Posts Tagged ‘smart computing’

Status Report Future Center Smart Systems

Saturday, July 12th, 2014

The Future Center Smart Systems was launched the 23th of April 2014. After the launch a part of the participants wanted to be part of the process.

Intake

To support this process we have created an intake-procedure  to make sure that the issue at stake is related to Smart Systems and that it is possible to move on if we detect an interesting connection between the possible participant, current participants and LIACS.

Funding

An important issue in this case is funding. Funding is possible if the participant has a personal budget or if it possible to acquire a budget based on a shared proposal.

In this case Subsidies, Government Funding (Local/Global Investment Funds), Corporate Funding  or Private Funding (“Angels”) are possible. We are now connected with all kinds of investors.   If we are able to create a successful business-case funding is almost sure.

Business-Case

The Future Center uses a Innovation Management Toolset that makes it possible to assess an opportunity in short time. The use of the Toolset is not for free. If you don’t have private funding you need about Euro 5,000 Private Capital to acquire money.

Networks

The Future Center is situated in Leiden and is connected to LIACS (Leiden Institute of Advanced Computing Science).

Currently we have made connections with the Region of Leiden, the Province of South Holland, the International Alliance of Future Centers and Europe of the Regions. LIACS is part of an International Scientific Networks. We are also connected to many Local, Regional, National and International Business Networks or Companies. This makes it possible to explore every Business, Government or Scientific opportunity.

Transforming IT-Professionals

Smart Systens will have a huge impact on Society, the IT-branche and of course on the users of IT (Consumers & Companies). To support this big (digital) transformation we have made contact with the NGI (the Dutch Organization of IT Professinals).

They have created a link with the Future Center in their SIG-structure (Special Interest Groups). Together with them we are defining a training program to help IT Professionals move to the next step.

Based on the Path of Change Model we use we have defined four basic views called Business Analist (Process, Sensors, Facts), Data Analist (Models, Analytics), Innovator (Imagination, Vision, Insight) and Community Manager (Social, Networks). The views can be combined into twelve roles that correspond with the Games of Path of Change.

Network of Smart Systems Specialists

We have made a connection with an International Network of Specialist that are already creating or supporting the creation of Smart Systems. This network is a Closed Cooperative that wants to maintain the high quality of people by sharing knowledge, experience, insight and customers.

We are now creating the Dutch part of this network. The network uses balloting by two members to enter. If you think you have the high quality needed send an email.

Connecting Small & Medium Enterprises

Although Big Companies are welcome we believe that the coming transformation will be done by networks of Small & Medium Enterprises.

Projects

This link contains the current portfolio. We are finishing an attempt to create a Smart System Architecture. A new project related to Smart Vital Infrastructure is in the making. At this moment the majority of the participants are busy in Smart Healthcare.

 

About the Next Wave of the Kondratiev Cycle

Thursday, April 17th, 2014

The Future Center Smart Systems will be launched, 23-4-2014 in the Hague.

To prepare for the interactive part of the meeting this document has been written to provide some Food for Thought.

What is a Future Center?

A Future Center is a place to connect and innovate. We want to create an environment that facilitates interaction and stimulates collaborative action. We want to support cross-innovation and make it possible to make new combinations. Last but not least we want you to challenge Science to produce valuable insights at the right time and the right place.

A Future Center is a Smart System. At this moment it is an interaction system that helps Humans to innovate. In the Future we wil automate the Future Center and automate the innovation-process itself.

What is a Smart System?

A Smart System looks like a human being. It is equipped with a Sensory-Motor-System, a Mind, Imagination and Emotions.

Smart Systems senses the outside (and his inside) world with much more sensors-types than the five sensors of his human look-a-like.

A Smart System is able to react very fast with its predefined processes on a event that is detected by its sensors.

A Smart System is an adaptable system. It is able to analyze and improve its behavior, communicate with a human being and other Smart Systems in an understandable way.

Smart Systems are there to compensate the human biases. Smart Systems are able to transform and optimize everything that contains some kind of structure.

Smart Systems  can optimize software, data and content using software/data/text-mining, analyze patterns, predict the short and sometimes the long term.

Smart Systems are perfectly suited to provide the knowledge needed and answer the questions humans ask. They are able to train humans in an almost real situation using simulators.

Smart Systems can be fun to play with.

About Cycles

In 1931 the US Department of Commerce assigned Edward Dewey the task of discovering the cause and underlying dynamics of the Great Depression. Dewey created a special institute called the Foundation for the Study of Cycles that is still in existence.

