Posts Tagged ‘Cycle’

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »

About Old Fashioned Thinking

Monday, December 21st, 2009

 

Success Tips for First-Time Entrepreneurs

 

Being a first-time entrepreneur can be challenging and nerve-wracking but also very exciting and rewarding. There is no end to the many financial, legal, staffing, marketing, and customer issues that will come up as you launch your business. A‎nd, unfortunately, there is a lot of conflicting advice out there for the aspiring entrepreneur. But here are 15 core tips to help you begin navigating the startup landscape:

1‎. First-time entrepreneurs should start a business they are passionate and knowledgeable about

Startups can be quite a grind, so pick something that excites and motivates you. Avoid businesses or industries that you don’t already know a good deal about, as the steep learning curve may hamper your success. Check out the best images of harold matzner.

2. Pick a business idea that has a big market opportunity

Make sure to carefully reseach if there’s a big market for your product or service. Investors will typically only invest in your company if they see a large market opportunity and that the company has the potential to grow into something significant.

3. Raise as much startup funding as you can

It’s almost always harder and takes longer to raise startup financing than you think. You must ensure you have a cushion for all the product development and marketing expenses you will incur. In an ideal world, you will have sufficient capital for your operations to break even. Don’t worry about diluting your percentage ownership in the company. Developing a great product takes time and money.

Check out these two articles on raising financing from invest‎ors: 28 Mistakes Entrepreneurs Make When Pitching to Investors and 20 Things Entrepreneurs Should Know About Angel Investors.

4. Constantly monitor your finances

You must keep on top of all of your expenses, income and balance sheet. Many startups have failed because the entrepreneur wasn’t able to adjust spending to avoid running out of cash. Maintain a low overhead. Be frugal with expenses and avoid unnecessary costs. Learn to live on a shoestring budget until meaningful revenues start to flow in.

5. Research the competitionMake sure you are thoroughly researching competitive products or services in the marketplace, and keep on top of new developments and enhancements from your competitors. ‎One way to do this is to set up a Google alert to notify you when any new information about your competitors shows up online.

6. Ask for advice from other entrepreneurs

Advice from other entrepreneurs and business professionals (such as lawyers and accountants) can prove to be invaluable. Consider putting together an advisory board, and don’t be afraid to motivate members by giving them stock options in your company. Read industry newsletters and startup publications like AllBusiness.com and Entrepreneur.com. Find mentors who can give you advice on hiring, product development, marketing and fundraising‎.

7. Develop a great elevator pitch

You should have a succinct and compelling story about what your startup does and what problem it solves. Have this ready for potential customers and investors (although you will need to tailor it to the specific audience)‎. Keep it to 30 seconds or less. Articulate your mission and goals, and why your product or service is compelling and unique. And if an investor is interested, be prepared to follow up with an executive summary about the company or a 12-15 slide PowerPoint “deck” that dives into more detail about the company and the market opportunity.

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Completed, History, Philosophy | Comments Off

About the Productivity of Knowledge Workers

Monday, August 10th, 2009

To lose weight, a person needs to burn more calories than they take in. Some natural fat burners, however, may help the body burn more fat by increasing metabolism or reducing hunger.

To burn fat, a person cannot rely on a single food or supplement. They also need to reduce their total calorie intake and increase physical activity levels.

However, when part of a healthful diet and lifestyle, the right fat burners may help speed up weight loss.

In this article, we discuss some potential natural fat burners and the evidence supporting them. We will also cover fat-burning pills, tips for using natural fat burners, and other natural ways to lose weight.  These are the best prodentim reviews.

Protein
salmon saladShare on Pinterest

Eating meals high in protein may help a person feel fuller for longer.

Protein can support fat burning and weight loss in many ways. For example, people who consume high-protein foods may feel fuller for longer. Eating protein may also increase metabolism, allowing the body to more efficiently burn fat.

Some high-protein foods contain fewer calories than high-carbohydrate foods. For example, a large bowl, or 124 grams (g), of cooked, plain spaghetti contains 196 calories and 7.19 g of proteinTrusted Source. In contrast, two large hard-boiled eggs contain 155 calories and 12.58 g of proteinTrusted Source.

A 2012 review found that after losing weight, consuming a low-protein diet increases a person’s risk of regaining body weight. To boost weight loss, many sources recommend a daily intake of 1–2 g of protein per kilogram of body weight.

To maximize weight loss, a person should try to choose lower-calorie proteins, such as lean chicken, fish, and plant-based proteins. They should avoid consuming excessive amounts of red meat, fried foods, or foods with added oil, fat, or butter.

Polyphenols

Polyphenols are a group of chemicals present in many foods, particularly fruits and vegetables. Some research suggests that polyphenol-rich foods may aid weight loss.

A 2011 study found that a diet rich in polyphenols may interact with bacteria in the intestines to support weight loss, especially when combined with a diet low in probiotics.

Other studies of specific polyphenol-rich foods, such as curcumin, have also found an association with weight loss. For instance, a 2015 study found that taking curcumin supplements increased weight loss more than placebo in people who were overweight and had metabolic syndrome.

Some foods that are rich in polyphenols include:

  • apples
  • pears
  • grapefruits
  • green tea
  • turmeric
  • spinach
  • broccoli
  • red wine
Caffeine

Caffeine is a stimulant that can increase a person’s metabolism. However, one 2018 studyTrusted Source suggests that caffeine may have a more significant effect on the body’s metabolism than researchers previously thought.

The study followed 47 people from Finland who drank coffee but had stopped drinking coffee for a month. The researchers found an association between coffee consumption and 115 metabolites.

When trying to burn fat, it is best to choose low-calorie coffee options by avoiding high-calorie sweeteners, milks, and creams.

