The Kondratiev Wave predicts the long term behavior of the Economy. If you look at the Kondratiev Wave, the next stage after the Depression (Winter) is called Spring. Spring is the Time of the Seeds (new Ideas). They where harvested in Autumn. During the time of the Winter the seeds are dormant.
When the Harvest was rich, Winter is a time of Contemplation and Rest. Nature hibernates. Plants, Trees and many Animals sleep and are in the state of the Unconsciousness. When the Harvest was poor, Winter is a time of big trouble.
There will be shortages of Food and Fuel. When the Harvest was poor Winter is a time of Social Unrest and even Social Conflict. During the Kondratiev Winter Big Wars are fought and the Dark Side of the Unconscioussness shows itself in the extreme rise of Psychological Problems (Stress, Addictions, Paranoid) and Dark Religious Movements.
During Winter Shares, Paper money and other Imaginary forms of Wealth are worthless. When you want to buy something you have to deliver real value (Cash, Gold, Silver).
It is very clear that You can Make Big Money during a cold winter when you have gathered a huge pile of primary commodities (“raw materials”). During Winter raw materials are exchanged for other raw materials. When you don’t have access to these materials the only thing that is left for you is Charity.
When you are the owner of raw materials and you are making a lot of money you are Making Use of the Situation. During a cold winter you have to give to the poor and the sick. To make it very clear Making Big Money during a Depression is a Crime.
When you are Rich you can accumulate Social Value by giving away your Material Wealth to Others. During a Depression Material Wealth has to be transformed into Social Wealth to prevent a Social Conflict. This investment will pay back with a lot of social interest during Spring and Summer.
Unconditional Giving, Charity, is a very old fashioned concept. At this moment we “give” a loan for equipment financing or whatever reason, and we “ask” interest but “giving and asking” are really “demanding”. We want to make sure that what we give will be returned in the same state. More Money for Money, an Two Eyes for an One Eye.
When we don’t want to deepen the down path of the Depression we have to leave behind the Behavior of the Expansion phase of the Cycle, Summer. When the Economy expands it is “easy” to accumulate Wealth. Loans and interest are helpful to bridge a temporary dip in the flow of cash. Summer is a time of fast moving Ups and Downs in the Economy (Recessions).
It is not strange that we are copying the behavior of the Summer. Long Term Cycles just like very fast moving Cycles are not noticed by the Human. They are generational. The pattern repeats every 50 to 60 year so the people that must be Aware of the current situation are Old. They are the grandmothers and the grandfathers, the older people (>75).
Moving through a Depression needs Wisdom and a Long Term View. A Depression is the time to Listen to the Older Generation. Hopefully they have Learned from their Mistakes at that time.
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