (“Risk Seeking in Losses“). People in general don’t like cutting their losses. They’re willing to gamble on in the hope of recovering them.

Humans simply believe that a Hawk always wins the Game and a Dove always loses. What Humans (want to) forget is that they are living in a group and their In-Group and the many Out-Groups contains many Hawks. They need the confidence that they are “the best” to Survive.

The world of the Human Hawk is a world of Competition (Winner takes all) and therefore highly Stressful. The Sad Thing is that the many faces of Stress are the Major Cause of the Cognitive Bias. When Humans relax and reflect they are much more capable to solve a complicated conflict.

The competitive Hawks always fall in the trap of the Prisoners Dilemma and don’t realize that Cooperation, the Win-Win is the only Certain Way to Leave the Prison.

At this moment another Behavioral Economist, Robert Shiller, is getting a lot of attention. Together with the Economic Nobel Prize Winner George Akerlof he wrote the book “Animal Spirits“.

In the book they identify five distinct elements that blur the theory of the Rational Economy. These elements or “animal spirits” are called: confidence, fairness, corruption; money illusion and the reliance on “stories”of others.

The first three have a lot to do with the “hawk“-theory of Kahneman. The Hawks use the Rational System for their own benifit. They Play with the Rules and invent new exiting possibilities to win more than they ever could imagine.

Sometimes they Play Dirty Games to beat their Opponents. The Doves believe the Economic (Rational) Fairy Tales of the Hawks and are unable to understand the Real Value of their Money.

The Money Illusion is caused by Inflation. Inflation happens when prices Rise but the value of the objects that are priced stays the same. Inflation give people the feeling that they are making money but in reality they are losing money.

The Hawks use Inflation to keep the Doves Buying and Investing. They also use the weapon of Inflation to win the war with the other Hawks.

The Majority of the Human Beings are Doves. They believe the Hawks or are afraid of the Hawks. The Doves are the Workers in the Economy and they make it possible for the Hawks to Hunt.

The Hawks provide the Workers with many things to live an easy life until other Hawks start to Attack the Territory. In this case the Hawks need the Workers to fight and win the War.

Sometimes even the Hawks lose their Rational Capacity. They see a Big Win and become Greedy and Vulnerable. If this happens the Territory is open for other Hawks (The Chinese?) to enter and to take over without any problem.

What has Happened?

The Economic System is just like the Weather System a Cyclic System. When the Economic Cycles and the Weather Systems move UP the Hawks have an Easy Time. Their is enough food for all the Hawks. When the System is going Down Competition starts.

The Hawks forgot to look at the patterns. They did not see or believe that the downfall was approaching. They did not take enough stock to survive the Seven Bad Years. Suddenly the Autumn turned into Winter.

At this moment they are regrouping to create a Powerfull Alliance to take from the other Hawks what they need. They don’t care about the Doves. They always believe the Tales they Tell.

They are afraid of the Other Hawks that are outside their Huge Territory and are Prepared to Fight the Wars that are needed. The Doves will believe them as usual.

LINKS

About Prospect Theory and Conflict Resolution

About Economic Cycles

Kahneman/Renshon, Hawkish Biases, 2009

A Very Long List of Cognitive Biases

About the Prisoner Dilemma in Foreign Policy

An Abstract of the Book Animal Spirits

How the Chinese Networks are Conquering the World

A Review of the book Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller by Benjamin Friedman

About the Psychological Defense System

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

Human beings and the other organisms always want to avoid pain. There are many mechanisms called the Psychological Defenses to do this. One of them, called Repression, blocks painful memories. People Repress the thought that Prices of Houses and Shares always go Up and Down, Excessive Borrowing is Dangerous and Politicians always act on the Short-Term.

When something happens that violates the Human Believe System humans don’t see or hear what is really happening. They start to Deny the Facts and look for arguments that support their denial. Politicians are experts in using the Human Defense System.