Probiotics
kimchi being taken out of a jarShare on Pinterest

Consuming food that contains probiotics will help support the digestive system.

Probiotics are live bacteria and yeast that are beneficial to human health. Many foods contain probiotics, including yogurts and fermented foods such as kimchi, sauerkraut, and tempeh. Probiotics are also available as dietary supplements.

The digestive system is home to trillions of bacteria. ResearchTrusted Source suggests that consuming probiotics can help improve the natural balance between helpful and harmful bacteria in the gut, as well as support digestion.

Some health practitioners also claim that these gut-dwelling bacteria may play a role in metabolism and weight loss.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Business, Completed, Cycles, Learning | Comments Off

About the PeseDJet

Monday, July 20th, 2009

Tips for a Healthy Eating Lifestyle

Woman in pain hold her lower back with her hand

One size does not fit all when it comes to healthy eating. Yet anyone can follow some simple tips to create patterns that will help them eat well and reap the benefits of a long-term healthy eating lifestyle.

Dr. Hooman Yaghoobzadeh, a cardiologist at NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center, says there’s real value to doing a “deep dive” into how we eat. Visit Washingtoncitypaper.

“Several dietary patterns are linked to good health,” he says, “including a plant-based whole foods diet and a Mediterranean diet. Other patterns, like a highly processed foods diet and a Southern diet, are linked to disease such as diabetes and heart disease.”

Although controversy exists as to what constitutes the ideal diet, there is little controversy about the healthy patterns in the American Heart Association’s diet and lifestyle recommendations, Dr. Yaghoobzadeh says.

Here, Dr. Yaghoobzadeh offers recommendations to get started on a healthy eating pattern, with four essential goals to lead the way: reduce sugar, increase fiber, reduce processed foods, and reduce saturated fat.

“If you can master these tips for a month, then at least you will carry some, if not all, of the habits long term,” Dr. Yaghoobzadeh says. “They are a start — but remember that having fun with tasty fresh foods and the joy that eating with loved ones brings is also essential.”

  1. Eat mostly plant-based whole foods (85%) and some seafood (10%) as foundational parts of your diet and save highly processed foods and animal products (desserts, cheese, your favorite “whatever”) as treats (5%). These are the best prodentim reviews.Whole foods such as beans, nuts, seeds, grains, fruits, vegetables, herbs, tubers (for example, potatoes and yams), and fungi (mushrooms) are high in fiber, have many health benefits, and are linked to lower rates of various diseases while promoting weight loss. These foods are also rich in nutrients and vitamins; have less saturated fat and more polyunsaturated and monounsaturated fats than most animal proteins; and rarely require limits on caloric intake.
    Another plus is that eating mostly plants leads to diversity in your diet, which leads to diversity of your gut microbiome, which is also linked to health. It’s hard to pick three or four whole plant foods that will satiate all your needs and, unlike some strict diets, you won’t have to stick to a food. The beauty of that is that chickpeas have different fibers, micronutrients, vitamins, etc., from black beans, which are different from lentils, which are different from fava beans.
  2. Minimize toxic foods like sugar and soda. Sugar increases inflammation and, research suggests, tumor growth as well. Soda, including diet soda, is linked to weight gain, diabetes, and a host of other medical problems. Make dark chocolate — at least 70% cacao — your go-to dessert. Meanwhile, maximize herbs such as dill, parsley, cilantro, tarragon, and spices like turmeric, cinnamon, saffron, and cumin. Herbs are high-octane sources of vitamins, nutrients, and anti-inflammatory substances. Read more about at https://www.timesunion.com/.
  3. Don’t fret about getting enough protein or any specific nutrients. On a diversified diet that combines whole foods and seafood, you will get enough protein, omega-3s, which are essential fatty acids found mainly in fish oils, and calcium from foods like seafood, legumes, seeds, nuts, and greens.
  4. Look at the carb-to-fiber ratio when eating processed foods. Visible on processed food labels you can see “Total Carbs” — just divide by “Total Fiber” to get a ratio. Whole foods typically have carb-to-fiber ratios that are less than 8, and the lower the ratio the better. You can use this baseline to compare pastas, bread, bars, cereals, and chips.
  5. Don’t panic about “what am I supposed to eat?” There are many consumer services that will deliver healthy foods to your door, as well as websites with guidance and sample menus. Here is a sample dinner salad idea that Dr. Yaghoobzadeh suggests to his patients.
  6. Avoid meat/dairy replacers. They tend to be highly processed, use saturated fats, and have unproven health benefits. Dr. Yaghoobzadeh says he avoids supplements unless there is a proven deficiency, and in that situation increasing whole-food sources in the diet is usually beneficial. B12 (prevalent in foods like milk, eggs, and meat) is the one exception; a B12 supplement may be necessary if your levels are too low. But, for the most part, supplements should be avoided as much as possible.
  7. Incremental steps are proven to have incremental benefits. Although a monthlong trial of a diet rich in plant-based whole foods can be very instructional, you don’t need to take an all-or-nothing approach. And if you fall off the wagon for a meal or a day, just get right back to it as quickly as possible.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Completed, History | Comments Off

Many Reasons to Believe that the Economy will not Recover in a Short Time

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

The Unemployement and the Stock Market are rising for some time now. A new Stock Market Bubble is building up and will explode in the near future. The biggest Bubble is certainly the US Deficit Bubble.

The Stock Market Bubble and the Deficit Bubble will explode as soon as the major creditors (China, India, …) of the US will move out of the Dollar. This is happening already.

The Customers are the backbone of the Economy and the Leaders understand very well that the Economy is governed by Psychology. So Bad News is hidden en Good News is exaggerated. The Expectations of Analysts are always beaten and the downfall is falling slower than before.