The most interesting observation of Dewey is that Cycles restore themselves all the time and are connected by a Harmonic (“Musical”) Pattern. Dewey discovered that we cannot control the Cycles.  Ups and downs are a fact of life.

The most researched Cycle in history by far is the Kondratiev-Cycle named after the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev. The Kondratiev Cycle has a periodicity of 52 years.

The Kondratiev arises from the combination of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors.

In the year 2000 the Kondratiev was at his top and is now in a decline that will take 26 years.

Currently we are in  the Kondratiev Spring Phase. It is the time of what Schumpeter, a big fan of Kondratiev, called Creative Destruction.

The old structures are dying and the new structures that will start the new upward wave are created.  It is a time of tremendous disruptions.

About the Software Factory

The last wave that started around 1950 was dominated by the rise of the centralized computer.

This computer was based on the factory-model of Henry Ford and Frederick Winslow Taylor of the previous wave.

Between 1950-2000 isolated creative programmers united in big software factories that are controlled by unified standardized methods and processes. Between 1950-2000 the programmers automated their own processes.

The methods are now transformed into standardized (BPML-)process-models that are abstracted into standardized (VDML-) business models that are filled with Industry-Models. An example is the ARTS-model that covers Retail.

Creative programmers are now replaced by creative business-modelers.

About the Next Wave, The Network of the Human Mind

On Christmas 1990 Tim Berners-Lee working at CERN published the first version of The World Wide Web. He launched the theme for the next wave, The Network.

From 1950 until 2000 the causal linear manual processes were automated but now the next level, the network of the human mind is at stake.

At the end of this wave around 2040 or much earlier as some people predict, the machines will imitate and surpass the human because they will unite in a global brain that can be connected to our Brains if we want that to happen.

At this moment we are creating the memory-banks of the Global Brain by producing billions of connected parts that contain complete human life’s, theories, music, movies, measurements and much more that we are now unable to imagine.

A Short Scenario for the Next Forty Years

It is clear that the Business-Domain-Models will speed up the process of value-chain-integration and value-chain-reversal.

This means that the customer will be in control of the value-chain en there will be direct contact between customer and producer. Value-chain-integration will in the end remove all the intermediaries in the value chain.

Value chains will finally converge into one standardized value chain. Best-practices of separate value-chains will become leaders in the new value-chain. Cross-innovation, combining the best of all worlds, is the way to move on.

To give customers control of the value-chain producers have to simplify their products and make it possible for the customers to create their own version of the product they want.

Products have to become configurations of simple building blocks that can be split into variable parts and infrastructure.  Product-configurators will connect to other configurators. This makes it possible to create completely new combinations.

In the next step the data that is produced by the systems will be analyzed and processes will not be controlled by human made models but by models that are created by statistical pattern recognition tools. The systems will understand humans and predict human behavior and adapt themselves to the human needs.

In the last stage the software will produce an image that reduces the complexity of its whole. It will create a virtual human world that gives us the illusion that we are still in control.

At that time most people will play and not work.

Challenges

The most important question you have to ask yourself is if your company is part of the “old world” that will finally be destructed by creativity or is already part of the new wave.

The big problem is change management,  how to move from the current state to a for most companies and institutions unknown future. Companies, Institutions and People have to transform their collaboration patterns,  their software, their data and their expertise.

The change process is accelerating. Almost all companies and institutions (and governments) are stuck in their installed base of software and their hierarchical organization structure that is not created to respond fast to the challenges that come from the outside word.

LINKS

About Smart Systems

Launch Future Center Smart Systems

Thursday, February 27th, 2014

Wednesday the 23th of April 2014 13:00 – 17:00 we want to launch the Future Center Smart Systems.

The meeting will take place in the Living Lab of the The Hague Centre for Innovation, 2nd floor Campus Den Haag, Schouwburgstraat 2, 2511 VA Den Haag.

The Future Center is an initiative of LIACS, Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science and Constable Research BV.

A Future Center is a place of dialogue and innovation.

Scientific research needs complicated real-life problems to solve to improve their theories. R&D wants to use proven solutions to improve or innovate their products or services.

R&D and Science can easily work together if the long-term strategy of Science matches with the short-term needs of Industry and Government. That is why we need to have a permanent dialogue.

We want to start a dialogue about Smart Systems between Scientific Research and the R&D of big and small companies and government agencies.