The Economic Cycle, The Kondratiev, the Cycle of Culture, The Cycle of the Climate, and the Long Term Cycles were in favour of a very Long Boom of Western Civilization but now all the Cycles are Moving Down.

The Kondratiev will be Moving Down until 2012, the Cycle of Western Culture is Moving Down and the Cycle of the East (China, India) is Moving UP, The Cycle of the Climate is moving to an Ice Age and last but not least the very long Cycle of the Precession is around 2012 moving into the Age of the Aquirius, the Waterbearer. According to very old (and new) prophecies Human Consciousness will move to a Higher Level.

The Big Trouble is that the temptation appears strong to continue to repress rather than to confront. While people seem eager to reduce debt and spending and reset the economy, governments respond to the excesses with more excesses, especially massive borrowing and spending. The same applies to the Climate Issue. Instead of confronting people with the spectacular Irriversible Changes that take place in the World Climate Politicians and Scientists suggest that the changes can be reverted by introducing Green Technology.

The best way to implement a huge change is to ACT immediatly and spend enough time to help the people to get accustomed to the Change.

We have to take the bitter pill first.

President Bush was an expert in the psychological defence of Projection. Bush used the Negative Side of the Current Situation and projected every possible cause on an outside Enemy, the Terrorists. Bush used Fear to motivate his Voters.

The new President Obama is doing the opposite. He always talks about a Bright Shared Future.  Instead of Fear Obama uses Hope.

Hope can turn into Disappointment when the Expectations are not realized. When the Expectations Fail People get Frustrated and move into the Negative, Agressive and Impulsive Mode of the Reptile Brain. Fear takes over again.

Obama and Bush are playing with a very important part of the Human Being called the Expectation.

The Expectation is the Human Calculator. It tries to predict the Future to avoid pain. The Emotions, The Imagination. the Senses and the Consciousness are the other parts of the Five Fold Human Being. The Senses face the Facts. The Emotions are looking for Shelter and Love. The Imagination wants to Create and the Consciousness manages the Four Parts and brings them in Balance.

If the Expectation is dominating the Human Being he experiences the Fear to lose Control. The best way to solve this problem is to Face the Facts.

Obama Rescues the World Economy in London, Heales the Nato Alliance in Strasbourg, gets rid of Nuclear Weapons in Prague and Reconciles Islam and the West in Ankara. Before that time he has already solved the problems in Afghanistan (When there is Peace everybody will Work Together), saved the US Economy (Increase the Budget), the World Climate (Invest in Green Technology) and the US Banking System (Bail Out).

When you define a Clear strategy you have to be Realistic.

The world is on many levels highly unbalanced. Everybody knows that an unbalanced state will always move to a balanced state in due time. The West has to accept that the East is trying to move to the same State as the West. The West also has to accept that this is simply impossible. The Earth is incapable to provide the necessary Energy and Food.

A Realistic Strategy is to Lower the West so the East is capable to Move Up.

In the West Politicians need Votes to stay in Power. To keep the majority of the Voters happy they have to Move UP the Economy. Almost nobody of the current leaders has the courage to tell the voters that the West is at the end of its Cycle and has to move Down. The effect of the current Policy is a continuation of the Status Quo.

To move out of the Status Quo Politicians are looking for extreme certainty when they decide to change their policies. They need the Rational Backup of the Scientists to show the voters that what they are Doing is the Right Thing to Do.

Science is unable to provide this certainty. The complexity of the Economic and the Ecological System of the Earth is so big that nobody is able to comprehend what is really happening and what will be the effect of a decision on the long term.

It is really not difficult to determine what has to happen. The only thing that is difficult is to sell the message to people that are denying reality and therefore cannot face the real problems.

To keep Hope Alive Obama has to Deny the Negative Aspects of Western Society. He has to show that everybody is moving in the Same Positive Direction. To avoid a Huge Conflict he has to Compromise with the Current Economic Power Structures in Western Society. They created the Crisis and are still capable to deepen the Crisis. He simply needs their Cooperation.