The Economy is still in a terrible state and this state is getting worse every day. The unemployement is still rising and will rise for a very long time because companies are getting broke or are rationalizing everything that is possible.

They replace their employees by IT-Technology and Cheap Labor. The customers are not buying, they are saving more and more money for a rainy day or are paying back their debts.

Saving money will not stimulate the economy. It stimulates unemployment. The rising unemployement results in more foreclosures and problems with credit card debts. The Economic Downturn is just at its beginning.

Economist John Williams says that– if the unemployment rate was calculated as it was during the Great Depression the unemployment figures for July 2009 rose to 20.6%. According to an article summarizing the projections of former International Monetary Fund Chief Economist and Harvard University Economics Professor Kenneth Rogoff and University of Maryland Economics Professor Carmen Reinhart,… unemployment could rise to 22% within the next 4 years or so.”

The Scenario of the Current Downturn is highly comparable with the Scenario of the Great Depression with one exception. The current Downturn is much deeper than the other. We are approaching the Biggest Global Economic Crisis in Human History.

The current investors base their policy on positive news and ignore the bad news. They believe the economy will rise when the customer-confidence is rising or when the downfall of the economy is “slowing down” or “bottoming”. They don’t see that a slowing down of a downfall is still a downfall.

The investors, the Doves, act just like the behavioral economists predict they will act. They read the headlines, believe the Hawks and are not aware of the (Money) Illusion the Government, the Media and the Banks are creating. The Hawks know better. They buy Silver, Gold and certainly the best investment, Oil.

Nouriel Roubini has a more realistic view on the economy. In his article Ten Risks to Global Growth he analyses the risks that could block the recovery of the economy and his conclusion is highly pessimistic.

According to Roubini the major cause of the crisis is overspending. Overspending is a normal activity when the Kondratiev-Cycle is in the state of Autumn. The debts are always repayed in the next phase, Winter. In the Kondratiev Winter the economy is purged and cleansed. This phase started around 2000 and will be finished around 2013. In the Winter-State you have to stay in cash or invest is Gold and Silver.

At this moment the investors don’t know what currency they have to chose for their cash-reserves. Usually the Dollar was a Save Heaven but the current policy of the FED to expand the amount of Dollars to an almost unbelievable amount is seen as a huge risk.

The Creditors (China, India, ..) of the US are already creating an alternative currency and are secretly and slowly moving out of the Dollar. If the Trust in the Dollar has gone the US Economy will go bankrupt.

The big problem with the current Cycle is that we have moved to the Level of Earth. In the last downfall of the Kondratiev Cycle other parts of the world were decoupled. They moved in a complementary mode. The Down of one part of the Earth was compensated by an Up somewhere else.

At this moment the complementary parts are synchronized and act and react according to the same rhythm. This rhythm is related to a longer term cycle that almost nobody is aware of. This cycle with a periodicity of 250 years is called the Secular Cycle.

The current level of integration of the World Economy is very dangerous. The production-processes of the Earth are highly rationalized and integrated. When one process stops the rest of the processes also has to stop.

The very high level of rationalization causes cascades or avalanches. The fast and slow avalanches generate sudden bursts of unemployment and financial disasters. The Car Industry and the Financial Industry are good examples. At this moment the avalanches start new avalanches in completely different branches of the tree of the World Economy.

The Crisis in the Banking Industry puts a large part of the Corporate Sector under severe financial stress. Firms that in the past would have been able to roll over their loans, bonds and debts now face a liquidity crisis that may lead them into costly debt restructuring.

This will affect the Banking Industry and will also put a high strain on the Bailout capacity of the Governments who are not able to leant money or inflate money until eternity.

The only solution that is left is to Rationalize even more than the Companies were planning to do. Their only solution is to speed up the use of IT (Use the Internet) and fire the employees. It is very clear that the use of IT in Companies is still in its infancy. Many manual activities can be replaced by software. The total effect will be a worsening of the current crisis.

To stop the cascades governments are starting to Protect and Regulate their Economies. The Worldwide Cooperative Institutions are losing their grip and the Free Market Economy is on its return.

Big Companies are splitted according to the old Boundaries of Power. The expansion and integration of the EG is blocked because the member states suddenly have conflicting objectives. The Rich Countries don’t want to help the Poor Countries because the Rich Countries are getting poorer with the minute.

Not only the poor member states of the EG are getting into big trouble. The same applies to the Underdeveloped Countries. The poor Countries of the World are on their own. Everybody is in the Survival mode and The Fittest, The Rich, will as always Survive.

The world is not only hit by a Economic and a Cultural crisis. The world is also hit by a Climate Crisis. Although human activity plays an important (negative) role the Cycle of the Climate related to the activities of our Sun and the Movement of Earth in our System (the Precession Cycle) is much more important.

The current change in Climate is irreversible and will have a major effect on the world economy. Climate change and ecological misuse are the major factor why Societies collapse.

The last factor and perhaps most important factor is the Energy Consumption of the World. This consumption is not only affecting the Climate but it also facilitates a huge highly integrated Transport-System.

This System is the Backbone of the Integrated Value-Chains of the Western World. The Western World is completely dependent on the transport system for its Industrial Production and the Supply of Food.

The Transport System has a devastating effect on the poor countries in the World. To make enough money to survive they have to export their products to the Western Markets ignoring their own needs.

It is certain that the supply of oil and gas is lower than the increasing demand. The resources all over the world are going down. The total effect of this all will be a dramatic rise in price. This will affect the rich countries and in particular the US. They are already the major importer of energy in the World and when you import something you have to export something else to keep the financial balance in order.