Smart Systems are and will be everywhere. Smart Systems control the car you (still) drive and the planes you fly. Smart Systems trade on the stock market, diagnose your illness and design sustainable buildings.

Smart Systems will manage courts & lawyers, cities, logistics and food safety. Smart Systems will entertain you and will stimulate your imagination. Smart Systems will even help you to innovate.

They are a combination of Analytics (Big Data), Artificial Intelligence, Expert Systems, Process/Case-Managers, Robots, Sensors (The Internet of Things), Simulators, Games, Intelligent User-Interaction (Augmented & Virtual Reality) and Social Networks.

The Smart Systems Future Center aims to help you find out what is happening with new technologies and its applications, what is already possible and what will be possible in the future.

We also want to discuss the big impact Smart Systems will have on our society. Many experts believe Smart Systems will lead to a huge increase of unemployment not only on the level of the not educated people but also on the level of the highly educated.

Others believe that the Smart Systems (“the machines, the robots”) will take over the World. They believe that this moment called the Singularity is near.  It is certain that Smart Systems will disrupt almost every company in the world. 

To prepare you for the future we want to connect people, companies and government agencies. We want to participate in projects and start the development of new research, new services or companies. We can also help with the funding of these projects.

In the first meeting representatives of other Future Centers in the Netherlands (ABN AMRO, Tax Office, Ministry of Infrastucture) will share their experiences, we want to tell you about the state of the art in Big Data and have an interactive discussion about our future plans and priorities and how you want to be part of this dialogue.

The amount of people of the first meeting is limited. After the first meeting we will organize many other meetings in which we will discuss a specialized subject. We will announce these meetings in the Linkedin group Smart Technology Network. If you join this closed network you will be always up-to-date.

If you are interested to come to the meeting or want to be informed by email about what we are doing please send an email to hans.konstapel@gmail.com. If you know people who could be interested to join our Future Center please forward this link to them.

About Self-Aware Autonomous (Smart) Systems

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

global brainWhen a Search Engine crawls the web and indexes information so that you can access it quickly, the search engine is doing Proactive Computation.

Servers don’t wait for you to execute a search query to start crawling the web; they are being proactive because it takes Too Much Time to find and index what you want.

The Sensory Motor System of Our Body is constantly performing Proactive Computing because it has to be Ready to Act, when something happens that is fatal to the Body.

In a State of Arousal  the Sensory Motor System Reacts with predefined Scripts (Impulses).  The Sensory System fails completely when there is too much data available (Overload, Panic).

The Sensory Motor Computer is not able to calculate exactly what the Body really needs because it does not have the time and the capacity to calculate every possibility. Therefore the Human Body sometimes makes terrible mistakes, called a Gognitive Bias, when it is Highly Stressed.

The Rational System, the Human Predictor of the Future, the Expectation,  is able to override the Sensory Motor System when there is enough Relaxation, Time and Capacity available. This State of Mind is called Reflection.

To Reflect the System needs enough Data, Provided by the Senses and our Memory, and a Model, a Believe System, that describes the Context we want to Evaluate.  Most of the time we are unable to collect the Facts or to define a suitable Model. We See what our Believe System guided by our Experiences in the Past wants Us to See.

The Imagination creates the images we See. Sometimes the Images are made by the Senses. We see Reality as it Really is. Most of the Time the Imagination projects the Images of the Reflection System. We See what our Believe System wants us to See.

The most interesting part of the Imagination is related to the Dream World, the Unconsciousness. The Dream World projects the Images we Have to See. They contain a “hidden meaning“, something we have to know but are unable to Express.

Making a Choice is one of the most difficult things to do. The Emotional System, the Oldest System in our Body, acts on the basis of Feelings. It wants to move to a situation where there is enough Certainty to Survive (Food, Shelter, Love,….) and avoids situations that are threatening to the Existence of the Body.

The Reflective System transforms Human Feelings into Values, Preferences and Selection Criteria.

The big problem is that the Emotions (the Movers, Our Moti-vation) change all the time because they are influenced by Situations (the Context), Others (Status) and all kinds of Fields in the Environment (Gravity (Moon), the Electro Magnetic Field).

The fifth human system, the Consciousness, monitors the four “organs” (the Senses, the Expectation, the Emotions and the Imagination) to make sure they stay in the right balance.

What Model do we Use?

The model we use is called Path of Change (see also this link (in Dutch)).