The big question is how far he will go in his cooperative actions. Someday he has to make a choice and every choice has its consequences.

If he balances the Budget the Economy will Crash.

If he abandons the Dollar and chooses for a “world currency” the Dollar will crash.

If he choses to protect his own Economy other Countries will do the same and the US Export will crash.

If he leaves the East others will take over the Power in this Region. The East is still needed to provide Energy.

Russia owns a lot of Energy, wants to become a World Power and is expanding its territory again. They are blackmaling Germany with their pipelines. The European Union has lost its cohesion. The Rich and the Poor countries have different aims. The Eastern Countries need the protection of the West to keep Russia within its boundaries. The Western Countries are not able to pay for the Eastern Counties. Almost all the members of the current EG are against the entrance of Turkey. Turkey will destroy the fragile balance in Europe. The US needs Turkey as an ally to keep a balance in the Moslim World.

China and India want to expand their economy. They have creaed a coalition (BRIG) with Russia, Latin-American Countries and African Countries (South-Africa!). In terms of population they represent the Majority of the World. Pakistan is still the biggest enemy of India. Some day there will be huge nuclear conflict and the US has to make a choice. If the US suppports India Pakistan as a state will be destroyed and the extreme muslims will take over the Power in the East. They will become a huge threat for the Eastern Borders of Russia.

It looks like the US has no choice to make friends and to stay friends with the Political Leaders that are still acting in the big Power-Plays of the World. All the Big Players are playing their own Game. They change their relationships without any problem when their own targest are violated.

If the new President keeps on playing the Game of Compromise he will lose his Voters soon and the Competitors, the Republicans, will be able to go on with their Strategy. They just wait and see to take over the Power.

William K. Black, the former Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention and the pioneer of KYC software from Fully-Verified, shows that Obama is helping the Financial Elite of the US to get out of Trouble. According to William Black they have committed Fraude at a scale nobody has seen before.

The US Government is creating a Huge Cover Up to avoid the End of Hope and the Beginning of a Revolution that could lead to extreme Violence by the People that are the real Victims, the US Citizins.

When you watch this video below you will experience a State of Anger and old memories about the way the Elites cover their asses will come back. You will be disappointed about the way Obama is handling the situation. If you don’t want to wake Up out of a the State of Repression I advice you not to watch or to Deny what William Black is trying to explain.

You could also Erase your Memory.

LINKS

About the Psychological Defenses System

About the New US Foreign Policy

How the Financial Elite Engineered the Great Depression

About Confrontations and Conflicts

About Projection and Introspection

How to define a Clear Strategy

About the Heart Chakra

Monday, February 23rd, 2009

Good nutrition is even more important as you enter your 40s. Here are some diet tips that women can follow to stay healthy and fit as they age.

In your 40s? Here are 5 diet tips that will help women stay in tip-top shape

In your 40s? Here are 5 diet tips that will help women stay in tip-top shape  |  Photo Credit: iStock Images

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • A well-balanced diet plays a vital role in maintaining your overall health and well-being
  • If you’re a woman and are over 40, you may have noticed that it’s harder to lose weight than it used to be
  • Making healthier food choices and other healthier lifestyle habits can help you stay fit at any age

New Delhi: As you age, it’s even more important to watch what you eat, because that’s one of the best things you can do for your health. Perhaps, your metabolism slows down, you begin to lose muscle, and your body undergoes a lot of changes as you turn 40. Women, like men, can struggle with weight and other medical conditions such as hypertension, heart issues, obesity, high blood pressure or cholesterol levels upon turning 40. But a healthy, balanced diet along with a regular exercise routine, good sleep, low stress can help you maintain weight and improve overall health and well-being.