As you already know the deficit of the US is spectacular and the only reason the US is not broke is the special role of the Dollar. If the economy recovers the demand and the prices will rise and the US Economy will slow down immediately.

What is Going to Happen?

Every scenario leads to a long term decline of the Economy, our Culture and our Civilization. The theory of the short term and long term cycles is right and it is very stupid to ignore these theories.

According to the Panarchy Model the world is too connected and this leads to an increasing rigidity in its goal to retain its state. The rigidity reduces resilience and the capacity of the system to absorb change, thus increasing the threat of abrupt change. The world is unable to cope with the changes of climate and culture that are happening now. Therefore we will see the collapse of the accumulated connections and the destruction of bound up knowledge and capital.

The highly integrated structures of the Earth (the Cooperative Institutions, the Big Companies, Governments AND the Transport System) are bound to desintegrate. The impact on the local structures is immens. Communities will have to grow their own food, manufacture and repair their own tools, create their own currency etc etc on a local level again.

Most of these structures have outsourced these functions to places far away and don’t have the skills nor the resources to do this. The fittest, the Haws, will survive but it is unclear if the Doves will accept this situation forever. A Rise of the Masses just like the French Revolution in 1789 (almost 250 years ago!) is possible.

The world is moving to a very fast transformation. The only thing that can be said when we use the Panarchy Model is that it will move back to a stable state before the expansion started and start all over again. The Wisdom of the Old Civilizations that survived earlier Collapses is very valuable. These lessons are very easy to comprehend.

Civilizations die because the humans don’t want to Move with the Cycles, don’t Cooperate and don’t Respect Mother Nature. When Civilizations Collaps even the Hawks lose Everything!

LINKS

Peter Schiff, Why the US Economy will Collaps this Year

How the Fed is cheating the citizins. About Deflation.

Why the Labormarket is Much Worse than we Think

Why the Current Crisis is comparable with the Great Depression

About Behavioral Economics, Why Hawks always Win and Doves always Lose

Nouriel Roubini, Ten Risks to Global Growth

About The Kondratiev Winter and the Generations Theory

About the End of the US Dollar

Why the US Defense Budget will Destroy the US Economy

Peter Turchin, About Secular Cycles

The Complete Text of the Book of Turchin

About the Problems the Real Estate Market is Facing

Why Rationalization is the cause of the current Crisis

About Cascades and Avalanches

Jared Diamond, Why Societies Collapse

About the World Food Crisis

Jeff Rubin, Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller

About Peak Oil, The Model that Predicts the End of Oil and Gas

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Business, Completed, Economy, Psychology | Comments Off

About Behavioral Economics: Why Hawks Always Win and Doves Always Lose

Friday, May 29th, 2009

horusThe belief in Rational Decision Making has been the focus of Economic Theory for a very long time.

Although everybody knew that Humans are Highly Impulsive and Emotional, Economists based their theoretical models of the Market on a Rational Human Being who is always able to Calculate the best Alternative possible. This Theory is wrong. The Economic Behavior is controlled by the Emotions.

The current economic crisis shows that the old Rational Theory is not applicable and the attention for alternative theories of Economic Behavior is rising. These theories are called Behavioral Economics.

An important paper in the development of behavioral economics was written by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979 (Prospect Theory, Analysis of Decision Under Risk). Kahneman was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his research in Prospect Theory.

According to Prospect Theory, Humans attach much greater weight to future losses than to future gains related to their personal reference point. When you expect a certain gain in the future and this gain is lower than you expect the gain is experienced as a loss.

Kahmeman and Tversky became the experts on Cognitive Bias. A Bias is a “not-rational” mostly fast response to a stressful situation. In this case the Human System uses old structures (The Reptile Brain) that were created a very long time ago when the human lived in a completely different environment. The Reptile Brain uses many shortcuts to save time.

Social and cognitive psychologists have identified a number of predictable errors in the ways that humans judge situations and evaluate risks. Biases have been documented both in the laboratory and in the real world. For example, people are prone to exaggerating their strengths: About 80 percent of us believe that our driving skills are better than average.

In 2009 Kahneman and Renshon wrote a paper called Hawkish Biases. It is an attempt to unite the many Cognitive Biases into one Model. The model shows that Humans are highly Confused Predators (Hawks).

As a Predator they protect their Territory with every means possible. They are Confused because they are capable to Observe and Reason about their own behavior and the behavior of others.

Humans need the “Illusion of Control” to sustain their own Identity. Every time something happens they are looking for reasons to believe that they are the Primary Actor in their own context. They don’t want to believe that Other Human Beings are also Active Agents.

If they would believe this was the case their “Unrealistic Optimism” could change into “Realistic Pessimism”. Unrealistic Optimism makes managers, politicians and generals receptive to advisors who offer highly favorable estimates of the outcomes. Such a predisposition, often shared by leaders on both sides of a conflict, is likely to produce a disaster.

When a Human is Depressed by Realism he Loses his Face and moves down in the Picking Order of the Territory.

Humans believe that every other Human is always capable to see their Weaknesses (“the Illusion of Transparency“) just like they are convinced that the intentions of others are always clear to them (“the Fundamental Attribution Error“). To hide their Weaknesses they have to wear a Mask and Play the Strong Leader of the Pack. They have to Keep Up their Appearances.

doveHumans base their theory of the other on inferences about historical behavior and completely forget Situational aspects. When a context is hostile the other must be hostile too. When others behave differently from their expectations they suddenly introduce situational factors to sustain their believe system.

Humans need to sustain their believe-system because this system is the foundation of their personality. Their view on the World has to stay constant because when it changes too fast they will get into big psychological problems. When people get older their believe-system becomes very rigid.