Path of Change is a generic fractal (scale-free) model that can be used to model an autonomous system on many scales.

What is Happening?

The Computer is a Cold Rational Calculator without any Emotions. The Computer is therefore perfectly suited to Support, Complement and Replace the Heavely Biased Impulsive Unconscious Emotional Human Being.

According to Forrester Research ,a big Advisory Bureau, we are moving into a New Wave of Computing called Smart Computing. Big IT-Companies like IBM (“Smart Planet“), Oracle and of course Google (“Implementing the Singularity of Kurzweil“) are now completely redefining their strategy to be able to Move with the New Wave.

The Amount of Available Computer Memory, the Capacity to Calculate in Real-Time and the Intelligence of the Pro-Active Algorithms and Reaction Scripts is increasing by the day and the Costs of  Computing are going down fast.

Smart Computing extends existing technologies by adding new real-time Situation Awareness based on Sensor Technology and Automated Analysis to help firms and people solve smarter and more complex problems.

Smart Computing integrates the Physical World of the Senses and the Body with Automatic Process Optimization via a Four Step Cycle: Awareness (Sense), (Statistical) Analysis (Reflect), (Generate) Alternatives (Feel, Evaluate, Select & Choose) and Act -> Sense.

Smart Systems look like Smart People.

What has Happened?

Until recently IT-Technology was only able to Replace the Repetitive, Predictable, Processes on a Very Small Scale. Most of the Humans soon get Bored by these processes. They need a little bit of Exitement (Arousal, Challenge, Change) to feel the Joy of Living.

The Repetitive processes are part of the Human Motor System, the Muscles. Until 1970 IT-Technology was only able to automate Manual Processes. Before that time many People made their living from these processes. At this moment Process Management (Workflow) and Case Management, have reached the level of maturity.

The introduction of the Internet Protocol, the Increase of the Capacity of the Infrastructure (Broadband, Glass Fiber, Optical Switches) and the Standards defined by the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) have widened the Scale of the Automation of the Manual Processes until the World Level was reached.

One of the most exiting new standards of W3C are related to the Semantic Web. The Semantic Web will make it possible to Reason with the Data that is available on the Internet.

The Semantic Web will generate a Revolution in the Educational System (“Just in Time Learning“) because everybody will be able to Ask every Question that is possible. The Experts will not be needed anymore.

All kinds of processes in all kinds of Industries are now connected and are constantly redefined until every “useless” intermediary proces is removed. This trend is called Value Chain Integration.

The introduction of the PC and the Intelligent User-Interface opened up the Market to the Consumer and started a new wave of Value Chain Integration. Direct contact between Producer and Consumer is now possible. This development is called Supply Chain Reversal. Chain Reversal gives the customer the control of the complete supply chain.

Because of their Software Legacy most of the Companies have not opened up their Private Old Fashioned Infrastructures to their Customers and their Producers. If every company would do this many companies would disappear.

This is the main reason why these companies are not transforming their business. Most people (and companies) are Afraid to Reflect about their own Death. They wait until the Last Moment. At that time it is too Late to make a change.

The Removal of “Useless Manual Processes” (and “Useless Employees“) is now highly stimulated by the Economic Crisis, the Energy Crisis and the Climate Crisis.

The User-Interface made it possible to make a  Connection with the Organ of Imagination. This started a Creative Phase in IT. Humans are now able to create their own Books, Music, Art and are able to Play Collective Games and use Simulators to Explore Alternatives in an almost Real Life Environment. The Creative Wave has almost destroyed the Old Fashioned Amusement Industry.

At this moment the Social Media (Facebook, Linked in, Twitter,..) are exploding. They are mostly used to have a dialogue (Chat, Forums,…) between people in a Network. The Social Media make it possible to make a Connection with the Organ of the Emotions (the Opinions) of large groups of people all over the World.

The Social Networks give us the Opportunity to Feel what is Happening and make it possible to Influence (and Manipulate) the Masses.

What is Smart Computing?

The next wave,  Smart Computing,  adds two things, new Senses that are able to Sense much more than the Human is capable of and Artificial Intelligence (AI, Big Data, Reflection), the possibility to Detect and generate Scripts that are much more advanced than any pattern that is available in the Human Being.

AI can be used to analyze data (data mining), text (text mining), software (software mining) and processes (process mining).

