Why a Depression Takes Thirteen Years

The start and the end of the current depression was predicted a very long time (1922) ago by Nikolai Kondratiev. The Kondratiev Cycle is an economic cycle which lasts between 50 to 60 years.

Kondratiev predicted that the current Depression will start in 2000 and end around 13 years later. Kondratiev used the Seasons to name the phases of his Cycle. We are now in the phase of the Kondratiev Winter.

Spring is marked by economic expansion. Savings are at fairly high levels, and interest rates are low. Stocks and real estate are the most successful investments.

Summer is marked by high inflation, high interest rates and by volatility. Commodities, gold, and real estate do well during the summer.

Autumn is the happiest phase of the Cycle. This phase started about 1982 and ended around 2000. During Autumn paper financial investments like stocks and bonds always do best. It is characterized by speculative bubbles or manias in stocks, bonds, real estate, and collectibles. On the other hand, gold, silver, and commodities collapse. Unfortunately, the Autumn is also marked by a serious decrease in savings, and a dangerous and reckless increase in debt. The imbalances build up to the point where they cannot continue. That’s where we are now.

When Winter arrives the insane excesses of the Autumn are purged and cleansed. The ultimate result is a deflationary recession or depression. Debt is repudiated. There is usually a banking crisis. Bankruptcies and foreclosures increase, as does social discontent. During the Kondratiev Winter, gold and cash are the best investments.

It is very strange that almost nobody believes the Kondratiev Cycle is a tool to predict the Economy. If people would have believed the Cycle it would be very simple to move through the Depression. In the UP-state you have to save money to sustain the DOWN-state. When you don’t do this the DOWN-state will bring you in to big trouble. At this moment the World has used almost all his resources. We have saved almost nothing to move through the deep recession.

In 1931 the US Department of Commerce assigned Edward Dewey the task of discovering the cause and underlying dynamics of the Great Depression. The US Government created a special institute the Foundation for the Study of Economic Cycles. The US Government never took the research of the Institute for granted or used it for another purpose (Financial Warfare?).

The most interesting observation of Dewey is that Cycles restore themselves all the time and Cycles are influenced by other Cycles. They are entrained. We are not talking about a single isolated Economic cycle. The Universe is an Integrated Harmonic System. The Universe is a Wave that generates Waves that generates Waves. At this moment Physicists believe this is the case (String Theory, Plasma Theory).

To me it is unbelievable that Economists like Milton Friedman called the ongoing statistical research of Dewey and many related Cycle theorists “not scientific“. To me it is also unbelievable that almost nobody takes even a look at the enormous amount of data that is gathered. I believe ignoring the scientific facts of the Cycles is not only stupid but also a crime. It is a crime because by constantly ignoring and pushing the cycles the whole harmonic system (including your Body, the Weather, Society, Earth) gets out of balance.

The Cycle of Kondratiev is a “long-term” cycle but there are cycles with a much longer periodicity (The Precession). The “short-term” cycles of the Kondratiev Ride The Wave of the Very long term cycles. If a very long term cycle moves down the Kondratiev also moves down much deeper and much faster.

This is happening and we are totally not prepared to cope with the new phases of the “dominant” long term cycles. The Harmonic System is preparing to Jump to a new State of Balance. This State has been given many names like Time Wave Zero (Terrence McKenna) and Point Omega (Teilhard de Chardin).

In the old age the Scientists who studied the cycles were called Astrologers. They have gathered a lot of data about the Cycles. Just like Milton Friedman we think Astrology is not scientific but many people just ignore that we are now equipped with much better tools and theories to explain what is happening. The old Astrologers did a spectacular job without computers, telescopes and a highly developed mathematics.

If you read the Predictions of the Old Astrologers like The Maya and The Magi you have to understand that they wrote in the language and the metaphors of their time but their message is the same message McKenna and other Cycle-Theorist want to tell.


About the Kondratiev Wave

The Case for Cycles, R.Dewey

About the Cycle of the Climate

About the Cycle of History

About  the Cycle of the Seasons

About the Very Long Cycle Theory of Terrence McKenna

About the Transformation Phase of the Cycle

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