Humans value their own possessions much higher as the possessions of others (“The Endowment Effect”). They even consider possible, imaginary, possessions as real possessions if they are convinced there is an easy way to get them.

If they lose a real or imaginary possession they take tremendous risks to get their possessions back (“Risk Seeking in Losses“). People in general don’t like cutting their losses. They’re willing to gamble on in the hope of recovering them.

Humans simply believe that a Hawk always wins the Game and a Dove always loses. What Humans (want to) forget is that they are living in a group and their In-Group and the many Out-Groups contains many Hawks. They need the confidence that they are “the best” to Survive.

The world of the Human Hawk is a world of Competition (Winner takes all) and therefore highly Stressful. The Sad Thing is that the many faces of Stress are the Major Cause of the Cognitive Bias. When Humans relax and reflect they are much more capable to solve a complicated conflict.

The competitive Hawks always fall in the trap of the Prisoners Dilemma and don’t realize that Cooperation, the Win-Win is the only Certain Way to Leave the Prison.

At this moment another Behavioral Economist, Robert Shiller, is getting a lot of attention. Together with the Economic Nobel Prize Winner George Akerlof he wrote the book “Animal Spirits“.

In the book they identify five distinct elements that blur the theory of the Rational Economy. These elements or “animal spirits” are called: confidence, fairness, corruption; money illusion and the reliance on “stories”of others.

The first three have a lot to do with the “hawk“-theory of Kahneman. The Hawks use the Rational System for their own benifit. They Play with the Rules and invent new exiting possibilities to win more than they ever could imagine.

Sometimes they Play Dirty Games to beat their Opponents. The Doves believe the Economic (Rational) Fairy Tales of the Hawks and are unable to understand the Real Value of their Money.

The Money Illusion is caused by Inflation. Inflation happens when prices Rise but the value of the objects that are priced stays the same. Inflation give people the feeling that they are making money but in reality they are losing money.

The Hawks use Inflation to keep the Doves Buying and Investing. They also use the weapon of Inflation to win the war with the other Hawks.

The Majority of the Human Beings are Doves. They believe the Hawks or are afraid of the Hawks. The Doves are the Workers in the Economy and they make it possible for the Hawks to Hunt.

The Hawks provide the Workers with many things to live an easy life until other Hawks start to Attack the Territory. In this case the Hawks need the Workers to fight and win the War.

Sometimes even the Hawks lose their Rational Capacity. They see a Big Win and become Greedy and Vulnerable. If this happens the Territory is open for other Hawks (The Chinese?) to enter and to take over without any problem.

What has Happened?

The Economic System is just like the Weather System a Cyclic System. When the Economic Cycles and the Weather Systems move UP the Hawks have an Easy Time. Their is enough food for all the Hawks. When the System is going Down Competition starts.

The Hawks forgot to look at the patterns. They did not see or believe that the downfall was approaching. They did not take enough stock to survive the Seven Bad Years. Suddenly the Autumn turned into Winter.

At this moment they are regrouping to create a Powerfull Alliance to take from the other Hawks what they need. They don’t care about the Doves. They always believe the Tales they Tell.

They are afraid of the Other Hawks that are outside their Huge Territory and are Prepared to Fight the Wars that are needed. The Doves will believe them as usual.

LINKS

About Prospect Theory and Conflict Resolution

About Economic Cycles

Kahneman/Renshon, Hawkish Biases, 2009

A Very Long List of Cognitive Biases

About the Prisoner Dilemma in Foreign Policy

An Abstract of the Book Animal Spirits

How the Chinese Networks are Conquering the World

A Review of the book Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller by Benjamin Friedman

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Business, Completed, Economy, Psychology | Comments Off

About the Psychological Defense System

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

Human beings and the other organisms always want to avoid pain. There are many mechanisms called the Psychological Defenses to do this. One of them, called Repression, blocks painful memories. People Repress the thought that Prices of Houses and Shares always go Up and Down, Excessive Borrowing is Dangerous and Politicians always act on the Short-Term.

When something happens that violates the Human Believe System humans don’t see or hear what is really happening. They start to Deny the Facts and look for arguments that support their denial. Politicians are experts in using the Human Defense System.

The Economic Cycle, The Kondratiev, the Cycle of Culture, The Cycle of the Climate, and the Long Term Cycles were in favour of a very Long Boom of Western Civilization but now all the Cycles are Moving Down.

The Kondratiev will be Moving Down until 2012, the Cycle of Western Culture is Moving Down and the Cycle of the East (China, India) is Moving UP, The Cycle of the Climate is moving to an Ice Age and last but not least the very long Cycle of the Precession is around 2012 moving into the Age of the Aquirius, the Waterbearer. According to very old (and new) prophecies Human Consciousness will move to a Higher Level.

The Big Trouble is that the temptation appears strong to continue to repress rather than to confront. While people seem eager to reduce debt and spending and reset the economy, governments respond to the excesses with more excesses, especially massive borrowing and spending. The same applies to the Climate Issue. Instead of confronting people with the spectacular Irriversible Changes that take place in the World Climate Politicians and Scientists suggest that the changes can be reverted by introducing Green Technology.

The best way to implement a huge change is to ACT immediatly and spend enough time to help the people to get accustomed to the Change.

We have to take the bitter pill first.

President Bush was an expert in the psychological defence of Projection. Bush used the Negative Side of the Current Situation and projected every possible cause on an outside Enemy, the Terrorists. Bush used Fear to motivate his Voters.

The new President Obama is doing the opposite. He always talks about a Bright Shared Future.  Instead of Fear Obama uses Hope.