Perhaps, it’s completely natural for women going through the stage of menopause or peri-menopause to experience a variety of emotions, whether it’s PMS, tiredness, anxiety, depression, or difficulty concentrating. But, eating right and making other healthier lifestyle choices can help you keep health problems at bay. Yet, knowing what to eat or which foods work best for you and your needs will help you stay healthy and fit way past age 40. Check these metaboost connection reviews.

What to eat, what to avoid to stay healthy and look fab in your 40s

Good nutrition is even more important as you enter your 40s. So, what should you put on your plate? Dr Alka Bharti, consultant nutritionist & dietician, Motherhood Hospital, Kharadi, Pune, shares some diet and nutrition tips for women over 40:

  1. Load up on fibre: Adding whole grains to your diet can help improve metabolism, prevent or relieve constipation. Foods high in fibre can aid weight loss. A high-fibre diet may help lower blood sugar or cholesterol levels, lower your risk of certain cancers, and maintain bowel health. Replacing refined grains like white bread and white rice with whole grains (whole wheat bread, brown rice, and oats) will help you get more fibre from your diet. Moreover, salads are a good source of fibre. Eat coloured salads – spinach, carrots, cucumbers, tomatoes, bell peppers, olives, or even raisins, oranges, and strawberries to stay healthy. These ingredients contain fibre, potassium, antioxidants, and vitamin C. Fibre also helps keep the skin elastic and protect it against the harmful UV rays of the sun. If you already have high blood pressure, eating more whole-grain foods might help lower your blood pressure. The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet and the Mediterranean diet both recommend eating whole grains.
  2. Eliminate white stuff from the diet: Do you tend to eat those sugar-laden foods or have snacks or namkeens loaded with salt? Then, you are doing it all wrong. Beyond 40, it is necessary to bid adieu to the white stuff. Too much salt in the diet negatively impacts blood pressure because it causes the body to retain water. It is this extra water that raises blood pressure. You will be shocked to know that this, in turn, strains the heart, kidneys, arteries, and the brain. Give up fried, processed, junk, and spicy foods too. Salt is also present in high amounts in cheese, frozen food, and that yummy pizza. Eating a lot of sweets can be harmful as it can speed up the ageing process, cause high blood glucose, leading to diabetes. Not only this, other problems like heart disease, kidney or nerve damage can also occur. Say no to aerated drinks, sweets, ice creams, and chocolates. So, try to eliminate added salt and refined sugar from the diet. You can speak to your expert about healthier alternatives to added sugar and salt.
  3.  Eat foods rich in lutein: Cognitive problems occur as you age -memory issues, difficulty in concentrating, or confusion are some of the common problems. Opt for foods packed with lutein, a pigment that is present in many fruits and vegetables like green leafy vegetables and carrots. Eat spinach, asparagus, seafood, or snack on a cup of sunflower seeds as they are jam-packed with vitamin nutrients, including E linked to memory and vision. Visit https://www.collegian.psu.edu/the_savvy_student/testoprime-review-2022—what-makes-it-number-one-testosterone-booster/article_521ae7d4-180c-11ed-a11a-d363dde7aa63.html.
  4. Say ‘yes’ to antioxidants: Want a radiant skin at and beyond the 40s? Then, don’t forget to include antioxidants in your diet. That’s because your skin loses elasticity and you may spot wrinkles, blemishes, and black spots as you age. Add omega-3 fatty acids in your diet to nourish your skin. You can eat salmon, sardine, and mackerel for this.
  5. Protein and calcium are must: Whether you want to stay strong, increase muscle mass, or reduce fractures and falls, include lean meats, fish, eggs as well as veggie options like beans, lentils, nuts, and grains, in your diet. Speak to your nutritionist about the quantity of protein that you must eat as going overboard with the nutrient isn’t a good idea. A lack of calcium invites bone loss, which increases during menopause because of the body’s natural loss of estrogen. Make sure you are eating enough calcium by eating foods like seeds, yogurt, almonds, figs, lentils, etc, to keep your bones healthy.