One of the most important “Sensors” a this moment  is the Mobile Phone. Many people fail to understand the significant sensor innovations that are being designed into smartphones. Today’s smartphones contain microphones, cameras, motion sensors, proximity sensors, and location sensors.

New internet-connected GPS applications also have built-in feedback loops, reporting your speed and using it to estimate arrival time in real time.

Don’t underestimate the “other Sensors” like the Social Networks, Smart Energy Meters, Global Satellite Monitor Systems, Earth-Based Integrated Camera Systems and Medical Sensors that are able to detect all kinds of Physical Changes in Your Body.

In the next step Smart Sensors will be incorporated in the Clothes you Wear and of course your Body (if you allow that!).

Soon the Collective Technical Infrastructure, the Global Brain, will be able to Alert, Control, Manipulate and Support the many people that live on Earth. When this happens the Role of the Humans in the System will be the same as the Cells in the Body.

To make sure that one of the “Organs” will not  Dominate the Global Brain we have to incorporate a Monitor, a Global Conscioussness.

What can we do with Smart Computing?

When the Sensors are everywhere you are able to measure everything you want with a High Precision and a Fast Sample Time (Frequency).

The Sample Measurements can be Added Anytime you want (Real Time) and transformed into Transactions with a Flexible Price.

This Price is calculated by Adding the Real Time Transactions that are related to the Components You Buy subtracted by the Real Time Information of the Costs you are making.  Smart Computing makes it possible to create a complete Autonomous Real Time Company.

You can measure human transport (movement), chemicals, temperature, pressure on every location and react to the these measurements on a real-time basis based on a highly advanced prediction system based on neural nets.  In this way you can prevent traffic jams, calamaties and every other event that is predictable.

You can create highly sustainable processes in Food and Energy and Educate people Just-in-Time about Everything they want.

Software will be able to read billions of documents real-time and use the knowledge to diagnose every problem you want. With the help of this software (called Semantic Analytics) IBM’s Doctor Watson project will soon deliver an automatic Doctor that will know more than all the Doctors in the World.

It will also be possible to Design and Simulate every Structure you want and generate the Structure when you are satisfied.

Designing a House or a complete City will look like a Collaborative Game and Building can be done by everybody including Robots because “the System” will tell you what to do.

The Banking System will return to its ancient roots and will keep the Transaction-System in Short and Long Term Balance.

Will it be possible to incorporate the Human Emotions in a Machine?

Some Scientists  think that the Universe is already an Emotional Machine, a Quantum Computer Creating Itself. The Emotions are a Random Quantum Fluctuation, a Wheel of Fortune, to make it possible that the Universes Explore Every Possible Path. The Unpredictable Human Emotions are the Source of Creation.

Predictable Automated Emotions are not Creative because they lack the ability to make Mistakes. Making Mistakes and Learning from Mistakes are the Motor of the Proces of Innovation.

Machines without Emotions are more Reliable than Machines with Emotions but the Machines will stay the Same until their Emotional Human Creator has Invented a new Type or a new Theory.

At this moment the Robots are Instruments but it will not take long until we give the Instruments the Freedom to Act because they are more Reliable (less Emotional) and much more Cheaper than a Human Being.

If this happens many people will be Out of Work. The only thing that will be left over for us is the Act of Creation and of course the Care for Others.

If we are able to Incorporate the Emotions into the Machines we, the Humans, will be Completely Out of Work.

The Machines will be able to Create new Types of Sensors, Robots, Systems and Theories until Eternity. The Machines will take Care of Themselves and of course You.

The Programmed Robot Nurse, the Robotic Pilot, the Robotic Money Market Trader, the Robot Soldier, the Robotic Surgeon and the Robot Barber are already there.

They wait Patiently until their Human Creator will give them a Soul.

LINKS

About Collaborative Learning

The Forrester Report about Smart Computing

About Smart Cities

About Autarkic Systems

About Just-in-Time-Learning

About the Smart Planet of IBM

About the Smart Strategy of Google

About Semantic Analytics and Dr. Watson

About the Next Wave of Artificial Intelligence

Why the Universe is a Quantum Computer Creating Itself

Why the Robots will take over every job there is

Why the Human sometimes makes terrible mistakes

About the Automatic Need Machine

About the Global Consciousness

About the Care Industry

About Just in Time Learning

About Erving Goffmann and the Games People Play

How to Incorporate Mistakes in Programming Languages

About the Global Brain

Why we will soon be completely Out of Work

About the Sensory Motor System

About the Emotions