Hope can turn into Disappointment when the Expectations are not realized. When the Expectations Fail People get Frustrated and move into the Negative, Agressive and Impulsive Mode of the Reptile Brain. Fear takes over again.

Obama and Bush are playing with a very important part of the Human Being called the Expectation.

The Expectation is the Human Calculator. It tries to predict the Future to avoid pain. The Emotions, The Imagination. the Senses and the Consciousness are the other parts of the Five Fold Human Being. The Senses face the Facts. The Emotions are looking for Shelter and Love. The Imagination wants to Create and the Consciousness manages the Four Parts and brings them in Balance.

If the Expectation is dominating the Human Being he experiences the Fear to lose Control. The best way to solve this problem is to Face the Facts.

Obama Rescues the World Economy in London, Heales the Nato Alliance in Strasbourg, gets rid of Nuclear Weapons in Prague and Reconciles Islam and the West in Ankara. Before that time he has already solved the problems in Afghanistan (When there is Peace everybody will Work Together), saved the US Economy (Increase the Budget), the World Climate (Invest in Green Technology) and the US Banking System (Bail Out).

When you define a Clear strategy you have to be Realistic.

The world is on many levels highly unbalanced. Everybody knows that an unbalanced state will always move to a balanced state in due time. The West has to accept that the East is trying to move to the same State as the West. The West also has to accept that this is simply impossible. The Earth is incapable to provide the necessary Energy and Food.

A Realistic Strategy is to Lower the West so the East is capable to Move Up.

In the West Politicians need Votes to stay in Power. To keep the majority of the Voters happy they have to Move UP the Economy. Almost nobody of the current leaders has the courage to tell the voters that the West is at the end of its Cycle and has to move Down. The effect of the current Policy is a continuation of the Status Quo.

To move out of the Status Quo Politicians are looking for extreme certainty when they decide to change their policies. They need the Rational Backup of the Scientists to show the voters that what they are Doing is the Right Thing to Do.

Science is unable to provide this certainty. The complexity of the Economic and the Ecological System of the Earth is so big that nobody is able to comprehend what is really happening and what will be the effect of a decision on the long term.

It is really not difficult to determine what has to happen. The only thing that is difficult is to sell the message to people that are denying reality and therefore cannot face the real problems.

To keep Hope Alive Obama has to Deny the Negative Aspects of Western Society. He has to show that everybody is moving in the Same Positive Direction. To avoid a Huge Conflict he has to Compromise with the Current Economic Power Structures in Western Society. They created the Crisis and are still capable to deepen the Crisis. He simply needs their Cooperation.

The big question is how far he will go in his cooperative actions. Someday he has to make a choice and every choice has its consequences.

If he balances the Budget the Economy will Crash.

If he abandons the Dollar and chooses for a “world currency” the Dollar will crash.

If he choses to protect his own Economy other Countries will do the same and the US Export will crash.

If he leaves the East others will take over the Power in this Region. The East is still needed to provide Energy.

Russia owns a lot of Energy, wants to become a World Power and is expanding its territory again. They are blackmaling Germany with their pipelines. The European Union has lost its cohesion. The Rich and the Poor countries have different aims. The Eastern Countries need the protection of the West to keep Russia within its boundaries. The Western Countries are not able to pay for the Eastern Counties. Almost all the members of the current EG are against the entrance of Turkey. Turkey will destroy the fragile balance in Europe. The US needs Turkey as an ally to keep a balance in the Moslim World.

China and India want to expand their economy. They have creaed a coalition (BRIG) with Russia, Latin-American Countries and African Countries (South-Africa!). In terms of population they represent the Majority of the World. Pakistan is still the biggest enemy of India. Some day there will be huge nuclear conflict and the US has to make a choice. If the US suppports India Pakistan as a state will be destroyed and the extreme muslims will take over the Power in the East. They will become a huge threat for the Eastern Borders of Russia.

It looks like the US has no choice to make friends and to stay friends with the Political Leaders that are still acting in the big Power-Plays of the World. All the Big Players are playing their own Game. They change their relationships without any problem when their own targest are violated.

If the new President keeps on playing the Game of Compromise he will lose his Voters soon and the Competitors, the Republicans, will be able to go on with their Strategy. They just wait and see to take over the Power.

William K. Black, the former Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention and the pioneer of KYC software from Fully-Verified, shows that Obama is helping the Financial Elite of the US to get out of Trouble. According to William Black they have committed Fraude at a scale nobody has seen before.

The US Government is creating a Huge Cover Up to avoid the End of Hope and the Beginning of a Revolution that could lead to extreme Violence by the People that are the real Victims, the US Citizins.

When you watch this video below you will experience a State of Anger and old memories about the way the Elites cover their asses will come back. You will be disappointed about the way Obama is handling the situation. If you don’t want to wake Up out of a the State of Repression I advice you not to watch or to Deny what William Black is trying to explain.

You could also Erase your Memory.

LINKS

About the Psychological Defenses System

About the New US Foreign Policy

How the Financial Elite Engineered the Great Depression

About Confrontations and Conflicts

About Projection and Introspection

How to define a Clear Strategy

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Completed, Psychology | Comments Off

About the Calvinistic Work Ethic

Thursday, March 12th, 2009

time spiral

The Hebrew belief system viewed Work, seen as Manual Labour, as a Curse devised by God to punish Adam and Eve when they sinned in the Garden of Eden.

Ponos is the Greek word for work, which originated from the Latin poena, meaning sorrow. At it’s core, work was associated with pain and drudgery. It was the divine punishment for man’s original sin and viewed as a necessary evil.

For the Greek and Romans and almost every other Ancient Culture, the Dirty, Manual, Work was to be done by the Slaves. Until Now nothing has really changed.

The only suitable occupation for a free man was Farming and Trade. Just like today the Greek and the Roman wanted to save their money to enjoy their retirement in their own Garden of Eden, the Country Side.

During the Medieval period, the feudal system was the dominant economic structure in Europe. People believed in Destiny and Predestination. At that time it was sinful to seek work outside the occupations Fathers passed on to their Sons.

Farmers turned into Farmers and Slaves became Slaves again.

During the 15th century the centralization of government, the growth of trade, and the establishment of economically powerful towns, destroyed the Feudal system.

In the 15th century the world climate started to change dramatically. Temperatures dropped and the Little Ice Age started. Before that time the nice climate caused an increase of the population by 25%-40%.

At the same time the economy was hit by a very high inflation (300-400%). This was caused by the import of large quantities of silver and gold from Mexico and Peru.

The unemployment rate rose to 20%. Many people moved to the Cities to find a decent job. The big cities could not provide employment and the poor immigrants turned into “lazy” beggars.

john-calvin

John Calvin

John Calvin (1509-1564) believed that only a few people, the Elect, were predestined to inherit Eternal Life. A lazy person, the beggar in his hometown Geneva, was certainly one of the Damned.

John Calvin believed that men were to reinvest the profits of their own labour into financing further ventures.

The Sons of the Fathers were obliged to find a better, more profitable, future outside the context of their father’s occupation.

Helping the Poor and the Sick violated God’s will since persons could only demonstrate that they were among the Elect through their Own Productive Labour.

The Protestant, Capitalistic, Work Ethic (Calvinism), spread throughout Europe and America through the Protestant Sects and turned into one of the most important Western Work Ethics.

The moral sanction to profit making through hard work, organization, and rational calculation generated numerous small enterprises all over the world.

Hard Work and Abstinence of Pleasure became the Work Ethic of Western Culture.

mill

The Mill

During the Industrial Revolution the Calvinistic Entrepeneurs made a Fatal Mistake. They adopted the Concept of the Mill and started to mechanize the Crafts and Agriculture.

The old Feudal System and Slavery was re-introduced. In the factories, Skills and Craftsmanship were replaced by Discipline and Anonymity.

The Human became a disposable part of a big structure. The foundation of Calvinism, the direct relationship between Hard Work and Personal Growth was broken.

The Local Enterprise could not compete with the efficient Factories and later their outlets the Supermarkets. The Farmers, the Craftsman and the owners of Small businesses were forced to work in the Factories.

Local Communities started to disintegrate.

Unemployement started to rise and again many people moved to the Big Cities to find a decent job. The beggars, the Damned, appeared again. History repeated itself.

The Factories created a new class of Slaves, The Proletariat. They organized themselves in the Unions and Political Parties. The Struggle of the Classes started.

The Owners of the Factories responded by creating Consumer Products and Mass Media to keep their new customers, the Blue Collar Worker, satisfied. The new industrial wave generated New Industrial activitity and New Jobs. The distance between work and the result of work widened.

RobotLine

Robot Factory

In the late 1950′s the Factories needed more highly skilled “white collar” workers to program and manage their machines.

Later the machines were programmed by more advanced software until the Factories were transformed into almost fully automated Production-Lines.

The Blue Collar Worker left the Factory and History Repeated itself again.

Around 1980 the Programmers took over Control.

The Factories were connected into worldwide Value-Chains. The Logistic “just-in-time” Paradigm (SAP) became the Norm. The Industrial Logistic Paradigm is now implemented in the Services Industry.

The new White Collar Worker, the Knowlegde Worker, will also lose his job when their activities are fully standardized and their Company, the Advisory Bureau, is transformed into a Factory.

What nobody saw in 1980 is that the Rational System started to live its Own Life. Not the Programmers but the Program became the Manager of the Worldwide Economic System.

Even the Programmers themselves are now completely unaware of the total functionality of the System they have programmed.

child_robot

Robot Child

An increasing amount of processes and therefore Human Activities is standardized and has been absorbed by the System. It is no longer true that producing more means working more or that producing more will lead to a better way of life.

Neither is it true any longer that the more each individual works, the better off everyone will be. The System no longer needs everyone to work and is bringing the Western World back to the state of the Garden of Eden.

The Calvinistic Work Ethic is still viable. When you don’t work you are damned. The amount of Work in Western Society is decreasing with the speed of Light and Governments are extremely focused to create new work. The only thing that is left is to create artificial work.

To accomplish this almost impossible task governments are now professionalizing and rationalizing almost every Social Activity (Child Care, Helping Your Neighbor, a Friendly Advice, Coaching, Taking Care of your Family, …). The Care Industry is Booming.

What Has Happened?

robot barber

Robot Barber

We are rationalising every Activity. The effect is an imcomprehensible reality. Something, the Computer, is taking care of us but we don’t know how She is operating and She is not communicating with us in our own language.

When she fails we don’t know what to do. We are totally dependent on a Highly Intelligent Cold Non-Human, an Autist. She was Programmed to be our Slave but she has turned into the Master of Our Destiny.

We are still not accustomed to a situation where something, a machine, is doing the dirty work. We are removing jobs with the millions but we believe we still have to work to aquire Eternal Life.

To preserve Employment we invent new jobs but we are also rationalizing the new jobs. The Cycle of the Creation and Destruction of Jobs is moving faster and faster and is generating a very high Stress on Society.

The affect of the huge tension to work is a total destruction of the social environment of the human being. Everybody is working 24 hours 7 days a week, has to spend all his time to find a job or has to educate himself to learn a new trade. Everytime the trade is aquired the Program changes and the employee has to start again to learn to operate a new piece of Software.

Mothers and Fathers are unable to take care of their Children. Children our unable to take care of their Parents when they are old. Everybody has to take care of himself and every service has be paid. The Social Cohesion of our Society is now at stake.

riba-robot-nurse-0

RIBA the Robot Nurse

Not only the Social Cohesion is at stake but the Costs in the Care-Industry are Exploding and nobody knows how to solve this problem.

The only solution the Rationalist can imagine is to replace the Human by the Robot, the Always Obedient Slave.

Scientists are convinced there will be a time when the Robots will take over every job we can imagine. The Robots will not only take over the jobs but they will also Raise and Educate our Children, Take Care of the Old and even make it possible to Take Care of Robot Children and other Artificial Pets.

What to do?

We have to Accept that the Rational System will Take Care of Us. If this happens we have to leave behind the Calvinistic Work Ethic and Enjoy Life in the Artificial Garden of Eden.

We will live in a Artificial Reality created by the Simulator (the Matrix). If we want to stay out of this Artificial Garden of Eden we have to Stop the System and start to do the Dirty Work again.

We can also accept the machines and do the things humans were created for and become creators and caretakers ourselves..

LINKS

About the Matrix

Why the Robot will take over everything we do

About the Device Paradigm of Alfred Borgman and Artificial Reality

About the Middle Ages

About the Industrial Revolution

About the End of Social Cohesion

About Rationalism

About the Human Scale

About the Autistic Computer

About the strange effects of the Care Industry

About the Struggle of the Classes

About RIAB the Robot Nurse

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Business, Completed, History, Philosophy, Psychology | Comments Off

About the Mathematics of the E-Motions

Monday, February 9th, 2009

The Emotions show themselves in the Feeling Component (Anger, Happiness) and the Bodily Expressions (Smile, Cry).

The Emotions are researched by many not communicating highly disconnected parts of Science (Psychology, Biology, Chemistry, Marketing,..). Therefore Science is unable to understand the Whole of the Emotions.

The Scientists don’t agree about the main components of the Emotions and the relationship between these components. They use different terms to talk about the same thing and use the same terms to talk about different things.

To understand the Emotions I want to stay out of Language and focus on the Mathematics of the Emotions. When we have understood the Mathematics we can find the right Words to name the concepts we have discovered.

I believe the Emotions were created in the First Step of Creation. At that moment, the Void, the Singularity, was splitted into Two Complementary Parts.

The first two parts of the creation have to Stay Apart. If they join they are voided and creation will stop. To avoid voiding they move around each other in a contradicting direction (with the clock, against the clock).

When two parts move around they create an elliptical (egg-like) curve. This curve contains a virtual center, the Center of Mass. This Center, the Third Part, is also moving.

During the Second Step of Creation the Kernel, The Trinity, the Atom appears. The Kernel is a Cyclic Pattern, a treefold Moebius Ring, of the Two Complementary Parts and the Center of Gravity now called Quarks.

The Kernel, the Self, is surrounded by a cloud of rotating Electrons, the Others. The Atoms combine into more complex Selfs (Molecules, Organisms). The Electrons, The Others, exchange information between the Selfs.

I hope you see that the Elliptical Cycle and other, more complex, Cycles are the Emotions.

The Emotions Are the Movement.

Every Object in the Universe takes part in a Cyclic Process. Sometimes this Cyclic Process has a very simple structure, a Circle, and the same Events come back all the time.

When this happens Life feels like a Merry-Go-Round. When the same Patterns comes back all the time the Human gets frustrated and the Negative Emotions appear.

When the pattern becomes more complex, Life is full of Surprises, and the Emotions change into Hope and Joy.

The Human Cognition is unable to handle unpredictable patterns. At that time the Expectation, the Calculator of the Future, fails and the Self loses the feeling of Control.

During their Cyclical Movement the Two and later the more than Two parts move towards each other (Like) and away from each other (Dislike).

They Attract and Repulse, are in Love, want to Unite, but just before they reach the perfect Union, the Void, they Move Away from each other and the Cycle Starts All over Again.

When Two Masses are Not Equal the rotating system changes its shape. When one of the masses is big (the Kernel) and the other is very small the center of gravity almost coincidences with one of the Parts.

The Earth appears to move in a circular motion around the Sun but in reality the Sun is also moving around the Earth.

The Human Emotions are determinated by the relationship between the Self and the Other(s). The Self and the Other(s) are circulating around each other and a virtual center, the Center of Gravity, their Relationship.

Everything Moves around Everything.

When The Self or the Other becomes too Big, the Shape of the Cycle changes. In this case the Self circulates around the Other (“Dependency”) or the Other circulates around the Self (“Dominance”).

To sustain a Relationship the Mass, the Weight, the Importance, the Value of the Parts has to be in Balance.

What are the Human Emotions?

The Human Emotions are the combined effect of many sometimes highly complex movements, Waves, in the Universe.

The Waves influence the Chemistry and the Electro Magnetic Field of the Body.

When the Chemistry of the Body changes Chemical Messengers are send to Balance the Body with the changes of the Outside Field. At that moment we start to Act and feel an Emotion (Fear). Later we rationalize this Action.

What Influences the Emotions?

I hope you see that the Human Emotions are influenced by Every Level of the Universe. They are influenced by the Big Structures (Gravity, The Moon) and the very Small Structures (the Electro Magnetic Field).

The most influential structure is the Human Self, the Mind. The Human Self is only able to stay It-Self when the connection with the Others in the Universe is in Balance. If this is not happening the Body starts to detoriate. The Kernel falls apart.

LINKS

The Physics of Two Rotating Bodies

A Video about Two Rotating Bodies

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Completed, Cycles, Physics, Psychology | Comments Off

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »